S&P+ look at Georgia’s 2019 schedule

Inspired by this exercise at Roll ‘Bama Roll, I thought I’d break down Georgia’s schedule on the basis of Bill Connelly’s just-released S&P+ preseason rankings.  Here’s what you get:

  • @ Vanderbilt 53
  • Murray State [FCS]
  • Arkansas State 70
  • Notre Dame 12
  • @ Tennessee 21
  • South Carolina 18
  • Kentucky 37
  • v. Florida 6
  • Missouri 16
  • @ Auburn 8
  • Texas A&M 13
  • @ Georgia Tech 89

That works out to an average ranking of 31.18.  Alabama’s schedule averages out to 38, if you’re wondering.  (The difference is largely driven by the teams’ non-conference scheduling.  They do share four common opponents – Tennessee, South Carolina, Auburn and TAMU.)

On paper, that is no walk in the park, particularly with regard to the lengthy stretch between the Arkansas State and Georgia Tech **snicker** games.  Average ranking for those eight games?  16.38.  That’s a pretty stern gauntlet to run.  Kirby’s got his work cut out for him.

27 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

27 responses to “S&P+ look at Georgia’s 2019 schedule

  1. PTC DAWG

    GT @ 89…D, JD

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Debby Balcer

    I know several teams have a bye week before they play us. Does Alabama face that same challenge? Also where do I find my IP address on my phone. Pop ups are an issue today for the first time in a long time. I had to turn java off to read the blog without being redirected.

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    • stoopnagle

      Murray State, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Missouri, and Auburn play us after open dates. We have open dates before UT and UF. I am seriously worried about the UF, MU, and AU gauntlet.

      Alabama has LSU and MSU back to back with each coming off an open date; but Bama has an open date before LSU.

      In 2010, Bama played at South Carolina (L), Ole Miss (W), at Tennessee (W), LSU (L), MSU (W), and Auburn (L) after each team’s open date. Interestingly, they lost the games where they also had an open date the prior week. SC, Ole Miss, UT, LSU and MSU were in consecutive weeks. Bama went 10-3 that year. That’s definitely worse than what we’re facing this fall and 2010 was a pretty stacked team for them.

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      • Russ

        At Auburn after their bye, and then A&M the next week really worry me. At least A&M will be pretty beat up by the time they get to Athens.

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      • W Cobb Dawg

        Wow, I don’t like the looks of that patch from ND to Thanksgiving. With five sec opponents having bye weeks!

        Glad to see Greg Mediocrity is setting up the schedule for our maximum benefit.

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  3. Squatchdawg

    I am very concerned with A&M. They were coming on strong last year.

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  4. Salty Dawg

    I hope the Dawgs will have their collective shit together before Norte Dame, especially after playing #70, Arkansas State. They better not think they can phone it in like the you-know-what-game. Just right off the bat, I think the Dawgs can handle and win that schedule. GO DAWGS!

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    • Spur 21

      I worry about ND as well – particularly all those “tweets” about which team belonged in the 4 team playoff. Dumb – dumb – dumb kids…………….

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  5. Doyle Hargraves

    Tough not see us taking 2 losses, but being really good. Question to anyone that can help cause I can’t figure it out, If we recruit at the same or higher level, and the rankings bear that even going back to the Richt days, how does Clemson end up with a better roster? I understand the senior defensive lineman coming back last year, but they’re still stacked. Is it just rarely ever missing on evaluating recruits? They hardly ever miss on receivers. And 2nd, but probably more important, why does Venables name never come up for HC openings? Dabo’s not going anywhere, his schtick doesn’t fit the NFL..too gimmicky, and they’re probably about the same age. I’ll hang up and listen

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    • Silver Creek Dawg

      Venables has a son on the Clemson team and has been adamant about coaching him. I’d always though he’d end up at his alma mater Kansas State, but Snyder was hellbent on his son getting the job.

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    • Scott

      Klempsen coaches ‘em up by addin supplements to the cornbread…

      Like

  6. Since we are looking down the road….those rankings will change, with the exception of N.D. (early on schedule) as the schedule goes, every team could have one loss by the time UGA plays that team, plus FU, barners and a & m could be three loss records….i know, you’ll say so could UGA…..don’t do it! GO DAWGS!

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  7. Biggus Rickus

    I expect Georgia will handle the East about as easily as the last two years and might lose to Notre Dame, Auburn or Texas A&M. I still think they’ll go 11-1 or 12-0. I also expect that Tennessee is overranked here. South Carolina might be as well.

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    • sniffer

      I think Dinich said our hardest game was Auburn and I see some here that are worried about that game. Folks, it’s still a Gus Malzahn led, “we don’t know what our mascot name should be”, overrated bunch of pussies. Can we lose? I guess. Will we? Hell no. Bring on those cousin marrying, All In,
      holier than thou, cheatin, turd stools. I’d say, fuck ‘em, but I have standards.

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    • California dawg

      I predict another single loss during regular season with us back in Atlanta facing Bama, and that’s contingent on Fromm staying healthy, If he gets injured, well I don’t even want to think about that right now.

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    • Biggus Dickus

      How do you feel about Mizzou at 16?

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  8. Mayor

    While agree it is a difficult schedule let me go on the record that several teams on this schedule are ranked too high. FU at 6…wrong!! Auburn at 8…hell no! ND at 12…we all know what the Irish are and the lie they are living. ATM at 13…a possibility but probably not that high. UT at 21….he’s joking—right?

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    • ASEF

      S&P* preseason ratings are not W-L projections. They are a blend of returning production and recruiting. And they are ratings. Looking at the rankings is misleading.

      Take Tennessee. They’re ranked 21, but their rating is way closer to #80 than #1. There’s a 20 point rating gap between 1 and 17. There’s a 20 point gap between 17 and 92.

      Add a couple of five stars, bring back a team that went Year Zero Youth Movement, and Tennessee could be one of the tougher opponents within the pack of average CFB teams. Hence #21.

      There is no way a conference this loaded is going to generate this many ranked teams based on Ws and Ls.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Mayor

        I get that this is not a W-L projection ASEF. But it is a preseason national ranking. How in the world can anybody with a right mind say that UT is the #21 team in the nation? The BOTTOM team in the SEC East last year. Lost ALL its conference games the year before. Unlike some other posters on this blog I think Pruitt is a capable HC and he seems to be putting together a decent staff, but there isn’t any talent on that roster–at least not any experienced talent. And, BTW, one of their best players on offense from last year just took a graduate transfer out of KnoxVegas to Athens for next season–how does that help them? And not just UT but the whole thing is screwed up. FU #6? Auburn #8? Mizzou is better than Texas? The methodology used to formulate this “ranking” is total bullshit. Personally I’m getting a little miffed at all the pseudo-science being peddled about CFB these days and this is right at the top of the list.

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  9. This is some damn fine journalism here. I love the data dive, and it makes an daunting schedule all the more transparent as a beast. A one loss Georgia team has a legit shot at the CFP.

    Senator, I have no reason to venture to any other Dawg site but yours.

    I give you the Pelosi clap, sir.

    Like

  10. DoubleDawg1318

    Auburn has a habit of being good when no one expects them to be and being bad when people have high expectations. That said, I just don’t see them being particularly good next year. They’ll always have enough blue chippers to beat anyone on any given day, but I just don’t see them being great next year. Texas A&M on the other hand should be very good.

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    • 81Dog

      I have to ask: how long can we let Tech keep dragging our strength of schedule down? I know, MAYHEM. IS COMING (in Capri Pants, hopefully with a stretchy waistband after coach Jeff hits the Waffle House), but come on. Good thing we have Arkansas State to lift the average a bit

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  11. 92 grad

    I like to keep things in perspective. Ill always be happy to win our division and compete in the championship game. Just have a solid season in conference and I believe that our team is set up to do that. It’s a damn fine schedule and will be a fun season.

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  12. Spike

    Beat Florida.

    Like