A little Sugar Bowl talk

Eh, why not?

I’ll use Pete Fiutak’s preview as a jumping off point.  First, he’s got a few neat factoids worth sharing:

  • “(Jake Fromm) has thrown just one pick since the loss to LSU in mid-October.”
  • “The Texas defense can be hammered really, really hard by good, efficient passers, giving up 240 yards or more eight times. In the last nine games, Texas has allowed 19 touchdown passes with just five picks.”
  • “Georgia should dominate on third downs. Again, Fromm is terrifically effective, helping the offense finish second in the SEC and 11th in the nation converting 48% of its chances. Texas? It gives away third down conversion like M&M’s, allowing teams to convert over 44% of the time. Over the last six games, offenses are connecting on 50% or more their chances.”

If Fromm is his usual efficient, effective self — and, on paper at least, it appears the Texas defense may be willing to accommodate him — it’s hard to see how the Dawgs don’t approach their seasonal scoring average against D-1 teams of 38.7 ppg.

Also worth noting is that Georgia has beaten eleven of its thirteen opponents this season by double-digit margins, while nine of Texas’ regular season games were decided by seven points or fewer.

Fiutak thinks the bowl game will boil down to Georgia’s attitude and that while the team will start out sluggishly, it will eventually grind its way to covering the spread.  Considering that’s how a number of Georgia’s regular season games played out, that’s not a bad assumption.

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28 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

28 responses to “A little Sugar Bowl talk

  1. I am starting to worry about the team’s mentality going to New Orleans. There seems to be a lot of happy talk about this … almost to the point of a political talking point.

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    • Russ

      Yeah, that worries me, too. On paper, we should hammer them, but Texas has the capability to play well/above themselves (they killed OU the first time around except for a furious OU rally to make it close). I want to thump them with no mercy, but I’m afraid we may be lucky to squeak out an ugly win.

      If we line up and run it down their throats to start out, then Fromm will eat them alive later in the game. We will need a good pass rush or Ehlinger and his two big receivers will make some hay against our two youngsters at corner.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Bat City Dawg

        i was at the first OU/TX and it was a weird game. Honestly I was never too impressed with Texas despite the fact that they were up big. OU plays zero defense and didn’t bother to try and stop the QB from running. We need to limit QB runs because that is how they get the tough yards, sort of like Tebow.

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    • PTC DAWG

      42-24 Good guys. Don’t fret.

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  2. I’ve read a little bit of their own homer coverage (like we have ours). These guys writing are delusional. It’s their fan base commenting in that gives it any balance at all.

    Texas hasn’t been hit like they are going to get hit all year… And while they keep talking about OU’S line is comparable – OU’s line does not run down hill very often.

    These guys haven’t seen this kind of mass and athleticism come straight at them likely in their lives…

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    • Russ

      That’s a good point about running attacks. OU does run the ball very well, but that’s because they spread the defense out and Kyler Murray slows down the rush. We need to line up and just mash them up front, both sides of the ball.

      Ehlinger will run a bit (I think he’s one of their leading rushers) and he likes contact. Well, we need to give him lots of contact.

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  3. Hogbody Spradlin

    Thanks. Made my coffee taste a little better.

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  4. JoshG

    We should beat them and cover. Of course, we should’ve beaten LSU too, and there was more to play for. I think we’ll show up to play.

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  5. Aladawg

    I could easily be wrong and extreme talent differences could easily win the day, but discounting the disappointments in the 2 biggest game and playing in a fashion show off broadway spell a lack of excitement. I think we play like we do not really care. I am ashamed to say it but I’m not sure I do. The Baker thing, while a good decision for him, is a bad thing for our team and fans. If it all turns out good then Ok , I’m wrong.

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  6. Russ

    Man, that article was horrible in terms of editing. It reads like Futiak posted that straight from first draft at 4 a.m. after last call. I’ve read high school papers that were better.

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  7. Biggen

    We should be able to choke them out with our running attack in the last 3rd/4th quarter. They haven’t seen an Oline like ours.

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  8. Whiskeydawg

    I believe the Dawgs will go to the Sugar Bowl and look like the national championship caliber team it is.

    Liked by 1 person

    • moe pritchett

      I’m cautiously optimistic,but I agree to a point . The feeling is the Dawgs show up a bit miffed at being left out of the CFP. The D front seven and the OL both need to play angry as a unit.

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      • Russ

        I hope we play with the same attitude as 2008 against Hawaii. Team was pissed to be left out of the NCG and played like it. I hope we have a huge chip on our shoulder and play angry.

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      • J-DawG

        The perfect scenario would be first if Clemson destroys ND by at least 21 points proving that ND never should have been there in the first place, and second if we cover and surpass the spread against TX. The committee then has rotten egg all over their face for leaving the Dawgs out. Also, Bama destroys OU.

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        • J-DawG

          So far, two of the three pieces of the puzzle have fallen into place. All we have to do is take care of business with TX. If we handle TX offense the way Bama did OU in the first half we have made our point and the committee will have to give us due consideration next season if we get to that point.

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  9. 6claude

    I think the pass rush and penetration from the defensive front have improved a lot the last few games. We’ll see more of that in the Sugar Bowl.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Tony Barnfart

      Agreed. I’m of the opinion that we guard advanced pass rushing concepts like an offensive coordinator guards his best trick plays. There’s simply no other explanation for why we lagged in certain stats for much of the year and then were able to mug Tua. If you can keep a blitz or exotic concept off the scouting tape, it is much harder to stop in an in-game adjustment.

      The advanced stats back up that approach as our pass-D overall was top notch. Obviously, Baker being out is an X-factor now but we were absolutely the most positive example possible of “bend don’t break” defense that could rely on sustained coverage with a disciplined pocket squeeze just dangerous enough to alter timing on routes.

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      • Mayor

        I’m not as certain that Baker won’t play, particularly in a pinch. He’ll be suited up and on the sidelines. Plus, he’s still practicing.

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  10. TMC DAWG

    If 2019 is going to be our year, it begins January 1st.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Mayor

    I’ll take a one point victory and be happy. What time is it in Texas? 10 to 9.

    Liked by 2 people

  12. illinidawg

    We just decided to wait to drive down Sunday instead of tomorrow. The weather sucks and I want to see the games tomorrow.

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  13. Macallanlover

    I realize we have the talent advantage, stats support us being a superior team, but with Texas being the more motivated team about the matchup,and needing a big win to solidify Herman’s turn around of their program, I can’t say I am comfortable that we handle them easy or cover.

    The Fields distraction, Baker’s reversal about playing, injuries to Walker, Cook, Davis, etc., etc.; something just seems off. Even the bowl practices feel like we didn’t have much time to devote to this game. Our last practice was Friday, and we just landed in Naw’lins yesterday after the Christmas break. It is a bowl so weird things happen. Wouldn’t shock me if we handle them as easily as we did most all of the schedule, nor if they pass us dizzy with our re-scrambled secondary.

    I care as much as ever for UGA, and them doing well, but have to admit some of the intensity is just not there this year. And it isn’t because of us not being in the playoffs again.

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