More than a puncher’s chance

Bill Connelly explains what gives me hope for tomorrow.

This game was clinched nearly a month ago, and we’ve been waiting to see if either stumbles before the finish line. They did not.

Alabama was slightly less dominant in November than earlier, but the Tide have been remarkable at erasing hope. Per their SB Nation stat profile, their post-game win expectancy (a statistical look at in-game dominance) was 100 percent in all 12 wins. For comparison, 12-0 Clemson hit that mark nine times, 11-0 UCF six times, and 12-0 Notre Dame just three times. Bama’s been on a different level this year.

Georgia has too, of late. The Dawgs have been at 96 percent post-game win expectancy or higher in 10 of 11 wins (only the Missouri game was in any doubt) and averaged 98 percent since losing to LSU. If they can finish drives with touchdowns instead of field goals, they can give Bama a battle.

The Georgia team that got embarrassed in Baton Rouge would be beyond hope facing the Alabama juggernaut.  The Georgia team of the last five games of the regular season is much better and more complete than any other team Alabama has faced this year.  That’s what matters in Saturday’s game.

Is that enough to win?  Can’t say, although I’m certainly not putting any money on it.  But it’s certainly enough to make me believe Georgia’s gonna make Alabama work for whatever it gets tomorrow.

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25 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football

25 responses to “More than a puncher’s chance

  1. If we can sustain some drives, I think it comes down to the last 5 minutes. If we start going 3 and out a bunch, we’re going to get trucked.

    We have to limit Alabama to about 9-10 possessions. If they get 12-14 possessions, I don’t see a path to victory.

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  2. Uglydawg.

    Some Bama fans are already celebrating. The thought that Georgia could win has never even crossed their dull minds. Ignoring and refusing to acknowledge January’s gifted fortune, they blissfully believe the Tide is invincible.
    Alabama is the favorite, but they will have to actually beat a better team than they’ve ever seen to win.

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  3. Gaskilldawg

    I am really confident. I am not going all Joe Namath and guaranteeing a win, but I see us going toe to toe and being in position to win. We have a real chance, not just a puncher’s chance.

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    • Russ

      I agree. We are peaking at the right time, and Bama has been gliding so long, they may not know what to do if pushed in the second half. I will guarantee that we’ll play better than any other team Bama has faced this year.

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  4. J-DawG

    We have to strike first and early, as in first series from scrimmage. Bama’s never been behind on points at any point this year. Let’s see how they operate from a deficit. Will they try to score fast or sustain a drive? I still like our chances in a shootout.

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  5. mwo

    I hope that UGA wins the game due to several blown calls by officials. It wouldn’t bother me in the least if the Dawgs get outplayed but are gifted the title. I know that is asking a lot but hey it’s almost Christmas.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Texas Dawg

      A blown call going against Alabama? You would have a better chance of finding Santa’s sleigh being pulled by Unicorns while the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy were riding shot gun handing out lamps with a magic genie inside.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Derek

        Here’s your Santa’s sleigh being pulled by Unicorns while the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy are riding shot gun handing out lamps with a magic genie inside.

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        • Texas Dawg

          And that was possibly the last blown call that has gone against Alabama. Maybe we get lucky and the “blown call going against Alabama” is on a 53 year cycle.

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        • Bruce Lauriault

          My first Georgia game, I will always remember that Alabama players had two different helmet colors.

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        • BMan

          What was up with Alabama players wearing different helmets? Some guys on D were in the normal crimson helmets and other guys playing at the same time were in white helmets.

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    • Macallanlover

      Surprised I haven’t seen this discussed this week: for the officials’ conspiracy guys, and the money is everything guys, UHA is in the unique position to receive several blown calls going their way tomorrow. No, maybe not as many as went against us in January during the 2nd half, but enough to win a game that is reasonably close..

      The only way Sankey and the SEC can possibly double-dip by getting 2 of the 4 playoff spots is for UGA to win this game. Bama wins, we are out, UGA wins we are in and the team that is too good to fail will come on at #4. Watch for it, Dawgs win! Thank you officials (never thought I could say that.)

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      • Uglydawg.

        Something I do every game I watch…just watch closely where a runner goes down or out of bounds. Then watch the ref and see where he spots the ball. I’m telling you some of the assholes cheat on almost every down. It can add up…just a half yard per play adds up. And tell me this..why does a ref need to look back and see where the first down marker is before he spots the ball? The spot should be made before he even considers if it’s a first. Looking at the marker proves (to this paranoid ass, anyway) that the zebra has an interest in either helping or screwing the offense.
        Be sure to watch this…I’m hoping it’s fair but I’m afraid it won’t be. There are a lot of times, esp. late in the first half, when I wish Kirby would challenge a spot just to show them they’re not fooling anyone. Probably been a lot of letters written to he SEC officials in Tuskingham, but the problem persists.
        PLEASE, just be honest and fair tomorrow.

        Liked by 1 person

  6. Will Trane

    Well, here they are, the Dawgs, eleven months later and facing the gods of football again. The Tide, the evil gods of the college football world, lead by Saban [just change that b to a t] stand in the way of the Dawgs, again.
    This time the Tide is full arrayed … all those outlandish stats, greatest QB of all time [the kid who put a 41 yard fork in the Dawgs last January and turned the hope into darkness in a flash], roster of all 5 stars, coaching staff even the pros do not have … so pray tell us why in hell are the Dawgs even going over to play them.
    Nobody gives the young, inexperienced Dawg team a chance…not even a whisper of a chance…just go over there and take your ass beating…truth be known all those bettors take that 13.5 because they know the Tide will push the margin past 24. How much do you think a Jeff Schultz and Mark Bradley put down on the Tide?
    Just wondering how Pittman plans to handle the gaps and tech with this young, patched up O line. Will Gillard go the entire game and can he handle their nose tackle.
    Tide sprung a surprise on Dawgs last year. Dawgs have had a few weeks to work in some new sets. Have they and will they. Just wondering if Chaney will use a two back set in this game. Even some old fashioned “I”, and just go straight up on them.
    Oliva Newton-John wants to know just how physical will the Dawgs be in this game. Does Kirgy, Pittman, and Tucker know, and have it figured out. And can Kirby control himself on the sideline during this game.
    Speed to the edge. Defense. Now Tech ain’t Bama, and nor was Kentucky, but the Dawgs defense seems to have some speed and quickness as of late.
    Can Tyson Campbell get locked in and play up to his potential, as well as the entire secondary. Going to find how good Tucker is vs Tide passing game.
    None of that matters…just walk over, and congratulate them Dawgs…after all the whole Tide kingdom and football writers, etc. say you will get beat big time.

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  7. I think they still have a talent advantage on us but I believe all of the intangibles are on our side.

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  8. TXBaller

    My Cowboys shocked the world last night….my Dawgs will do the same!

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  9. Warthen

    Somewhere, Trenton Thompson will be sitting on a couch watching. I will always wonder what the narrative of this game would have been if he’d stayed.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Macallanlover

      Unfortunately, I don’t think it would have been much different. I had high hopes for TT when he arrived but something was always off with him. Hope he gets his life together but the football opportunity seemed to fall behind something else. Good luck to him. The guys we have for tomorrow are improving and seem to be laying it all out the past few weeks, I would play the hand we have.

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