Boom goes the turnover margin.

In addition to appearing on Finebaum to talk about the ‘Cocks, Seth Emerson ($$) also penned something about the state of the program in Columbia.  It’s good stuff, although I don’t think there are any real surprising takes on Will Muschamp’s team right now.  The talent level has slowly been rebuilt from the bare cupboard Spurrier left, although South Carolina isn’t recruiting at the same elite level Clemson and Georgia are, the offense and defense are far from the conference’s worst, and that schedule is absolutely brutal.  All told, it’s easy to see why Seth is looking at a 7-5 season for them.

The thing is, seven wins is what Will Muschamp is basically good for as a head coach.  He’s got seven seasons under his belt in the SEC.  Five of those season have seen win totals ranging from four on the low side to seven; four of those, he’s tallied six or seven.  It’s what he does.

Boom has had two breakout seasons, one at Florida and one at South Carolina.  Not coincidentally, they’ve both come when his teams have notched their best turnover margins during his time in each place.  Here’s the breakdown:

  • 2011 (UF):  7-6; -12
  • 2012 (UF):  11-2; +15
  • 2013 (UF):  4-8; -2
  • 2014 (UF):  6-5; +6
  • 2016 (SC):  6-7; +7
  • 2017 (SC):  9-4; +11
  • 2018 (SC):  7-6; -5

In 2012 and 2017, turnover margin masked some real shortcomings with his teams’ offenses.  In 2018, SC’s offense was actually pretty decent (as Seth notes, the ‘Cocks were sixth in the SEC in yards-per-play last season), but the negative turnover margin hurt.  Jake Bentley threw 14 picks, tops in the conference.

Given the schedule, it’s hard to see how Muschamp’s team can expect much if it doesn’t get turnover margin into positive territory. If things stay in the hole, bowl eligibility may become a real question.

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24 Comments

Filed under Agent Muschamp Goes Boom

24 responses to “Boom goes the turnover margin.

  1. Mick Jagger

    I hope he gets a big win against Clemson.

    Like

    • Got Cowdog

      Me too. But that goes for any SEC school over an ACC school. With the exception of Florida, Auburn, and Tennessee. Unless they’re playing tech….

      It’s complicated.

      Like

  2. When you live by regression to the mean, you usually end up around .500 over time. How long does the USCjr faithful tolerate it while getting hammered by Clemson and Georgia consistently?

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    • j

      Go take a look at Fighting Gamecocks Forum, the chicken faithful are, by and large, still fully on board with Agent Muschamp. They continue to blame all problems on Spurrier, just like they blamed all of Spurrier’s problems on Holtz for about 5 years, it’s what they do.

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      • PDawg30577

        I’ve never been to that forum, but at VolNation — where correct spelling, sobriety and coherence in general seem to be deeply frowned upon — they do the exact same thing. They blame Butch, Dooley, Kiffin … but if anyone says anything about Cornbread, they get jumped hard.

        I have an irrational desire to see Pruitt fail, personally and spectacularly, that goes beyond my generalized dislike of Tennessee. (As opposed to Florida, which I want to see fail regardless of who the coach is.). I can’t really say that about Muschamp.

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        • JCDawg83

          I hope Muschamp fails miserably after all the trash he talked about Georgia after he was hired at UF and again at SCu. If he can drag the chickens down to depths of heretofore unseen failure and despair it will be all the better. I hope Muschamp ends up as a DC at a lower tier FCS school.

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          • Doug

            Yeah, I don’t have any particular desire to see Muschamp succeed either. I mean, I get it, you’ve taken a job at one of Georgia’s division rivals, you can’t exactly sit there and wax rhapsodic about what a great place UGA was. But he could’ve shown a little more respect than making his alma mater the butt of some (very lame) jokes.

            I don’t think I want to see him fail miserably, though. I’m fine with him hugging the Chan Gailey Line for the next decade or so—too many wins to fire him, but not enough to be relevant, and zero success against Georgia. I’d be curious to see how long ‘Cock fans would be willing to hang around in that purgatory before they got tired of making excuses.

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            • Otto

              It will be interesting to see. As much as I dislike Boom, how much better can anyone do at USCe with Clemson rolling and UGA recruiting at a high level?

              SOS was the best they have had and that was for 10 win seasons and keeping a few of the top in state recruits. Keeping those recruits is going to be very hard for anyone with 2 big rivals signing top 5 classes, and SC does not produce enough talent to support 2 top 25 teams. The biggest thing looking up for USCe is recruiting the state of Florida is wide open with their Big3 programs being down.

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  3. SpellDawg

    I remember seeing him on the tube when he was coaching UT’s defense, I believe it was the year he was dripping blood down his face from headbutting one of his players’ helmets. I thought then (and the announcers commented) he had a bright future ahead of him. Maybe he still does, but in hindsight he sure could have used a successful HC job at a smaller school before he jumped to UF.

    I think he ends up as a DC at a big school eventually; he’s under contract at USCe through 2024, I would put zero dollars on him holding on to his job through then.

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  4. Spike

    I wonder if the Cocks will hire Mullens from UF when they run his ass off from there?

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    • Otto

      He is a better coach than Boom. I posted when Sar hired him Boom wasn’t HC material. I just hope Smart doesn’t hire Boom to be DC in Athens.

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      • ApalachDawg

        I would welcome Muschamp back with open arms to coach our D. The only reason shark humper had any success with his gator teams was because of the Gator D machine that Will constructed. He knows D and is a UGA man at his core.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Macallanlover

          That might make one of you, Chump burned his bridges with me in his disavowal of all things UGA. I realize he is a friend of Kirby’s, but Kirby isn’t tone deaf. Having him back in Athens, except for another butt whipping wouldn’t go down well with many of us. He isn’t the only coach with good defensive credentials out there.

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          • Otto

            Kirby’s mentor did hire Jr to be OC at Bama. I understand the differences but…..

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          • ApalachDawg

            Understand where y’all are coming from…
            but when you know the true color of the blood of the person that everyone is blogging about and you know all that BS that was said during the talking season (and someone was paying you millions of dollars that would set your kids up), you would have a different perspective too.
            My fellow GTP-ers, trust me when i say, Muschamp bleeds red&black in his core. and is a damn good D coach. Just ask Saban.

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      • Spike

        Agreed he’s a better coach than Boom. If UGA ever hired that asshole Boom for anything after what he said about UGA I’m cashing in my chips, permanently. Boom is so overrated and a Dick, to boot.

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      • Doug

        I think Kirby inherited just enough of a mercenary streak at Alabama that he doesn’t get sentimental about coaching hires. Not enough to put Muschamp on the staff, anyway, especially if Georgia’s defense continues operating at a phenomenal level.

        As for Spike’s comment, yeah, the Gamecocks are probably already talking with Jimmy Sexton about making Mullen coach-in-waiting.

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        • Otto

          Are you sure it isn’t:
          yeah, Jimmy Sexton is probably already talking with the Gamecocks about making Mullen coach-in-waiting.

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    • Russ

      Saw a comment from a Sackerlina fan on a Gator thread about Mullen saying “we’re not taking this one when you fire him”. So, no.

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  5. I think USCjr. gets the Gators this year (though I’m not convinced that the Gators will be a “good team”

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  6. Uglydawg

    Boom’s a guy that timing doesn’t favor. He took over a reeling SC program at the same time the Clemson and UGA were really taking off.
    USCe is a weed trying to grow under the growing shade of UGA and Clemson. Boom’s just fortunate that Mullens hasn’t been able to crank up the UF recruiting machine.
    I would enjoy seeing the Gamecocks become the second best program in the SECE (well behind UGA of course).
    I actually believe the guy is probably a pretty good coach. He seems to have learned to control himself and pay more attention to the offense than he once did. But Seth is correct..Muschamp needs that breakout win.
    I too hope he gets it. I hope he gets a few..against Clemson, Tennessee and Florida…in fact, while I know it’s unlikely, I’d love to see the Gamecocks put a beat-down on all three of those.

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  7. Ben

    Emerson’s not on the Gamecock beat now, is he?

    Like