Ranking ‘dem SEC QBs

From And The Valley Shook!:

Let’s start with the quarterbacks, which you know means it’s time for my favorite ATVS tool: ATVSQBPI. The big thing to remember is that essentially ATVSQBPI is how many yards a QB is worth each time he calls his own number, whether running or passing.

ATVSQBPI = (passing yards + rushing yards – (30*interceptions) – (30*lost fumbles) + (20*passing touchdowns) + (20*rushing touchdowns))/(pass attempts + rush attempts)

No real surprises at the top, not that you were expecting any.

1. Alabama. Tua was absurdly great last season, and his numbers simply crushed everyone else in the conference. Yeah, Jalen Hurts is off to Oklahoma, but this is still the best quarterback in the SEC, and I don’t think it is especially close.

2. Georgia. The only guy you could put in Tua’s class is Jake Fromm, though I think there’s a pretty large gap. Fromm was in the pack of next best guys in the SEC, but everyone else in that group has graduated. He’s alone now in the pursuit group of Tua. It’s possible he could take another step and catch him, but that’s a lot of ground to make up.

The rest is quite interesting, though, mainly because there are so many candidates in the muddled middle, which is basically the three through eight spots.  Poseur sees LSU’s Joe Burrow as the best of that bunch, based on how he finished last season and him being a senior, and there’s certainly some validity to that argument, but for some reason the quarterback I’m keeping an eye on to step up this year — and don’t laugh! — is Tennessee’s Jarrett Guarantano.

As Poseur notes, Guarantano’s stats last season are pretty damned decent.  He’s got some skill position players to work with and he’s got an upgrade at offensive coordinator/position coach directing him.  His big problem is that he is going to be working behind a weak offensive line, but that’s something that will be limiting plenty of other peers of his.  In fact, I’d probably say that out of the middle bunch, it’ll be the guy who gets the best protection who winds up at the top of the pack.  (Deep, I know.)

Your thoughts on this year’s The Year of the Quarterback?

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13 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

13 responses to “Ranking ‘dem SEC QBs

  1. Does this stat seem to have a bias toward a dual threat QB based on the formula? A pocket passer (or a player in a system that doesn’t feature designed QB runs) is at a disadvantage using this metric.

    I’ll still take Jake Fromm State Farm as our guy over anyone else in the league. He does what we need him to … get the offense into the right play, distribute the ball, stay away from the turnover, and move the chains. He isn’t the most physically gifted or athletic, but he more than holds his own in that area.

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    • Biggus Rickus

      Four of the top five QBs from last year didn’t run, and the other wasn’t what most people would consider a dual threat. The two best runners also finished among the bottom three.

      Like

  2. Biggus Rickus

    It’s not obvious to me that Chaney’s an upgrade at OC or QB coach. I honestly don’t expect anyone to be much better than Schurmur/Franks-level by this metric once you get past Fromm, but the two most likely candidates to be in that Drew Lock area are probably Mond and Bryant, if only because they can supplement solid passing numbers with solid rushing numbers.

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    • W Cobb Dawg

      “It’s not obvious to me that Chaney’s an upgrade at OC or QB coach.”

      Agree. I’ve seen the dumping on former OC Tyler Helton as the source of utk’s problems. I guess I think more of Helton than others do, and still can’t fathom why he took the utk job to begin with. Chaney might be a slight step up, but he ain’t a friggin miracle worker. That was a legit 7 loss team last year. Chaney has one heck of an up hill battle on his hands. That team’s best hope is to improve by the other sec east teams getting worse due to attrition.

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  3. MDDawg

    “I think there’s a pretty large gap”. Agreed, Tua ain’t no Jake Fromm.

    “It’ll be the guy that gets the best protection who winds up at the top of the pack.” Careful now, Tony Barnhart might get offended at you trying to steal his schtick.

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  4. Kfoge

    What’s interesting is that the formula does not take into account the Defense. When you looked at Tua’s passer rating against the top Ds he faced last year it was not good…….

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  5. Cousin Eddie

    Tua is aided by the WRs he has to throw to. That will be the difference this year as well. I expect later in the yr for Fromms passing number to look better as the WRs get some PT and settle in.

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  6. Mayor

    Re: UT and it’s weak OL—Georgia won a lot of games and 2 SEC championships under Mark Richt with relatively weak OLs but good skill people on O, and great D. Just sayin.”

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  7. Hobnail_Boot

    For me, the wildcard is Bentley.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a good year but the Gamecocks still go 6-6. Brutal schedule.

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