A ppd journey through the past

Brian Fremeau has done some very heavy lifting.

Points per drive team history (2007-2018) data is organized in the table below along with the individual season rank for each rating category. Net points scored per drive (NPD) is the difference between points scored per offensive drive (OPD) and points allowed per opponent offensive drive (DPD). Points per drive from long starting field position for the offense (OLD) and opponent offenses (DLD) are calculated on possessions that begin inside the offense’s own 20-yard line. Points per drive from middle starting field position for the offense (OMD) and opponent offenses (DMD) are calculated on possessions that begin from the offense’s own 20-yard line to its own 40-yard line. Points per drive from short starting field position for the offense (OSD) and opponent offenses (DSD) are calculated on possessions that begin less than 60 yards from the end zone.

And here’s what Georgia did over that period of time.

Screenshot_2019-08-05 BCF Toys - Points Per Drive Team History

Boy, are there a few takeaways there, or what?

First of all, as bad as Martinez’ final days were, Grantham’s last season was more than a match for them.  Also, note that while the short-field defense in Pruitt’s first season didn’t improve much, the Dawgs improved dramatically when opponents had to drive the field to score.  (In that regard, Smart still has some catching up to do with his predecessor.)

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, note Bobo’s track record in his last three seasons.  In particular, finishing 20th in points per drive in the injury-plagued 2013 season is damned impressive.  Even so, Chaney’s last season was better by a third of a point per drive than Bobo’s 2014 high water mark.  Can Coley keep things going?

Speaking of high water marks, I find it interesting that Georgia’s best overall finish in net points per drive, fourth, has happened three times in the last seven years and in each of those three seasons, the team has been derailed by Alabama in oh, so close finishes.  That makes sense, given that the Tide finished first, second and first in those same seasons.



Filed under Georgia Football

18 responses to “A ppd journey through the past

  1. mdcgtp

    Spot on, and I would argue that our three experiences against Bama probably “out performed” the statistical differences between the two teams, which is largely reflective of the talent differential between the two teams.

    2019 is going to be about a few themes. The first, in my mind, is “young LB talent (both ILB and OLB) at UGA vs. experienced LB production (but less depth) at Bama. Second is our ability to produce elite secondary play. We need more production from Star and consistent tackling from Richie. that said, our CBs could be the best pair in the country in terms of size, length, toughness and speed. If Campbell’s trial by fire in 2018 gives way to confidence in 2019, teams will have a hard time throwing against us, which should enable our OLBs to make more plays. Obviously, production has to emerge from our WRs, but I have confidence that Jake will help that process along.

    Talking season can’t end soon enough.


  2. Raphael Lewis

    I’d like to see the results Bobo would’ve had if he had been working with the O-line that Chaney had the last two years. Just sayin’…

    Liked by 3 people

    • Texas Dawg

      Not to take anything away from Fromm, but few if any of the quarterbacks at UGA have ever had the quality of big uglies up front protecting them that he has. Fortunately, from the looks of the ongoing recruiting, all the ones following him will.


    • practicaldawg

      Or more specifically, would Gurley have ever been tackled?


      • Will Adams

        No, he would not have ever gotten tackled. I wasn’t around to see Herschel in person so my first glimpse of greatness at RB was Gurley. Don’t get me wrong, we’ve been blessed with a plethora of great backs since Herschel but I don’t think any of them were as talented as Gurley. He was the best player on the field in almost every game he played at UGA, if not every game.


  3. W Cobb Dawg

    I can see a scenario where CMB returns to Athens. If our offense has a big year in ’19, Coley will be one of the hotter HC candidates. And moreso if he stays through ’20 and has another big year. Just look at what a few years at UGA did for Chaney. He was job hopping all over cfb before Kirby resurrected his career.

    And with a 24-27 record I don’t know how much longer CMB can hold out at Colorado State. I would think he’s closing in on the proverbial hot seat. Still in his prime at 45, he’d be a great fit for Kirby’s staff should an offensive position open up.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Tony Barnfart

    My three biggest concerns this fall camp are:
    1. Wide receiver.
    2. Wide receiver.
    3. Wide receiver.


    • Texas Dawg

      On paper this group has the POTENTIAL to be one of the best groups UGA has ever fielded. Unfortunately, potential is often unrealized so until the season gets into full swing, I think we are all on edge about this.


      • Russ

        Well, we all know what it boils down to…blocking.

        I just wonder how Saban and Dabo got their difference-making freshmen receivers to block so well.


      • MGW

        We know all about “potential” and what that means at UGA. HOWEVER, I don’t believe we’ve ever had such a deep pool of talented “potential” at that position here. Most of them were 5* or high 4*. Odds are way better than we’re used to that at least one of those guys turns out to be a stud.

        Couple that talent with the fact that the whole rest of the offense is completely proven and terrifying to other teams, and I’d be surprised if we didn’t have one of those guys vying for 1st team all conference or a couple guys at the 2/3 team level. By that I mean there’s a good chance one’s a total stud, but odds are better than not that the position will at least be reliable.


  5. GruvenDawg

    If we want to win a championship the Defense needs to take a big step forward this year. I think we need to get in top 3 of DPD to win it all against Bama and Clemson. DPD – points allowed per opponent offensive drive

    Alabama National Championship teams DPD
    2009 -5th
    2011 -1st
    2012 -1st
    2015 -1st
    2017 -2nd

    Clemson National Championship teams* DPD
    *2016 -9th
    2017 -1st
    *2018 -1st

    Notable UGA teams DPD
    2011 -6th
    2012 -12th
    2015 -7th
    2016 -31st
    2017 -5th
    2018 -32nd


    • Biggus Rickus

      They effectively beat Alabama in 2017 as far as I’m concerned. That said, the defense needs to improve over last year, and I think it will.