Unleash the hound

Good stuff at DawgStats:

Through 4 games, UGA has passed on 1st down 50 times (88 all of last season) with an 82% completion rate. (Burrow leads SEC at 83%)  Fromm is on target on 92% of 1stdown passes!   UGA still in bottom half of attempts on 1st down, but 2nd in YPA and the only team not to allow a sack on 1st Down.

In addition to passing more on 1st Down, UGA has a higher success rate on 1st down passes than 1st down runs.

1st Down Success measured where play gains 50% yards to go. Dawgs have a success rate of 57% on first down rushes – which is pretty damn good. But on the 50 passes on 1st downs, UGA has a success rate of 72%!!!

Screenshot_2019-09-27 Free Jake Fromm — DawgStats

If you’re looking for areas where Coley has varied from Chaney, first down passing is one such place.  Per cfbstats.com, here’s what Fromm has done passing on first down so far this season:  31-38 (81.6%), 420 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 191.80 passer rating.  Last season, those numbers for him looked like this:  78-119 (67.3%), 1049 yds, 9 TDs, 2 INTs, 161.20 passer rating.

Overall, Georgia is throwing the ball on 38.5% of its first down opportunities through its first four games of 2019, compared with 32.8% last season.  So, Coley has made an effort for Fromm to throw more early, perhaps to take some pressure off from opponents loading the box to stop the run, and been rewarded with a next level effort from Fromm.

If you’re wondering why Coley isn’t even more committed to the pass in that situation, consider that Georgia is rushing for 7.34 yards per carry on first down this season.  When your average rush is setting you up for second and two or three, it’s kind of hard to brush that aside.

But, yeah, when the average yards per pass attempt on first down is over eleven, I’d probably throw the ball more there, if I had my druthers.  Either way, it’s a good problem for Coley to have.

12 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

12 responses to “Unleash the hound

  1. Not a big fan of watching/following other college football teams stats…lsu (team wise) seems to be onto something this year, so far

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  2. GruvenDawg

    Interesting Tennessee is throwing more on first down than us this year, granted they have been playing from behind more than us. I am starting to wonder how much of the percentage of throws on first down is more about the QB’s read than the OC calling run. Jakes job is to get us into the right play. Perhaps he is just sticking with the run tag more.

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    • GruvenDawg

      I meant he sticks with the run tag more than the passing option, even though his pass numbers are up. Might not be Kirby or OC calling run on first 60-70% of the time, just the QB taking that option.

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  3. Cojones

    Oh, Lord! What to do? Throw with a 82% chance for 11yds on first down or run with a chance to gain 7.34yds in a more safe manner?

    Sling it until they give up, then run it. That certainly would be a surprise attack given how good our RBs are and the practice expectations teams are gearing up for after seeing ND’s success. After years of placing our optimism on the great RBs that we have gotten used to, we have a legitimate mode to switch to on Offense. And success in that mode will make our RBs even more successful.

    Fromme will know which one to choose every time he doesn’t look to the sideline. So will the RBs when they block for his passes while building a fortress to run from. In Fromme we trust – Sic’em!

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    • Tony Barnfart

      I feel like we should steal that slow developing tight end slip/ shallow drag that Notre Dame used so effectively.

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    • Tony Barnfart

      It is slightly amusing that Notre Dame’s early use of the tight end is what Georgia summertime message boards have basically been wishfully jerking off to for..years.

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  4. doofusdawg

    I don’t think you could find a better stat that correlates with taking our foot off the gas than switching from throwing on first down to running on first down. Would love to see it if possible.

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  5. Mayor

    Ever consider that the reason the first down rush numbers are so good is because of passing more on first down? Just sayin.’

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  6. The other Doug

    I checked out ESPN’s play by play from the ND game to see if UGA passed more or less in that game.

    27 first down plays with 8 passes and 19 runs, so 29.6% passes vs 38.5% for the season. btw, Fromm was 8 for 8 but some were called back because of penalties.

    3 passes on first downs in the 1st half
    The remaining 5 first down passes were in the 3rd qtr plus the 2nd play of the 4th qtr. Basically, UGA only passed on 1st down for a small part of the game.

    https://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=401110800

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    • doofusdawg

      Thanks for the research. Donnan said we were playing not to lose when Campbell couldn’t go and Stokes went out. I’ll repeat that our close games that go well into the second half appear to be game planned that way… which imo has been to our detriment. Your stats appear to confirm it.

      Sounds like Kirby might be getting more involved with the game planning. Either that or he has evolved.

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  7. St. Johns Dawg

    I think it’s important to remember that many of these first down passes – at least in the first two quarters – have been sideline/screen routes where our playmakers are getting the YAC. Not saying it’s a bad thing, having athletes in space is an awesome plan … Just that it’s easy to think of these stats as Jake throwing the ball downfield all the time … but he’s not. I think against the better defenses Coley/Fromm will have to throw less East/West and more North/South to be effective. Notre Dame showed they studied film of our East-West reverses and swing passes very well … Other good opponents will do the same.

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  8. Macallanlover

    My concern is more the number of downfield passing attempts, than the down we are throwing on. Many of these 1st down attempts are to RBs, or on bubble screen type throws. I love having these in our arsenal, but they do not move the DBs away from the LOS which can minimize the effectiveness of both our running, and short passing plays. It wasn’t an issue with the cupcakes, but we saw how we get get stymied by defenses like we saw with both Vandy, and especially, ND. We had to expect all teams’ first attempts to be stacking players near the line to stop our lethal running game; I don’t understand us allowing ND to do just that and not attempt to counter it with trusting Jake to move them back.

    KS has made two major statements about opening up the offense and making a more aggressive attempt to increase our scoring numbers. Despite that, we have not shown that on the field of play. Giving ND full credit for the intensity they played with on defense, we did not go full out on offense. Either KS is just giving lip service to a goal fans have been clamoring about, and talking heads are downplaying UGA for, or Coley has decided to ignore him. I am not for anything close to an air raid type attack, but we are still very conservative given our QBs talent, and experience level. I think Kirby wants to do what he says we are moving toward but continues to have that little voice in his ear about how he learned football from his dad, and under the conservative Saban. Surely he sees what Saban, and even Orgeron, have done in the past 20 months. Time for UGA to evolve. I also think our recruiting for both WRs and TEs are jeopardized when they look all over the country and see what is happening. That TE display ND put on last weekend did not help us with at least 2 major targets, and we are damned lucky to have the WRs we have gotten given the numbers we put up, imo. It is a buyers’ market and we have a QB that can deliver more respectable passing numbers while maintaining our RB tradition. This philosophy was directly responsible for the Bama loss in the MNC.

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