Kirbs lays the BS on a little thick with this:
“I wasn’t surprised as high as he went. I thought it would be interesting to see (Michel) went versus (Nick Chubb) because their styles are so different. But in the case where so many kids don’t want to play their last game because they are worried about injury, I really think Sony jumped 20 or 30 picks in his last two games.
“You can say ‘I might get hurt’ or ‘I might go back in the draft’ … well, here’s a guy who was probably going into the playoffs a second-round or maybe third-round pick. And he jumped all the way to the first, which we all know is a large margin.”
Get back to me when one of your kids skips a playoff game, man.
Get The Picture 
Not BS at all. Rose Bowl shot Sony into the first round.
Not running him instead of Chubb in the 4th of the National Championship cost us the title and is BS however.
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“But in the case where so many kids don’t want to play their last game because they are worried about injury…” doesn’t apply to kids looking to improve their draft status or are playing in a postseason game with a national title at stake, so, yeah, to that extent, it’s BS.
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Who says you have to be looking to improve your draft status to actually improve your draft status? Are you saying the chances of getting injured playing in a playoff game are less than a non playoff game?
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C’mon, you know that’s not what I’m saying. It’s basic cost/benefit analysis here. There’s a lot more at stake in a CFP semi-final game than there is playing in the Music City Bowl, or even, sad to say, the Sugar Bowl against an 8-4 team.
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Yes I did know that. If someone is an early first round pick it may make sense to not play. However, if your not then how do you know that by you not playing that someone or several someones who elects to play an has an amazing game doesn’t leap over you in the draft costing you significant money?
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How is that any different than what I said in the comment you replied to?
Kirby’s trying to make a point with an example that isn’t relevant to every kid. To that extent, it’s BS.
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It applies because there are probably quite a few student athletes every year that aren’t looking to improve their draft status but really should be.
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Every college coach at a program like UGA makes sure his players looking to the NFL know their draft status.
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Kirby’s not saying that Michel played last year to improve his draft status, but I believe it’s true that by playing, he DID improve his draft status.
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That’s who he’s talking about. He’s merely using Sony as an illustration of why that’s misguided.
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Did his draft stock really improve that much though just from those 2 games? I thought he was predicted to go in the first round before the playoffs. I don’t really follow all the mock draft stuff or NFL football anyway, so I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m totally wrong about that.
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Likely, yes. High stakes games against elite teams are generally compelling film for players to the pro scouts trying to set draft boards than reps against Vandy and Nichols State.
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???? Sony was averaging 7 yards per carry against Alabama. Chubb was averaging less than two.
Michel also averaged more yards per carry than Chubb for the entire 2016 and 2017 seasons. There’s a reason he was drafted earlier.
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I’ve always thought Michel was likely going to be a better pro than Chubb. Never underestimate Chubb’s work ethic as the great equalizer … and I don’t mean that to say Sony doesn’t work hard. Both are DGDs.
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Chubb was great at Georgia during his last two seasons and will likely be really good in the pros, but the fact is, his knee injury probably took away his ability to be one of the greatest tailbacks the world has ever known. He was averaging 8 ypc and was the front runner for the Heisman Trophy before the 2015 Tennessee injury. That is completely nuts.
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That’s true. The reason I thought Sony was slightly the better NFL prospect was that I thought Michel looked more like a 3-down back while in college. Bobo used him in the slot and as a runner his freshman year. He was definitely a bigger part of the passing game during his time at Georgia. He seemed to be a better pass protection guy as well. He also did a ton on special teams.
Chubb was a monster from the time of Gurley’s suspension until his Kneeland experience.
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I believe it has been established that Sony wasn’t near 100% at that games end.
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Good comment Jack, especially the last words about not using Sony (or Fromm) in the 4th quarter last January.
I understand a player who has been, or is, injured sitting, but that is about it. Running back is probably the riskiest position in terms of injury on any one given play, healthy cornerbacks rarely get hurt (and there is always insurance as decent offset to the small risk Baker would have been taking.) He should have played, and I understand the rationale of the differing opinions.
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Insurance policies are worth $5 millions tops, Baker would have been risking roughly $16 million. #Math
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I understand the math, and why I said an offset, and not a total loss. I suspect a one game risk for a debilitating injury could be obtained for more money as the risk is substantially reduced versus a total season.
I feel the “lesser” player has more at risk than the guaranteed early round draft choice. Baker, in your example, would get a paltry $5mm payoff for the unlikely incident, the marginal guy may have slightly more upside but a more dramatic loss from an injury that may deny him a total loss of a chance at the golden ring. Take Mecole as an example. He wasn’t going to do anything to get himself to the top layer of the draft, but an injury to his legs could have made him too high a risk to spend any money on. And you know he was already thinking about declaring this past December. Not being able to make a decent bonus, and then fall short of the 5 years necessary to get NFL retirement benefits is a much bigger loss than Baker from $16MM down to $5MM. Mecole may have never made $50K in a single year in his lifetime versus getting a large paycheck for life and insurance benefits. Baker could put his feet up in the burbs and never work, Hardeman could spend his life staying ahead of the repo man. I think that was a bigger risk.
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I think you’re wrong about Mecole not having a chance to move up the draft board with his Sugar Bowl performance. If he had torched Texas for triple digit yards and a few scores, and maybe ran a kick back, it likely would have turned the heads of a scout or two. In any event, I see your point, but Baker risking $16m and falling back on $5m results in an $11m loss. Mecole would risk roughly $4m as a third round pick (that’s my guess on how early he could realistically get drafted), and fall back on $50k which is a $3.95m loss.
I get that $5m is quite literally 100 times better than $50k as a fall back plan, so for your example in the case of Hardman the question comes down to what you value more. A tentative shot at $4 million if you grade out well at the combine and sit out the Sugar Bowl? Or playing in the game with an opportunity to breakout to solidify/improve your stock? There have been a lot of players who have made some money for themselves in Bowl games (Marcus Howard and JaMarcus Russell come to mind), and I can’t think of any non-qb’s that have lost money because of poor play (injuries not withstanding).
Either way, Baker is pretty much banging his head against the ceiling with his draft grade. Not a ton of room to improve, plus if he plays against Texas they’re likely only going to throw his way once or twice the whole game, so why risk having to go low to make a tackle on an end around?
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I’m sure Sony’s last two games helped in how was perceived, but I think Belichick being so active in looking at the running backs at Georgia’s Pro day probably played a role too. If Belichick and the Patriots didn’t take him in the first round, where might he have dropped to? Who knows? To play or not to play. That is the question. Everyone has their own answer, and there probably isn’t a wrong one.
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I agree Sony improved his draft status by staying a 4th year and being in the playoffs. Text book example of a player showing his talent, maturity, and leadership on the biggest stage in cfb.
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Baker staying his senior year really helped his draft stock. I think he could have solidified it a bit if he played the Sugar Bowl and locked down the bigger receivers. However, he could also have slipped a bit if he struggled against the bigger receivers. I think injury was a distant third risk, personally, but then it’s not my millions I’m gambling, whatever the odds.
Kirby’s point is valid in Sony’s case, and I don’t blame him for pointing it out as a potential outcome for future players trying to decide whether or not to play.
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Sony was hurt in the 4th quarter of the national Championship game. That’s why he wasn’t in there. Please know your facts before posting. That’s BS.
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I’ve never seen this reported anywhere. Do you have a source. If true, that would be some truly spectacular bad luck against Bama (losing Wims, Michel in 2017 and Walker in 2018)
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