The lost season

Bill Connelly’s updated his 2013 S&P+ rankings and the results confirm everything I’ve thought about that shitty season as I watched it unfold and when I think back upon it afterwards, namely that an otherworldly offense was derailed by a decade’s worth of injuries incurred over a few weeks and finished off by a defense that was not so otherworldly.

The details, if you’re of a mind to see, are that Georgia’s offense, despite missing key parts over much of the year, still managed to finish with Bill’s eighth best ranking.  The defense ranks 33rd, better than, say Oklahoma’s defense last season, but not good enough to hold things together as the offense broke down mid-season.  Overall, Georgia finished a mere tenth of a point behind Auburn in S&P+.  (It’s worth wondering how much that would have changed if you know what hadn’t happened.)

Speaking of Auburn, Gus’ lucky rabbit’s foot should have won the Heisman that season.

Second-order win totals suggest Auburn should have been more like a 9-5 team than 12-2 in 2013. The Tigers had just a 15 percent post-game win expectancy in the 34-28 win over Alabama, 36 percent in the 45-41 win over Texas A&M, 38 percent in the 43-38 win over Georgia, and 43 percent in the 31-24 win over Washington State. For that matter, they were only at 52 percent against Mississippi State and 69 percent against Ole Miss.

Jeez, that’s ridiculous.

Did I mention how much I hate the Neyland Stadium turf?  Argh.

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31 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

31 responses to “The lost season

  1. Bigshot

    AU was incredibly lucky that year. It gave the Aubies false hope and they bought into the idea that Gus was a great coach.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Hobnail_Boot

    Still one of the most infuriating games I’ve been to, despite getting the W.

    Like

  3. stoopnagle

    And now here we are. Hope Kirby can win on the road in the west this year.

    Like

  4. Biggus Rickus

    FSU’s defense fell from 2 to 17 with the departure of Pruitt. I doubt him as a head coach, but the man knows what to do with a defense.

    Liked by 1 person

    • My impression of Pruitt is based on that 2014 game against Clemson. We struggled on defense in the first half. Pruitt made adjustments, and we suffocated them in that 2nd half. Too bad he couldn’t do the same thing later that year against Florida in what was a truly horrible performance by our defense.

      Like

      • Biggus Rickus

        That was the worst individual performance of his entire DC career, I think. I still don’t understand that game. Their dominance of a much better run-first spread team a couple of weeks later only made it more confusing and infuriating.

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        • I don’t know if it was akin to Vanderbilt 1994, but it seemed like the team wanted to be somewhere else after the Gurley suspension was upheld by the NCAA that week.

          I think Jordan Jenkins said a year later that they didn’t take Florida seriously and got whipped.

          That game was the run version of Auburn 1999 with Treon Harris playing the role of Ben Leard.

          Like

          • Mayor

            It occurred to me at the time that the loss was because of an emotional let down because of what happened with Gurley. It also occurred to me that players might have laid down because they were pissed off at McGarity and CMR over the way UGA basically threw Gurley under the bus. I know it certainly pissed me off.

            Liked by 1 person

          • Gaskilldawg

            We beat Vanderbilt 44-17 in 2014. Do you mean Vanderbilt 2013? That is when we took a 13 point lead into the 4th quarter and Pruitt ‘s group gave up 17 straight points? I realize that the godawful targeting call on the 4th down incompletion gave Vandy an undeserved first down, and Swann’s fumbled punt gave Vandy the ball on about our 40, but the rules did permit our defense to keep Vandy from scoring.

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        • Gaskilldawg

          That UF game may have been his worst, but I would nominate the 2015 Tennessee game. We had a 21 point lead with 3 and a half minutes left in the half, and had UT on 4th and about 9 with 2 minutes to go. UT converted and outscored us 35-7 the in the last 33 minutes.

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  5. That 2013 offense (pre-Kneeland) is the best I’ve seen at Georgia. We could run, and we could throw. We could line up in the I and run power (or the toss or play-action). We could spread it out and throw it all over the field (or run).

    Like

  6. Gurkha Dawg

    30 years from now ( if I live that long ) we’ll still be talking about that game and shaking our heads.

    Like

  7. Tony Barnfart

    I was at Kneeland. Left at halftime thinking blowout–wife is a UT grad and we had our 10 month old there (and it was HOT). I don’t really regret the decision, not only did we watch from the parking lot, but it was also the most pyrrhic victory ever.
    Auburn was almost the total inverse. Aaron Murray’s performance was the best individual performance I have seen as a Dawg fan (only 20 yrs).
    If I have any soft criticisms of the overall theme of our offense, it’s that I’d love to see a little more 2013 Murray in Fromm and a little more multiple looks like we had in that era. At the Gruden QB camp, there’s a reason he said “nobody pushes the ball down the field better than Georgia that I’ve seen.” Man, i wish that was still true.
    But, I suppose there are pluses and minuses in both, if you believe (as I do) that all of it flows together in a zero sum game. The current iteration of the Dawgs is certainly more reliable against 90% of our foes–we play with a philosophy and theme of controlling the tempo of the game and crushing them with fresh depth, something Richt’s teams never really had. But I never worried about those 2012-13 offenses against even the most elite competition.

    Like

    • Pretty sure … Gary Danielson said something similar during the Murray-Mett showdown in 2013 about the Georgia passing game. It was something to the effect of he was there for an entire practice that week and never saw a ball hit the ground.

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      • Mayor

        Murray is now playing for the Atlanta AAF team–and IMHO is better than about half the starters in the NFL. Those NFL “experts” have it in their heads that you have to be 6’4″ and weigh 250 to play QB. Except for Super Bowl winners Seattle and NO–and also Cleveland now– who seem to be doing just fine with guys only about 6 feet.

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        • PTC DAWG

          All of the NFL guys aren’t wrong, otherwise, he would be on a roster.

          Like

          • UGA’13

            I’m convinced Murray just doesn’t show well in practice. He’s a good-great game day QB, but there has to be a reason none of the NFL teams gave him a chance. Even Atlanta had him second string until they were 0-3 and their starter got hurt.

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            • Mayor

              You’re probably right. About the practice thing. But Murray was and I believe still is the all-time passing leader in the SEC. How did that happen if he wasn’t a really good QB. I think Murray should go to the teams I mentioned above and try to get on as a backup. Murray’s a clone of Drew Brees.

              Like

            • Doug

              And Murray started the season at second string behind Matt Simms, last seen stinking it up in 2010 and ’11 for the Vols. I had to Google him just to refresh my memory of who he was.

              Murray must be a bad-practice/good-gameday type of player, otherwise putting him behind Simms is just straight-up coaching malpractice.

              Like

            • AdaWg

              That’s the same argument they use for Tebow. It’s not true in either case. Great college QB, poor in the pros.

              Like

  8. ugafidelis

    That day at Tennessee was a nightmare.

    Like

  9. 79Dawg

    For pure entertainment purposes, 2013 was probably the best season for me. Games against LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Auburn and Tech that were all epic (was at them all): how loud Sanford was on LSU’s last drive, the joy of the Tennessee fans when they thought they had come back to win, running off half a quarter against Florida to seal the game, the stunned silence in Auburn and then watching Murray lead us back down the field for one last try, and seeing the Tech fans’ tears as they thought they finally had us there only to see us pull it out at the end!
    And after all that, I still remember walking along North Avenue and being in disbelief when someone in the crowd started talking about the end of the Iron Bowl!
    What could have been if not for some BS calls in Nashville and a complete emotional letdown against Missouri….

    Like

  10. AdaWg

    Brother, even my wife doesn’t bring up shit from that long ago anymore. It’s over, let’s collectively move on.

    Like

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