S&P+ preview, Georgia edition

Bill Connelly has left SB Nation for greener pastures at ESPN, which means we don’t get a 2019 Georgia preview from him.  Fortunately, Bill has been gracious enough to do his annual Google data dump of all D-1 teams, so at least we can mine those to paint something of a picture of his statistical projections for this season.

It makes for a good comparison with the FPI numbers I posted yesterday.  Here, for example, is his schedule projection:

Screenshot_2019-07-10 2019 college football preview data

FPI version:

Georgia is favored in every game here, just as it is by FPI, but note that Tennessee is not nearly the close call ESPN finds it to be.  Auburn’s another case where the win projection is widened.  Florida is the only game both formulas project to be tighter than the norm.

This is probably the point where I should remind you that Bill’s preseason projections rest to a larger extent on 2018 results than they will as the season progresses, so take all this with a grain of salt, if you want.

Georgia finished 2018 ranked second overall in S&P+, 3rd in offense and 8th in defense.  S&P+ projects Georgia at number two again for 2019, 4th in offense and 6th in defense, with approximately 10 wins.  For context, here’s how the conference as a whole plays out on wins (order based on S&P+, ranked nationally):

1 – Alabama (10.7)
2 – Georgia (10.1)
4 – LSU (8.9)
6 – Florida (8.7)
8 – Auburn (7.8)
10 – Mississippi St (8.4)
13 – Texas A&M (6.9)
16 – Missouri (8.1)
18 – South Carolina (5.9)
21 – Tennessee (6.5)
37 – Kentucky (6.1)
39 – Ole Miss (5.4)
48 – Arkansas (5.5)
53 – Vanderbilt (4.9)

How much do you think those rankings will change as we get into the season?  Can’t say I’m too confident Mississippi State finishes tenth in S&P+.

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13 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

13 responses to “S&P+ preview, Georgia edition

  1. And the two that are supposed to close games (UF and AU) – could both end up being blow outs. Yes, UF returns 8 of 11 on defense, but the O-Line is being completely rebuilt and not being rebuilt with a lot of talent. Recruiting has been in the teens for several years in a row (and because of transfers or not qualifying) their latest class moved from 9 to 15-17 (depending on the analyst). In short – they are thin in several places. An injury here – an injury there and this team could come apart. Auburn? Who the heck knows. But if you look at the last 8 years or so, you’ll see a fairly consistent pattern of a really good team and then 3 mediocre to poor teams before another good one pops up. This will be year 2 in the cycle, breaking in a new QB. The two play each other, where I expect Auburn to win because of a better line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball – especially their D-Line verses the Gators O-Line.

    This really should be Georgia’s year, with a chance to add distance from everyone in the East, during a time when they are all getting better.

    Great to be a DAWG!

    Like

  2. stoopnagle

    The off-season is so long.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. Justin Perez

    I know my hate for the Gators blinds me but I just don’t get it this year. I trust Bill and his stats but I watched ever Gator game last year and I cannot imagine how anyone watched them and could look you in the eyes and tell you Feleipe Franks is the guy. My in-laws are Gators and to a person every single one of them wanted Emory Jones starting.

    While most of the media seems to see a program on the rise, I cannot look past their doofus head coach, relatively weak recruiting rankings, rebuilding offensive line, and a weak QB. Their D should be good but not as good as ours and truly nothing more than a standard top-half of the SEC defense (top
    40 in the country).

    Liked by 1 person

    • Russ

      Their 10-3 was pretty much just like Richt’s last season where we wound up unranked, except they somehow made it into the top 10. Top 10 teams don’t lose to Kentucky at home for the first time in 30+ years or give up 50 to Missouri.

      Like

      • Because they beat Khaki Pants. That’s the only reason they were in the top 10.

        Like

      • Justin Perez

        You are totally on point with this. Our 2015 was properly unranked while the Gators only dropped from 9 to 19 after getting beat by us and then blown out by three touchdowns at home vs. an unranked Missouri team last season.

        Like

  4. Comin' Down The Track

    Is Mickey trying to pump value into that Hillbilly game? Or what’s going on there?

    Like

  5. Argondawg

    Am i the only one that thinks the strength of UF’s team last year was the OL and it is basically gone with very, very little experience coming back to replace it? I just dont see them being able to hold up to any of the good to great DLs they are going to face. Franks is going to be running for his life.

    Like

  6. We lament the previous staffs lack of attention to depth/roster management, that very issue is what separates UGA from FU and the barners this year…the o line will be their weakness late in the season… skill athletes being their strengths, o.k…got no confidence those teams can be close in the 4th quarter (7-10 points)

    Like

    • Otto

      Auburn was highly rated last year due to returning skill positions but overlooking their OL turnover, they haven’t learned and are doing the same with UF.

      Like

  7. UGA '97

    lsu hmmmm..

    Like

  8. AceDawg

    @Auburn and home vs. A&M are the two biggest landmines to me, not a team with a new OL trying to block for Feliepe Franks against a team like us that has upgraded its pass rush almost assuredly.

    Like

  9. Mayor

    The real problem with the schedule is what you can’t see superficially….several teams that play the Dawgs have 2 weeks to get ready and get well and Georgia doesn’t. Georgia has 2 weeks to get ready for only 1 of them–Florida. I’m afraid the Dawgs stub their toes at least once and maybe more because of this. This is a big disadvantage. And the end of the season gauntlet (excluding Tech) puts the Dawgs at a physical disadvantage because of likely injuries for the SECCG.

    Like

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