When they tell you it’s about the Jimmies and Joes…

For example, here's how overall SP+ rating compared to average 4-yr recruit rating for the 2018 season. pic.twitter.com/glzDbmBnZU

— CollegeFootballData.com (@CFB_Data) August 28, 2019

… it’s about the frickin’ Jimmies and Joes.

Today, in Dawgrading

So, if Georgia does manage to break through this season and claim a natty, how much do you think we’ll hear about the Dawgs only pulling it off because Alabama got wiped out by injuries at inside linebacker?

Don’t stop believin’.

Apparently, Dawgnation is putting its money where its mouth is.

The college football regular season is believed to be a formality, a four-month race that will inevitably end with Alabama and Clemson meeting again for the national championship.

Bettors, however, disagree. They’re invested heavily in Georgia being very much in the mix come January.

A survey of eight U.S. sportsbooks from around the nation showed that the Bulldogs have attracted just as much money from bettors as Alabama or Clemson to win the national championship — and, at some books, more.

More money has been bet on Georgia to win the national title than has been wagered on any other team at Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings. There are more bets placed on the Bulldogs to win it all than any team at William Hill’s over 100 sportsbooks in Nevada, New Jersey, Iowa and West Virginia.

Hope that ends well for all concerned.

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Your 8.28.19 Playpen

What did you do in The Great Chicken Sandwich War of 2019, daddy?

So, who’s the SEC’s third-best quarterback?

Matt Hinton makes the case for… well, actually, nobody.

Honestly, it’s a crap shoot.

Burrow is probably the safest pick, given that he’s surrounded by the best team, but statistically speaking, he’s nothing to write home about.  (His 2018 stats are a decline from his predecessor’s.)  Mond looks to me to have the highest upside of the bunch (and a good quarterbacks coach in Fisher), but he’ll be working with a revamped offense that will have a shaky running game, so who knows how that will go?

I could go on — Bentley has been erratic and turnover-prone.  Guarantano gets a decent coach, but has to play behind a very questionable offensive line.  We’ve already seen Franks work his magic.

Who you got?

RUTS? In Athens?

Mike Griffith parses a comment of Kirby’s to see an offensive future unlike any other Georgia offense we’ve seen.

But when Smart said he wants his offense “to be explosive, we want to score points,” the interpretation here was that Georgia may not take its foot off the gas as it often did last season.

“I think in college football nowadays you’ve gotta be able to score points,” Smart said. “You look at the best teams in the country they can do that. So we’ve got to be able to score points.”

Last season, Georgia finished fourteenth overall in scoring, at 37.9 points per game.  The only season to surpass that was 2014, Bobo’s last, when Georgia scored 41.3 ppg, good enough for eighth.  Piling on points has never been part of the Georgia Way, so to speak.

Now, like most of you, I happen to think it’s generally better for Georgia to keep the pedal to the metal longer than its offensive coordinators/head coaches have, but that and five bucks will get me a small latte at Starbucks.  There’s a legitimate strategic point to that this season, at least early, since Georgia’s offense is generally considered to be a stronger unit than the defense.

Is it reasonable to expect the second string offense to pour it on?  Historically, the role of the second string offense has been to run out the string.  If Griffith is right, does that mean Smart leaves Fromm in a little longer than has been the case?  Or is Stetson Bennett about to be unleashed?

Thoughts?

The “SEC Grind” is alive and well.

Bill Connelly just published his updated SP+ (the ampersand is no more, alas) rankings, and the real story isn’t who’s at the top, but the SEC’s strength of schedule.  Check this out:

Holy Mother of Crap.  Those are national rankings.  They’re real and they’re spectacular.

To put those in perspective, Missouri’s last place ranking in the SEC translates into a first place ranking in the Big Ten, the Big 12, the Pac-12 and third place in the ACC.

Tough neighborhood.

Great, but not great enough?

If you want to read a stat-laden piece about Georgia’s last two seasons, then, buddy, this FiveThirtyEight story is right up your alley.

There’s lots of interesting data to digest, but this in particular caught my eye:

Georgia does lose five starters apiece on offense and defense from last season, including cornerback Deandre Baker, who won 2018’s Jim Thorpe Award as the country’s top defensive back, and receivers Mecole Hardman and Riley Ridley. But Fromm’s return negates one of the biggest factors in an offense’s demise: losing the starting quarterback.

According to data collected from the 2001 through 2017 seasons, a previously average offense that loses five starters including the QB would expect to be about 12 percent less efficient than before. However, if the team retains its signal-caller, it can basically expect to carry on without missing a beat — great news for an offense as strong as UGA’s last season. The same can be said for a defense that loses five starters between seasons; our research says that team can also expect no real drop-off in efficiency between seasons, generally speaking.

The tl;dr version of that:  Georgia is reloading, not rebuilding.  Hubba hubba.

Now, the Dawgs just need to go out and beat ‘Bama, which, unfortunately is doing the same, but at a higher level.

(h/t)

No freaking fear

Tech talk.

“We’re not going to be afraid to go out and play anybody anywhere,” offensive coordinator Dave Patenaude said. “We’ll just put the ball down and play whoever we get a chance to play. That’s kind of our mentality.”

“So the big message for us in our defensive meeting room is, know them, and we literally put up a slide (Sunday in a meeting): Know them,” Thacker said. “But more important, know us and then, no freaking fear. I don’t think our kids are going to fear anything, I really don’t.”

Reality.

Carpenter didn’t cite his sources, but according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, that’s actually generous. That metric accords the Jackets a 1.2 percent chance of emerging from Death Valley with victory.

As of Sunday, it was the lowest win probability for any power-five team against another power-five team for the entire season, according to ESPN. It’s a tick lower than two other Tigers opponents visiting Death Valley – Boston College (1.8%) and Wake Forest (2.2%).

 

Wednesday morning buffet

Soon, grasshoppers, soon.

• “After going 6-1 ATS as a home underdog in 2015-16, Vandy has limped to a 1-5 spread record as a home ‘dog the last two seasons.”
• This is a potentially interesting development to keep an eye on.
• ‘Bout damned time.
• Mark Schlabach predicts Georgia loses to Texas A&M in the regular season, and then turns around and beats ‘Bama in the SECCG.  I’d take that.
• That sound you hear is bookies groaning after hearing this news.
• Boy, did Dan Enos throw Jarren Williams under the bus after Miami’s loss to Florida.
• Penn State is back in court.
• Vanderbilt is the only Southeastern Conference program yet to reveal a starting quarterback for its opening game.
• Mississippi State to Vandy:  hold my beer.
• In case you didn’t know, you can bet first half lines and team totals.  Here are some for the Georgia and Georgia Tech games.