Brian Fremeau has tweaked his formula in hopes of making it more predictive. He feels like he’s accomplished that.
Applied over the last three seasons, this preseason projection methodology resulted in successfully forecasting the winner of 69.2 percent of all regular season games. More importantly, and since new possession data will be recorded and will better inform the projection model throughout the year, the preseason Projected FEI ratings have a 76.8 percent win percentage for Weeks 0-2 when no such in-season data is available. (Betting lines successfully projected the winner of only 75.3 percent of games in Weeks 0-2 over the same span). For those early week projections, the mean error (average difference between projected margin and actual margin) was 11.6 points per game, a projection improvement of more than 1.5 points per game over the old FEI system.
Projected FEI ratings (PFEI) represent the per-possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field over an average opponent. Projected losses (PL) represents the average number of losses expected based on the team’s PFEI rating and that of its opponents produced from individual game win likelihoods. Projected OFEI Offense ratings (POFEI) and Projected DFEI Defense ratings (PDFEI) represent per-possession advantages for each unit.
And here’s his top 15.
The usual suspects appear in the top six spots, but from there it gets interesting, with Mississippi State and Auburn next. Florida is outside the top ten and Brian projects the Gators finishing with four losses.
As far as other SEC teams go, he’s got Missouri at 19 (four losses), TAMU at 22 (5.9 lossses), Tennessee at 34 (5.8 losses), South Carolina at 39 (6.9 losses), Ole Miss at 52 (6.5 losses), Kentucky at 60 (6.1 losses), Vanderbilt at 80 (seven losses) and Arkansas at 82 (7.1 losses). By the way, the last two come in ranked lower than Georgia Tech.