On Tuesday, my brain had coalesced around the idea that Georgia would win comfortably tonight, but not cover a pretty good-sized spread. Say something like 31-10, caused by a combination of Kirby’s natural manball tendencies and Pruitt’s likely desire not to compose a game plan that would lead to the game getting out of control.
But the damned stats keep getting in the way. I’m not even talking about the advanced version I’ve been posting this week. Just take a look at the most basic of numbers, offensive and defensive scoring against D-1 opponents:
- Georgia: 36.0/7.7 (+28.3)
- Tennessee: 19.7/33.7 (-14.0)
Combined, that’s a 42-point differential. How exactly do you come up with a set of realistic circumstances for the Vols to overcome that? Remember, they’re also last in the conference in turnover margin.
And that’s before you factor in this week’s distractions with Banks and Guarantano.
Yeah, I know Jim Chaney worked his magic once with a quarterback who led Tennessee to an embarrassing win over the Dawgs. If the story tonight winds up being Beyond Maurer, I will be the first to proclaim Chaney’s genius for all the world to hear. But I’m not seeing it.
I thought Georgia would win big over Notre Dame, yes. But this Tennessee team, no matter how hard I squint at it, ain’t Notre Dame. As much as I’m trying, Ringo, and I’m trying real hard to be the shepherd, I can’t bring myself to say Georgia won’t cover tonight. Probably with ease.
Come at me in the comments.