Big bang theory

David Hale posted a series of tweets on a statistical topic worth your time to read.

Top 10 teams in explosive play margin were a combined 114-24 (.826) last year with an average score margin of +18.7.

The bottom 10 were 22-99 (.182) with an avg margin of -16.9.

Outliers:
Nwestern, 111th, 9-5
Army, 100th, 11-2
UVA, 99th, 8-5
Maryland, 13th, 5-7
FAU, 24th, 5-7

— That's so David (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 11, 2019

Of the top 40 teams in explosive play margin:
14 won 10+ games
20 won 9+
28 won 8+
36 made a bowl

Of the bottom 40:
2 won 10+ games
3 won 9+
5 won 8+
9 made a bowl game

— That's so David (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 11, 2019

And?

SEC actually had 5 teams in the top 20 in explosive play margin:
2. UGA
3. Bama
9. Miss St
17. Florida
18. A&M

Worst was Arkansas at 105, Tennessee at 82.

— That's so David (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 11, 2019

Wait a minute.  Fromm outdid Tua?  Well, not exactly.  Here’s the whole story.

Highest rate of offensive explosive plays:
Okla, 19.94%
Ohio, 17.88
Bama, 16.96
Ole Miss, 16.40
UCF, 16.33
A&M, 16.33
Okla St, 16.15
Memphis, 16.0
FAU, 15.93
UGA, 15.87

— That's so David (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 11, 2019

Lowest rate of defensive snaps allowing an explosive play:
Fresno St, 7.76%
Mich St, 8.18
Cal, 8.24
Wash, 8.4
UGA, 8.43
SDSU, 8.44
Temple, 8.5
Iowa, 8.5
BYU, 8.53
App St, 8.78

— That's so David (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 11, 2019

Smart and Tucker sacrificed pressure up front — you know, havoc — to keep teams from beating them with big plays.  And it worked!  That was kind of a big deal.

Why does all this matter?

Drives with an explosive play average 3.98 points.

Drives w/o an explosive play average 0.51 points.

So you’re essentially 8x better off on a drive with an explosive play. Doubt there’s a stat w/higher correlation to success than that.

— That's so David (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 11, 2019

So there’s a big question for this year’s defensive strategy:  will Smart’s new emphasis on havoc weaken Georgia’s ability to prevent the big play?  If so, what sort of impact will that have?

By the way, here’s a bonus tweet that blew me away.

Explosive Play Margin

1 Okla, +8.35% – playoff
2 UGA, +7.44% – SECCG
3 Bama, +6.56% – playoff
4 Clemson, +6.22% – playoff
5 App St, +5.32% – Sun Belt Champ
6 ND, +5.25% – playoff
7 Wash, +5.12% – P12 champ
8 Penn St, +5.12%
9 Miss St, +4.92%
10 Fresno St, +4.78% – MW Champ

— That's so David (@ADavidHaleJoint) July 11, 2019

Second.  Against Alabama.  In the SECCG.

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“We have to get creative with that.”

Care to guess what NCAA rule they’re talking about?  ($$)

“I don’t know if it’s doing what it was intended to do,” Bamford said.

“I think it should go away,” NIU athletic director Sean Frazier said.

“I don’t know if it fits in today’s world,” Kent State athletic director Joel Nielsen said.

Why, this one.

The NCAA requires an average attendance of 15,000 fans per game once every two years to maintain FBS status. But the reality is a number of programs don’t reach that mark, especially in an era in which attendance is falling across the board while the number of FBS schools has grown. Attendance has fallen in the FBS as a whole seven times in the past eight years, and it is currently at the lowest average mark since 1996, according to CBS Sports.

As a result, schools that have trouble reaching the 15,000 mark have to boost their numbers through artificial means.

As long as some one, or some thing, is buying tickets, they count against the 15,000 limit.  Even if it’s sponsors through a sponsorship deal, or a distribution to local charities.  Or this:

“I don’t think the rule has had any impact on people’s desirability to stay FBS,” Turner said. “They’ll find ways to do it. Oftentimes, it’s through things like having your media rights partner buy the tickets from you and they reduce their fee by the amount of money. That’s crazy. There’s no reason to do that, in my opinion. It’s just fiddling around with the books. It’s arbitrary. It has limited value.”

And yet, it still happens, because schools that don’t stay in compliance are supposed to be penalized by being relocated to FCS.  And because the NCAA turns a willful blind eye to it — largely, I suspect, to maintain a decently sized pool of cupcakes for P5 schools to schedule.

The SEC is losing the Johnson measuring contest. Again.

Hey, no worries.  I’m sure there isn’t a single SEC school president irritated by this.

The revenue gap between the Big Ten and SEC is widening at "an alarming rate," @SmittySBJ reports in SBJ College. "The SEC trailed the Big Ten in 2018 revenue reports — $759 million to $660 million."🔒https://t.co/gX8YfuPQq7🔒

— John Ourand (@Ourand_SBJ) July 10, 2019

Remember the last time that happened?  It’s how Georgia wound up not facing a conference football opponent at their place until 2024.

They like ’em. They really, really like ’em.

Seeing as Groo mentioned Stassen’s preseason magazine consensus in his post I just linked to, I thought I’d share that with you guys.

None of the four appear to be sleeping on the Dawgs.  It’s also interesting to see that the mags value the strength of the SEC less than do FPI and S&P+.  There are six conference teams in that top 25 and only two of those are from the SEC East.

Speaking of the East, here’s how that shakes out:

It’s the Year of the Vols, peeps!  Seriously, look at the consistency there.  Outside of Lindy’s, every magazine shows the same general pecking order, and even in the case of Lindy’s it’s just a matter of flopping the fifth and sixth place programs.

Obviously, nothing is etched in stone.  Injuries and the any given Saturday factor will no doubt play their parts when the dust settles.  Suffice to say Georgia is facing big expectations.  It’ll be Kirby’s job to make sure they’re met.

How deep is Georgia’s valley

If you’re looking for the opposite of preseason happy talk, may I suggest you read Groo’s post today.

This is a very good point about the next step Fromm needs to take with his game:

This year I’d like to see Fromm put things on his shoulders when things aren’t going so well in the running game. Defenses will challenge him and the passing game by selling out against the run, and it will be up to Fromm to elevate an inexperienced but talented group of receivers. Let’s put it bluntly: Georgia hasn’t managed a point or even a drive longer than 28 yards in the fourth quarter of the past two games against Alabama. Can Fromm and the Georgia offense find a way to close out their biggest games this year?

Teams, as always against Smart’s program, will routinely sell out against the run defending Georgia, but how many of the teams the Dawgs face this season have the talent to force Fromm’s hand?  Alabama, duh, but also, at least if they stay healthy, the Gators.  Auburn’s defensive line is better than Florida’s, but not its secondary.

Not so coincidentally, those are the games that make me the most nervous, at least until Fromm shows he has taken the next step in his game.  (That also assumes the receiving corps develops depth quickly enough to allow Fromm to do so.)

How hot are those seats, anyway?

As you know, this is the first year in a while when the SEC boasts no new head coaches.  For what it’s worth, here’s how Dennis Dodd sees the warmth of the seats under the current bunch.

First, his rating system:

Now, the coaches, by school, in alphabetical order:

• Saban 0
• Morris 2
• Malzahn 3
• Mullen 1
• Smart 0
• Stoops 2
• Orgeron 2
• Moorhead 1
• Odom 2
• Luke 2
• Muschamp 1
• Pruitt 2
• Fisher 1
• Mason 3

The only coach who Dodd sees as being on shakier ground in 2019 than last year is Malzahn.  Even then, he’s only good for a “Pressure is mounting” rating.

All in all, this appears to be a pretty secure bunch, at least in Dodd’s lights.  Your thoughts?

Keep your hands to yourself.

TFW a recruiting violation is so stupid, I can’t even bring myself to snark Jeremy Pruitt about it.

Just another day in Paradise

Apparently this is a thing.

Former Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer and former Florida and South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier will coach in the Polynesian Bowl on Jan. 18, 2020, at Honolulu’s Aloha Stadium, the bowl announced on Wednesday.

Beamer will coach Team Makai (Ocean), and Spurrier will coach Team Mauka (Mountain). The game will be broadcast nationally on CBS Sports Network.

Good luck, Mauka.  Your coach sounds like he’s got one foot on the beach already.

“Hawai’i in January to coach in the Polynesian Bowl is about as good as it gets,” Spurrier said in a statement. “I’m looking forward to being part of this amazing experience.”

All I can think of after seeing that quote is this:

That is the look of a man ready to put the hours in.  Don’t forget to pack the golf clubs, Coach.