2019 Projected FEI Ratings

Brian Fremeau has tweaked his formula in hopes of making it more predictive.  He feels like he’s accomplished that.

Applied over the last three seasons, this preseason projection methodology resulted in successfully forecasting the winner of 69.2 percent of all regular season games. More importantly, and since new possession data will be recorded and will better inform the projection model throughout the year, the preseason Projected FEI ratings have a 76.8 percent win percentage for Weeks 0-2 when no such in-season data is available. (Betting lines successfully projected the winner of only 75.3 percent of games in Weeks 0-2 over the same span). For those early week projections, the mean error (average difference between projected margin and actual margin) was 11.6 points per game, a projection improvement of more than 1.5 points per game over the old FEI system.

Projected FEI ratings (PFEI) represent the per-possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field over an average opponent. Projected losses (PL) represents the average number of losses expected based on the team’s PFEI rating and that of its opponents produced from individual game win likelihoods. Projected OFEI Offense ratings (POFEI) and Projected DFEI Defense ratings (PDFEI) represent per-possession advantages for each unit.

And here’s his top 15.

Screenshot_2019-08-23 FEI 2019 New and Improved Football Outsiders

The usual suspects appear in the top six spots, but from there it gets interesting, with Mississippi State and Auburn next.  Florida is outside the top ten and Brian projects the Gators finishing with four losses.

As far as other SEC teams go, he’s got Missouri at 19 (four losses), TAMU at 22 (5.9 lossses), Tennessee at 34 (5.8 losses), South Carolina at 39 (6.9 losses), Ole Miss at 52 (6.5 losses), Kentucky at 60 (6.1 losses), Vanderbilt at 80 (seven losses) and Arkansas at 82 (7.1 losses).  By the way, the last two come in ranked lower than Georgia Tech.

14 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

14 responses to “2019 Projected FEI Ratings

  1. 81Dog

    I wonder if Florida is this year’s version of 2018 South Carolina? Overrated returning QB, decent but overrated coach with a bad lifetime record v UGA, nice finish the previous year against a deceptively easy group of teams, and a fan base that clutches at straws. To be fair, while the Gator fans are all mouthy, they have nothing quite as hope inducing as SANDSTORM!

    Me, I’m hoping for a meltdown by October 1 in Gainesville. They’re starting to get the idea that they’re basically us in the early 90s.

    Like

    • Uglydawg

      Florida has depth problems, but I’m afraid we’re selling them a little short. IF they can stay healthy they will be a tough out. I also think Franks is better than many think. I take no joy in saying that Florida, while not as good as UGA, could give the Dawgs problems if things go their way.
      Before everyone cusses me out…I know the Dawgs are the better team and should win. I just think we need to realize the gators aren’t chopped liver.
      (my inner Munson is strong this morning)

      Liked by 1 person

      • 81Dog

        It’s all guesswork at this point, and you might be right. Mullen is a good coach, Franks does have some ability, Florida has a good D. For me, though, right now, the first two are not top tier quality. Not to be overlooked, but not to be feared. Our A game beats their A game. We saw in the Sugar what happens when a decent team playing hard can do to our talented team mailing it in. We aren’t good enough to overlook anyone, but I’m hopeful today that won’t be an issue for UGA this year.

        Plus, I hate Florida and am totally willing to believe they’re overrated. Long as Kirby takes them seriously, I can amuse myself. 😏

        Like

      • Macallanlover

        You have been pounding that message for a while now. I Know we have fans who want FU to fall to something like 3-9 based on emotion alone, but most people see 9, 8, or 7 wins for them. That seems pretty fair on for a team with trench issues on both sides of the ball.

        They look outgunned by 2 teams on their schedule for sure, probably three, and have only a slight edge to 3-4 more. with their depth issues, some of those closer matchups might easily be losses as the season goes by. Stop feeling guilty about us having a clear edge, Mullet mouth has made sure we will show up. Their are bigger games to fear on our schedule. They go 8-4, imo, but their ceiling looks to be 9, so more downside than upside s I see it.

        Liked by 1 person

        • JCDawg83

          I have to wonder how restless the turd natives might get if a few injuries and bad bounces go against UF and they finish 7-5? Lots of big talk coming out of the turd fan base all year. They may not be in a very forgiving mood if they have a disappointing season.

          Like

      • dawgtired

        UF kept our game close until the 4thQtr in 2018, then it got wonderfully ugly. I do not want them close at any time this November 2. Their starters are formidable but not better than ours and their depth is not close. I would love for us to hit them in the mouth early, never take our foot off the gas and never look back. We need to embarrass the whole gator nation.

        Like

      • Argondawg

        They have very serious depth problems that they have not been able to effectively alleviate with recruiting. They have a roster that sits at 74 or 75 scholarship Players and with the injuries they have sustained in the lead up to the season they are working with something on the order of about 69 or 70 players that can go. Their first string is talented but their is a HUGE drop off on experience and quality after that. Maybe they turn it around. Of all the teams in the top 15 they have in my estimation the smallest room for injuries. The DT that they lost for the year this week will be a problem. They lose anyone on the OL or in the secondary and their season will get real intersting real quick. that being said they are still Florida but they aren’t gonna sneak up on anyone and somebody else has the horshoe right now because there arent many major P5 programs that have us much off season bullshit going as FU.

        Like

  2. Dave

    Is Clemson’s high defensive rank a reflection of playing in the ACC? I am told by the inertwebsters that their D will regress this year.

    Like

  3. Got Cowdog

    No Texas?

    Like

    • No. 50 Texas Longhorns

      Texas racked up a couple of impressive victories in 2018 (they went 1-1 against Oklahoma and beat Georgia) and has earned attention as a potential playoff contender as a result. Among other accolades, the Associated Press writers voted the Longhorns No. 10 in their preseason poll. So what is FEI seeing that is dragging them all the way down to No. 50? Their projection input data simply isn’t very impressive, and that’s all this system has to work with. Texas ranked No. 28 in last season’s final FEI ratings, coupling those great wins with a number of very pedestrian results against weak opponents. They also have very little production returning this fall in comparison to other possible contending programs. Even if FEI is blind to Texas’ 2019 upside potential, it would take a major leap in efficiency on both sides of the ball to comfortably forecast the Longhorns winning double-digit regular season games.

      It’s pretty consistent across the board that the Longhorns don’t show well in advanced stats.

      Like

  4. I don’t think there is as much difference in our Offense and Alabama’s. The defense is about right….unfortunately.

    Like

  5. whb209

    Guys, we have 7 games before Florida. Maybe we should look at some of them. Let’s start with Vandy. Then we might want to look at ND.
    I know this is the Senator’s Blog and I will read it no matter what he wants to talk about. It just scares me to get too far ahead of our self’s

    Like