Daily Archives: August 8, 2019

Lookin’ for love in all the right places

Jalen Ramsey, serious baller.  No, make that mega-serious baller.

Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey had the most millennial way of messing with opponents back at Florida State … he’d make WRs think he was trying to bang their GFs.

“Say I was playing a big receiver at whatever school, I would look up his Instagram and slide in his girlfriend’s DMs before the game,” Ramsey said on the Bussin’ with the Boys podcast with Titans lineman Taylor Lewan and NFLer Will Compton.

And, would it work? Hell yeah it did — “People get hot about that.”

He’s lucky he didn’t get the crap beat out of him on the field for pulling that.  But that doesn’t mean I’m not laughing my ass off over it.

(h/t)

8 Comments

Filed under Social Media Is The Devil's Playground

The World’s Largest Moonshine Party?

Damn.  Looks like I’ve got some reservations to cancel.

26 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football

Bud Elliott’s 2019 Blue-Chip Ratio

Bud is part of Vox’ new Banner Society group, which means I got this year’s analysis of talent accumulation via an emailed newsletter instead of by post.  In any event, here’s the list of all the teams that have signed more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-stars over their previous four signing classes, based on the 247Sports Composite:

Entering 2019, 16 teams meet the Blue-Chip Ratio mark.

  • Ohio State 81%
  • Alabama 80%
  • Georgia 79%
  • LSU 64%
  • Florida State 61%
  • Clemson 60%
  • USC 60%
  • Penn State 60%
  • Michigan 60%
  • Texas 60%
  • Oklahoma 60%
  • Auburn 58%
  • Washington 54%
  • Notre Dame 54%
  • Florida 53%
  • Miami 51%

Bud finds no surprises there, and neither do I.

The most interesting part of his analysis — and granted, it’s a small sample size, but still — is the hint of concentration.

The increasing number of teams might not be a trend, but increasing separation between the haves and have-nots? That could be.

In 2014, no team was above 75%. In 2015, only Alabama was. In 2016 and 2017, it was still just Alabama. 2018 saw Ohio State get into that super elite class.

Now 2019 has three of the four highest Blue-Chip Ratios ever (Alabama in 2017 was at 80%). Frequently, a team comes close to the 80% mark, but never have the top three all been anywhere near this high. And Georgia is fractions of a percentage point from cracking the 80% barrier with Alabama and Ohio State.

This is over a four-year period, remember, so for Georgia, next year’s ratio will take into account Smart’s classes after the 2016 transition.  As Bud notes, a high percentage is no guarantee of title success, but you’re not winning a natty without a high percentage.

How well does this list match up with whom Vegas believes will win the national championship?

Extremely well. The top 10 teams in the Vegas odds are all BCR schools.

Among the non-BCR teams, Oregon has the best odds at 33/1, while Nebraska, Texas A&M, and Wisconsin are at 50/1. That makes sense in some ways, since Oregon has a Heisman Trophy candidate QB, Justin Herbert, who will need to play more like his 2017 self. I’ve theorized that the first non-BCR team to win a title will do so due to having a special quarterback, and Oregon was the most recent non-BCR team to come close, thanks to Marcus Mariota.

Nebraska and Wisconsin could rack up wins thanks to easy schedules, but would face real questions about their ability to win three straight games against presumably BCR schools, in the Big Ten Championship and two Playoff games.

But for the most part, non-BCR teams do not make the Playoff.

**********************************************************************

UPDATE:  A graphic graph.

Screenshot_2019-08-08 Bud Elliott on Twitter 👀That Penn State Blue-Chip Ratio trend line Maybe why myself, 38Godfrey ralph[...]

There isn’t another program on that chart that can match Georgia’s climb.

12 Comments

Filed under BCS/Playoffs, Georgia Football, Recruiting

Using ESPN’s FPI team projections to game the 2019 season

Here’s another example in a long list of why I love the Internet things.

I actually thought about making a prediction thread for the 2019 season based on ESPN’s FPI matchups a few days ago, but never found the time was too damned lazy to do the leg work.  Fortunately for me, here’s a message board post from someone who did the heavy lifting.

Win percentage in parentheses.

Alabama: Duke*- W (96.3%) ( played in Atlanta)
NMSU- W (99.7%)
@SCAR- W (82.5%)
So.Miss- W (98.3%)
Ole Miss- W (95.1%)
@TAMU- W (74.3%)
Tennessee- W (88.4%)
Arkansas- W (97.5%)
LSU- W (74.8%)
@ Miss. St-W (77.9%)
West. Carolina-W (99.9%)
@ Auburn-W (73.6%)

(12-0) (8-0 SEC)

Arkansas: Portland State- W(97.9%)
@ Ole Miss- L (26.6%)
Colorado St.- W (82.4%)
San Jose St.- W (87.0%)
TAMU* – L (12.8%) (played in Arlington, TX)
@ Kentucky- L (25.4%)
Auburn- L (14.5%)
@ Alabama-L (2.5%)
Miss. St- L (22.0%)
Western Kentucky- W (77.6%)
@ LSU- L (5.8%)
Missouri- L(25.1%)

(4-8) (0-8 SEC)

Auburn: Oregon*( played at Cowboys Stadium)- W (53.4%)
Tulane- W (95.2%)
Kent. St- W (98.4%)
@ TAMU- L( 42.7%)
Miss. St- W( 66.9%)
@ Florida – L (39.4%)
@ Arkansas- W (88.5%)
@ LSU – L (28.2%)
Ole Miss – W (81.6%)
Georgia – L (45.3%)
Samford – W (98.8%)
Alabama – L (26.4%)

(7-5) (3-5 SEC)

Florida: Miami* ( played in Orlando)- W( 73.4%)
UT-Martin- W (99.5%)
@ Kentucky- W (73.2%)
Tennessee- W (69.0%)
Towson- W (99.1%)
Auburn- W (60.6%)
@ LSU- L(29.7%)
@ SCAR- W (57.7%)
Georgia*( played in JAX)- L(36.8%)
Vanderbilt- W (88.5%)
Missouri- W(56.6%)
Florida St- W (74.1%)

(10-2) (6-2 SEC)

Georgia: @ Vanderbilt- W (87.1%)
Murray St- W (99.8%)
Arkansas St- W (97.7%)
Notre Dame- W (70.3%)
@ Tennessee- W (66.6%)
SCAR- W (79.9%)
Kentucky- W (90.7%)
Florida*- W (63.2%)
Missouri- W (81.2%)
@ Auburn- W (54.7%)
TAMU- W (75.8%)
@ GA Tech- W (94.9%)

(12-0) (8-0 SEC)

Kentucky: Toledo- W (82.0%)
Eastern Michigan – W (92.4%)
Florida- L (26.8%)
@ Miss. St- L (22.2%)
@ SCAR – L (25.5%)
Arkansas – W (74.6%)
@ Georgia – L (9.3%)
Missouri- L (41.3%)
Tennessee- L (38.6%)
@ Vanderbilt- L (49.4%)
UT-Martin- W (98.1%)
Louisville- W (76.8%)

(5-7) (1-7 SEC)

LSU: Georgia Southern- W (96.7%)
@ Texas- W (74.4%)
Northwestern St.- W (99.8%)
@ Vanderbilt- W (84.0%)
Utah St.- W (97.9%)
Florida – W (70.3%)
@ Miss. St – W (65.3%)
Auburn – W (71.8%)
@ Alabama- L (25.2%)
@ Ole Miss- W (82.7%)
Arkansas- W (94.2%)
TAMU- W (73.4%)

(11-1) (7-1 SEC)

Mississippi State: Louisiana* ( played in NOLA)- W ( 94.0%)
Southern Miss- W (91.4%)
Kansas State- W (87.0%)
Kentucky- W (77.8%)
@ Auburn- L (33.1%)
@ Tennessee- L (44.6%)
LSU- L (34.7%)
@ TAMU- L (34.3%)
@ Arkansas- W (78.0%)
Alabama – L (22.1%)
Abilene Christian – W (99.5%)
Ole Miss- W (74.9%)

(7-5) (3-5 SEC)

Missouri: @ Wyoming- W (87.9%)
West Virginia- W (84.8%)
Southeast Missouri St.- W (98.7%)
SCAR- W (59.0%)
Troy- W (94.3%)
Ole Miss- W (74.6%)
@ Vanderbilt- W ( 65.9%)
@ Kentucky – W (58.7%)
@ Georgia- L (18.8%)
Florida- L (43.4%)
Tennessee- L (49.6%)
Arkansas- W (74.9%)

(9-3) (5-3 SEC)

Ole Miss: @ Memphis- W (51.4%)
Arkansas- W (73.4%) Southeastern Louisiana- W (98.7%)
California- W (73.0%)
@ Alabama- L (4.9%)
Vanderbilt- W (64.5%)
@ Missouri- L ( 25.4%)
Texas A&M – L (29.6%)
@ Auburn – L (18.4%)
New Mexico St – W ( 96.0%)
LSU – L ( 17.3%)
Miss. State – L (25.1%)

(6-6) (2-6 SEC)

South Carolina:

North Carolina* ( played in Charlotte)- W (77.1%)

Charleston Southern- W (99.3%)

Alabama- L (17.5%)
@ Missouri- L ( 41.0%)
Kentucky- W (74.5%)
@ Georgia- L (20.1%)
Florida – L (42.3%)
@ Tennessee- L (37.0%)
Vanderbilt- W (77.2%)
Appalachian State- W (85.8%)
@ Texas A&M- L (26.2%)
Clemson- L (14.9%)

(5-7) (2-6 SEC)

Tennessee: Georgia State- W (97.0%)
BYU- W (81.4%)
Chattanooga – W (99.0%)
@ Florida – L (31.0%)
Georgia – L (33.4%)
Miss. St- W (55.4%)
@ Alabama- L (11.6%)
South Carolina- W (63.0%)
UAB- W (94.6%)
@ Kentucky- W (61.4%)
@ Missouri- W (50.4%)
Vanderbilt- W (82.5%)

(9-3) (5-3 SEC)

Texas A&M- Texas State- W (97.6%)
@ Clemson- L (12.0%)
Lamar- W (99.6%)
Auburn- W (57.3%)
Arkansas*- W (87.2%)
Alabama – L (25.7%)
@ Ole Miss- W (70.4%)
Miss. St – W (65.7%)
UTSA- W (98.0%)
South Carolina- W (73.8%)
@ Georgia- L (24.2%)
@ LSU- L (26.6%)

(8-4) (5-3 SEC)
Vanderbilt: Georgia- L (12.9%)
@ Purdue- W (51.5%)
LSU- L (16.0%)
Northern Illinois- W (83.8%)
@ Ole Miss-L (35.5%)
UNLV-W (89.0%)
Missouri-L (34.1%)
@ SCAR-L (22.8%)
@ Florida-L (11.5%)
Kentucky-W (50.6%)
East Tennessee St-W (99.1%)
@ Tennessee-L (17.5%)

(5-7) (1-7 SEC)

If you want the tl;dr version, here you go.

SEC WEST

  1. Alabama (12-0) (8-0 SEC)
  2. LSU (11-1) (7-1 SEC)
  3. Texas A&M (8-4) (5-3 SEC)
  4. Auburn (7-5) (3-5 SEC)
  5. Mississippi State (7-5) (3-5 SEC)
  6. Ole Miss (6-6) (2-6 SEC)
  7. Arkansas (4-8) (0-8 SEC)

SEC EAST

  1. Georgia (12-0) (8-0 SEC)
  2. Florida (10-2) (6-2 SEC)
  3. Missouri (9-3) (5-3 SEC)
  4. Tennessee (9-3) (5-3 SEC)
  5. South Carolina (5-7) (2-6 SEC)
  6. Kentucky (5-7) (1-7 SEC)
  7. Vanderbilt (5-7) (1-7 SEC)

My first thought is what a bummer for LSU.  My second thought is if that actually came to pass, they’d be erecting statues of Jeremy Pruitt in Knoxville.  (Although Fulmer would be claiming credit.)  I’m sure everyone in Auburn would be totally understanding about paying a coach $7 million a year to compile a losing conference record.  And if Matt Luke coaches that team to bowl eligibility, he ought to get strong consideration for SEC COTY.

And your thoughts?

28 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

Danny White cannot fail. He can only be failed.

bigcupofshutthefuckup

Gawd, I wish he would ($$).

Now UCF has gone 25-1 the past two years, and no one wants to schedule the Knights in a neutral site game or a home-and-home. White wants to schedule two Power 5 teams a year in the non-conference, and he has those slots filled for this season, next season and 2022. But he has struggled to find takers for future years.

“We have a really hard time scheduling because we’ve gotten pretty good,” White says. “The teams that have played us in home-and-homes in the past are now more hesitant to do that, and I get that. If we try to have a conversation six, seven, eight years down the road when there are a lot of other options, the conversation is going to end pretty quickly. We’re not going to get anybody to agree to play us when there are other options.”

White doesn’t blame Power 5 schools for not engaging UCF about home-and-home series. “I understand why large-budget, huge fan base football programs don’t do a lot of home-and-homes,” he says. “I wouldn’t, either, if I was in their shoes. They’re making too much money off home games.”

White says he won’t short season-ticket holders — UCF has less than 100 season tickets remaining for 2019 — by playing payday games at Power 5 schools who won’t make the return trip to Orlando. He intends to schedule seven home games a year. Does that mean the Knights won’t have a chance to make the Playoff? Absolutely. But White believes that no matter who UCF schedules in the non-conference, the Knights won’t have a chance to make the Playoff. Going through the past two seasons undefeated and being given zero consideration for the Playoff has crystallized White’s mindset as it relates to scheduling: Don’t schedule to try to get invited to a party that you’ll never be invited to anyway. 

Nothing like preemptively nuking any effort to ramp up your program’s scheduling. What happened to the days when Bobby Bowden would schedule any and all comers anywhere to get respect for his program?  Hell, White’s whining makes Boise State’s efforts just a few years ago look quaint.

If there’s any justice in life, one day Gus Malzahn is going to have to answer for not having his team prepared to play Central Florida.

20 Comments

Filed under It's Not Easy Being A Mid-Major

Nothing but the best

If the SEC ever decides to ditch its current “It Just Means More” marketing slogan, may I suggest Seth Emerson’s ($$) one-liner“Tradition takes a backseat to convenience”.  What it lacks emotionally it more than makes up for in accuracy.

13 Comments

Filed under SEC Football

Dabo ain’t salty no more.

TFW you have played ‘Bama — and won.

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UPDATE:  More shade.

The funny thing is, stuff like that is only going to endear Dabo to the Tide faithful when Saban does retire and ‘Bama goes shopping for a replacement.

20 Comments

Filed under ACC Football, Alabama, Clemson: Auburn With A Lake, SEC Football