Not your regular SEC preseason predictions, 2019 edition

Well, it’s that time of year again (technically, earlier than usual because of Week 0) when I show my ass to all and attempt to foresee what’s coming down the turnpike from the fourteen members of the Southeastern Conference.

Once more, I offer my general explanation about the format to this post, although I know there will be, as usual, at least two readers who don’t bother to look at it:

The format for my picks, in case you haven’t tuned into this broadcast before, hasn’t changed.

Rather than give you my predicted records, I’ll list the schools in the order they finished in the conference last year, look at areas of potential improvement and decline and assess in what direction I expect each to go by comparison to 2010.

In other words, pure seat of the pants BS.

Based on that, the teams are listed in the order of their 2018 conference order of finish.  Remember that, before you start freaking out over where a school shows up in this post.

And with that, here we go.


ALABAMA (14-1, 8-0)

  • Pros:  Depth, depth and more depth; Nick Saban and The Process; quarterback; wide receiver; defensive back seven; weak non-conference schedule; ridiculous advanced stats
  • Cons:  Replacement of both coordinators (maybe) and Quinnen Williams (definitely)
  • Outlook:  The most lather, rinse, repeat program in college football.  As I said in last year’s preview, if Alabama isn’t in the national title hunt when the Tide plays in the SECCG, it’ll be a complete shock.  A regular season loss would be a mild upset.

LSU (10-3, 5-3)

  • Pros:  Defense; overall talent level
  • Cons:  Schedule; running backs; offensive line; receivers
  • Outlook:  There’s an awful lot riding on the supposed change in offensive philosophy this season.  Color me unconvinced.  LSU is too talented to have a mediocre season, but the schedule and Orgeron have me thinking the Tigers are on their way to nine regular season wins in ‘nineteen.

TEXAS A&M (9-4, 5-3)

  • Pros:  Second year coach effect; linebacker; special teams
  • Cons:  Running back; pass defense; brutal schedule
  • Outlook:  Yeah, I think Jimbo can coach when he’s motivated.  But between that schedule, the wholesale losses on the defensive front and Trayveon Williams’ departure, the won-loss record will take a step back in 2019.  Seven wins is pushing it a little, but I think TAMU gets there.


  • Pros:  Second year coach effect; running back; defensive line; positive advanced stats
  • Cons:  Losses on defense; depth
  • Outlook:  Mullen left Moorhead a stacked roster and that showed on defense.  But Fitzgerald was a poor fit for what Moorhead wanted to do offensively, and that showed, too.  This year’s roster looks more pedestrian, but presumably Moorhead will get more out of his offense.  The schedule is certainly manageable, so I can see an eight-win season coming.

AUBURN (8-5, 3-5)

  • Pros:  Lowered expectations; special teams; defensive line; running backs
  • Cons:  Schedule; quarterback
  • Outlook:  It’s one of those patented Auburn years — you know, when nobody’s expecting great things from the Tigers, so they outperform expectations.  That being said, for all their obvious strengths (and that defense is gonna be a real good one), they play six preseason top twelve teams and Gus is counting on a true freshman quarterback to run his offense.  I’ll say nine wins, maybe even ten if Gus finds his lucky rabbit’s foot again.

OLE MISS (5-7, 1-7)

  • Pros:  Off NCAA probation; Scottie Phillips
  • Cons:  Deteriorating team depth; new coordinators; special teams; offensive line; departing receiver talent
  • Outlook:  Hard to see this season being anything other than a long, hard slog.  The roster has been significantly weakened by sanctions and Ole Miss is making a radical change in scheme on offense.  The schedule isn’t awful, but I have a tough time coming up with more than four wins.

ARKANSAS (2-10, 0-8)

  • Pros:  Schedule; second year coach effect
  • Cons:  Overall roster may be the SEC’s worst
  • Outlook:  This is year two of a massive rebuild project.  I think the Hogs will win three games this season, but only because the schedule is so soft.


GEORGIA (11-3, 7-1)

  • Pros:  Offensive line; Jake Fromm; running back; defensive back seven; best talent base in the division by far
  • Cons:  Wide receiver; quarterback depth; pressure of high expectations; schedule
  • Outlook:  There’s a high ceiling on Georgia’s season because of the talent level.  The big question is whether Smart has the program ready to take the next big step, which is beating Alabama.  In the meantime, history and a formidable schedule suggest one regular season loss for the Dawgs.

KENTUCKY (10-3, 5-3)

  • Pros:  Coaching stability; schedule; Lynn Bowden
  • Cons:  Losses of Snell and Allen; defensive line; special teams
  • Outlook:  Stoops is a good coach, period, but no program like Kentucky survives the loss of its two best players unscathed.  Still, that schedule will somewhat ameliorate the drop.  Call it an eight-win regular season for the ‘Cats.

FLORIDA (10-3, 5-3)

  • Pros:  Second year coach effect; secondary; wide receivers; special teams; starting 22 experience
  • Cons:  Depth at offensive line and cornerback; rocky offseason; regression to the mean on turnover margin
  • Outlook:  Mullen, to his credit, stabilized the program last season.  Like it or not, he’s a solid coach.  2019 looks like it’ll be dependent on team health in two key areas.  The ceiling appears to be a ten-win regular season; the floor, if injury luck and turnover margin go south, bowl eligibility.  I’ll sort of split the baby and say nine wins, for now.

MISSOURI (8-5, 4-4)

  • Pros:  Coaching stability; offensive line; receivers; running back; schedule
  • Cons:  Looming NCAA sanctions; overall depth; special teams
  • Outlook:  Odom is another good coach who deserves more credit than he gets.  The schedule is favorable, to say the least, and I could see Mizzou rolling into Athens with a 7-1 record.  Plus, there’s more talent on this team than you might think.  That being said, you never know how a team reacts to postseason ineligibility.  Right now, I feel comfortable with a nine-win prediction.


  • Pros:  Coaching stability; rising talent level; wide receiver; experience at quarterback; linebacker
  • Cons:  Running back; schedule
  • Outlook:  Muschamp has repaired the dumpster fire of a roster Spurrier left him with.  On offense, the big fix has to be getting Bentley to turn the ball over less; you’d have to think with his experience, that’s not an insurmountable task.  As you might expect with a Muschamp-coached team, the ‘Cocks have some good pieces on defense.  Man, oh, man, that schedule, though.  It’ll be a yeoman’s task to win eight games.  I’m thinking seven wins, and that would be a good year for SC.

VANDERBILT (5-7, 1-7)

  • Pros:  Coaching stability; schedule; receivers; Ke’Shawn Vaughn
  • Cons:  Secondary; defensive line; special teams; Shurmur’s departure; lowest talent level in the division
  • Outlook:  Vaughn is the most under the radar player in the conference.  Vandy has some nice pieces at wide receiver and tight end, but who’s going to step up at quarterback?  Overall, it looks like another typical Vanderbilt season coming up — five wins, maybe six if the ‘Dores can extend the winning streak against the Vols.

TENNESSEE (5-7, 2-6)

  • Pros:  Offensive skill position players; secondary; second year coach effect
  • Cons:  Offensive line; defensive line
  • Outlook:    UT will improve its won-loss record again, but when you’re in a conference where everything starts with line play, and your lines are the weakest part of your team, there’s only so far you can go.  The Vols will go bowling, but that’s about all.

There you go.  Come at me, if you dare (which you probably do).


Filed under SEC Football

42 responses to “Not your regular SEC preseason predictions, 2019 edition

  1. Mark

    I notice that replacing both coordinators is a con for Alabama, but not UGA. How come? Do you perhaps consider promoting from within less disruptive than bringing in someone from elsewhere?


    • Partly. But I also think Golding may well turn out to be an improvement.

      Mainly, it’s just a matter of what’s relative. It’s hard to pick any real holes in ‘Bama’s game this year.


  2. MDDawg

    Senator, what’s your prediction for the Miami-UF game tomorrow night?


  3. 3rdandGrantham

    Can’t believe you have us losing 3 games and UF winning 10. Geez SB.

    Just had to get that out there before that inevitable post or 10 shows up questioning your record predictions for each team.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. 3rdandGrantham

    So I’m hoping to keep the streak going this year, as two years ago I predicted a 12 win season and a CFB playoff appearance. And last year I said we would take a step back, miss the playoffs, and lose 3 games.

    This year I’m predicting a 14-1 record and a championship for the Dawgs. I’m just not sure if the loss occurs during the season or to Bama in the SECC, followed by revenge in the playoffs on the way to the title. Oh, btw, UGA will beat Clemson for the title in a classic of a game.

    Liked by 4 people

  5. 81Dog

    Thank you for inviting us to your Ted talk. But this is a long way from showing your ass. Keep trying though, it’s good to have goals! My Ted talk on that topic is later. 😂😂😂😂😂


  6. Dawg in Austin

    I think LSU’s 5-stars at RB and WR are a pro and not a con, and I see them winning 10, but otherwise this seems right to me. Worried about the Barn this year, that defense is going to be lights out.


    • Macallanlover

      AU could be pretty decent if they don’t hit early bumps. It could all come unraveled if they start badly in September and lose the fan base. We can hope. But like you, I think The Barn could represent the biggest threat of the year for UGA. We should win but it would be more comfortable if they have pulled the plug by mid November.

      Liked by 1 person

  7. Bulldog Joe

    Great summary as always.

    Until proven otherwise, I also see new coordinators and the defensive line as cons for Georgia, although the philosophy doesn’t change like LSU. If Georgia beats A&M or Auburn they still win the division, but that’s due to the overall quality of the remainder of the teams. There are several good, but not great teams in the east.

    Also I see the QB and receivers as big ‘pros’ for Texas A&M. If they can win the shootouts they have a chance to break through. LSU and Auburn can also break through, but it will be on the strength of their defense and special teams. A&M’s early game against Clemson will give them confidence, win or lose. Jimbo knows Clemson very well. The west will be very competitive this year as Alabama plays at A&M, Mississippi State, and Auburn.


  8. ZeroPOINTzero

    I’m a firm believer that no team is as good, or bad, as the collective masses think. Last year I finally broke that belief and crowned Alabama the greatest team of all time. Then the SEC and NC games happened. I think that Clemson has been collectively crowned the greatest team eva after one really good win over an overconfident and out coached Alabama. They are a really good team, but not the dreadnought that they’re being made out to be. Same with Tua. Same with Lawrence. Film and a target on their backs will bring them back to earth.



    I truly believe we’re better than 11-3. I say 12-0 regular season. Championship game toss up. (SEC)


  10. W Cobb Dawg

    I think MSU drops down to something like 6 wins. I like Shoop at DC, but I’m not sold on Moorhead. Breaking in a new/transfer QB too.

    The battle for 2nd place in the sec east is wide open. Only team I would consider out of it is Vandy. But they can, and probably will, be a spoiler.


  11. Mayor

    Ask me after Saturday but right now I think FU is more like 6-7 wins than 9.


  12. Cojones

    Events change so much that change predictions so as to make it risky for season guesses. You can never tell about injuries, like the one to Jamaree Salyer that is probably keeping him off the bus to Vandy. Lower body – what the hell is that?


  13. Edwin Allen

    Tennessee improving its record from last year? You have them at 5-7. They went 5-7 last year dips#$t. Do more research next time.