Here’s a chart Josh compiled, showing yesterday’s run/pass success rates based on offensive formation:
Obviously, there were some issues out of 10 and 11 sets. My question for you guys is, assuming Coley is getting fed this information in real time up in the booth — and I sure as hell hope he is — shouldn’t some adjustments have been made in favor of what the players were doing better?
If this is what Kirby was referring to with regards to the coaches helping the kids play better, he’s certainly got a point.
Get The Picture 
This is the offense Kirby wants.
These are the results Kirby gets.
He’s 5-3 in his last 8 games, losing 3 games he should’ve won, because both of his OCs aren’t able to gameplan properly, or if they do gameplan well, stop using that plan, or refuse to make any adjustments at all when the gameplan is stopped.
Either way, as much as Chaney sucked, and he did and does, and as much as Coley sucked yesterday, and he did, this is Kirby’s philosophy. This is his offense. If Kirby doesn’t gain the ability for introspection and the humility to know to fix when he’s wrong, we’ll never win a title with him as coach. He’s just too damn stubborn.
Saban isn’t. He changes when change is needed. Dabo changed when he couldn’t get over the 10 game hump. Belichick literally changes every week on offense AND defense, designing his gameplans on both sides of the ball to always attack the weaknesses of the other team instead of stubborn saying, “This is what we ALWAYS do, stop us.”
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Belichick can do that … he isn’t subject to the 20-hour rule.
Otherwise, your point is taken.
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He also has the waiver wire and trade opportunities.
Our offensive coaches do have schemes and plays we have practiced and run in games to get thed ball to Swift on the open field rather than between the tackles.
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I totally get it. Kirby wanted to play inside the phone booth … Boom was happy to oblige. When you have better athletes across the board, you force the defense to defend the width and length of the field. That’s the part of this I don’t get.
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He also only has 53 players at his disposal. We supposedly have that many 5 star players.
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Russ, my only point is to compare Kirby Smart to Bill Belichick is the epitome of comparing apples and oranges. Belichick has evolved his approach to offense over time (I don’t give a damn about the NFL, so I really have limited context) but has done it with the epitome of a game manager at QB in Tom Brady. He also has the luxury of changing his offense & defense every week since he has 53 guys for whom football is a full-time job.
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Wow I didn’t realize we’re only 5-3 in our last 8 games. That’s not very good now, is it?!
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The epitome of mediocrity.
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Senator, I encourage you to re-watch the ESPN broadcast. Dan Orlovsky mentioned several times the match-up issues they were having with Mukuamu and that the routes they were running weren’t a good plan with the man coverage SC was playing throughout the game. (Orlovsky later compared Fromm’s game to a Mahomes performance recently in the NFL, which was taken by Twitter to be comparing Fromm to Mahomes, sparking the predicted outrage.) But many of his other comments are quite revealing re: the very poor game planing and lack of adjustment by UGA coaching.
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He was very good and had the Dawgs pegged all game
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Thought the same thing also while watching the replay this morning….
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I thought Orlovsky was pretty spot on with assessments (a nice change from some of the commentary) as well as predicting what was coming. Hard to see the field from TV but at times, it looked like Fromm really wanted the right side while D Rob was all alone on the left.
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The passing game was a disaster yesterday before we even get to the issues of turnovers. I’m to the point this morning where I am in kind of a chicken and egg debate on the turnovers. Was the passing game bad because Jake was having a horrible day, or did Jake have a horrible day because the passing game design was so bad?
Looking at how other QBs and OCs have fared against SC this year, I’m leaning towards the second.
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Can someone explain the “Personnel” column?
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Sure the first digit is the number of RBs, the second is the number of TE’s.
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Thanks
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Typically, the first column refers to the number of running backs and the second the number of TEs. So, 10 personnel would be 1 running back and 0 tight ends.
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So the next question becomes, why we’re they not using 12 more, especially as the clock ran down to the 10 minute mark in the 4th quarter??? I’ll hang up and listen to the answer.
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Senator your assumption that knowing this should be in real time is spot on. You would think that with all the QC coaches one of them would be keeping track of this and say stop it it’s killing us. as for the TE’s there were four targets as I recall two to Wolfe and two to Warner and of those three were drops. Whoever is coaching the TE’s he is not doing the job. If every good team we play emulates the 2018 LSU defense as Texas and SCU did, we are screwed, Florida has the defense and special teams to beat us right now using this formula lets hope Grantham is too egotistical to do it otherwise Outback here we come.
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That’s just it. When the game plan is to keep pounding the middle regardless of how successful you are early because you are convinced that it will pay off late… and it doesn’t… well… there you go.
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If Maxwell Smart were a football coach, he would be our offensive coordinator. (only the older folks will catch the reference)
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Missed it by THAT much!
Don’t necessarily have to be older. Just be an 8-year old kid who loved Mel Brooks’s humor and had access to Nick-At-Nite.
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Would you belieeeeve.
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The old run it up the middle over and over trick!
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Our pace is beyond maddening. 20 – 30 seconds to get the play in is just shitty coaching / planning. I keep thinking “Cool Hand Luke” – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=452XjnaHr1A
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A couple of times my head almost exploded in section 137 as I watched the play clock and the game clock continue to bleed away as Fromm is looking to the sideline for the call.
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You should take this data as more evidence that what you saw yesterday was not manball. 93% of our offensive plays were out of what are traditionally considered spread sets. We were really successful on the 6 plays out of traditional manball sets.
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For me, Manball isn’t a formation. It’s a game philosophy based on “making their ass quit” by physically wearing them down. Putting 4 wides on the field and then powering it up the gut over and over with the idea your opponent will crack in the second half? Still Manball.
And it’s viable. But it still requires an offense to be flexible and adaptive and opportunistic.
South Carolina on the year has surrendered 36 passing plays of 15+ yards and 11 of 25+. Rushing: 28 of 10+ and 11 of 10+.
Georgia accounts for 5 of those. 3 rushes for 10+ (none 20+) and 2 passes for 15+ (one for 25+) Only one of those, the 38 yarder to Cager, came in the second half. None went for a score.
Alabama against the same D on the road had 7 by halftime. 3 went for TDs.
UNC had 5 by halftime, including 2 rushes for 25+. None went the distance though.
Explosive plays are there for the taking against this defense. We didn’t take them. It’s not Manball that worries me. It’s Manball or Bust.
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Yep.
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Georgia had 58 called passes to 37 called runs, (61% pass to 39% run). In the second half, there were 31 passes called and 16 rushes (I’m counting Fromm scrambles as passes and the fumble as a rush as that was going to be a rush or an RPO). That is 66% / 33% passing to rushing. The 4th quarter was 22 passing plays to 8 rushes. That is 73% / 27% rushing. Is that man ball?
Is it man ball when Fromm overthows a receiver that isn’t open on a downfield pass play? Do you imagine that Kirby is on the sideline fuming that the receivers are not being physical enough while trying to avoid contact and get open? Is he telling Fromm to impose his will on the throw so that it doesn’t get intercepted? There were more deep throws in this game than in any of the Kirby era. How many rushes between the tackles in a game officially make it “man ball”? Or is it just your and the Senators ability to read Kirby’s mind and ascertain his intentions that makes it “man ball”?
There is only one game in the past decade were Georgia through more passes than in this game, and that was against Missouri in 2016. I’m sorry, but this is straight cognitive dissonance. Y’all thought we would win the game. Losing was the trigger. Now y’all are rationalizing. The backup plan to man ball was to put the game on Fromm’s shoulders. He didn’t come through.
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Manball is whatever you say it is, boss. We’re all just riding in your slipstream.
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“were” vs where, ” through” vs threw…..leads me to doubt your analytical ability.
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Senator every time I read your pregame comments about the dawgs getting easy wins due to statistical matchups, I cringe. It’s like the opposite happens
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One of the things I’ve noticed this year is the splits on the offensive line. Last year they were much wider and we had many more explosive running plays. Conversely, it appears Jake is better protected this year although our receivers have not been able to shake defenders and Jake is forced to hold the ball longer and more times than not must go through all of his progressions. I do not have a great football mind but I’m not sure where the balance is anymore with this team.
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If Coley needed someone to point this out, we need a new OC!
It is the total lack of explosiveness that is missing. We never out-scheme anyone. Kirby loves big blocking WRs but how quickly he forgets I. McKenzie was our most dangerous player in 2016. Looking back at the first six games, nothing has been easy. Sure Cager can make great catches but he shouldn’t have to almost every time!
And, what D coordinator wouldn’t like scheming against UGA. Fromm doesn’t run,, Wormer is rarely used a a receiver, no slants or hitting receivers in stride, no seam routes, few screens, most passes are along the sideline (giving the D even more help). USCe sat in an aggressive single high coverage yesterday and there wasn’t a damn thing we could do about it.
There was a lot of grumbling in the stadium yesterday, but it’s not good when the crowd boos twice. Once when we ran up the middle for the 8,000th time (it was as if Jim Chaney was in Coley’s head), and the other was the decision not to give our great kicker a shot to win the game.
Even in the 4th quarter when we were down 7, I felt as if we were playing not to lose. Bizarre.
I would like to think this loss would be a real wake up call for Kirby and the team, but I’m not so sure.
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Basic mechanics are a big part of it. We don’t get plays in fast enough. We minimize our talent advantage by constantly pushing the play clock near zero before each snap. We can’t run a hurry-up without a penalty. We burn all our timeouts and our kicker is back by the hedge near the opposite end zone kicking into a net.
This offense is not well-coordinated.
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We played Boom’s game, which is even more maddening.
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Muschamp’s game is Kirby’s game, regardless of the talent and situation.
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Execution. If you’re talking about execution whoever made the in game decisions I’m in favor of it.
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Yes, our players made many, many mistakes yesterday: dropped passes, throws off the mark, missed blocks, domination by lesser athletes all over the field on offense, missed/blocked kicks, blown coverage and containment, etc.
But this game was really lost last December when our HC, with virtually unlimited resources and a blank check on whom to go after to fill two coordinator slots went brain dead. He, lazily, decided of all the candidates in the entire country, the two very best choices were (amazingly) sitting just down the hall in BM. Say what?
You can speak all you want about being stubborn, wanting to control things, preferring continuity, team chemistry and communication, but our six million dollar man is one is one of few observers who seems to be unaware of the revolution taking place in CFB on the offensive side. (I am focusing on that specific position because I can accept the DC hire since Kirby is a defensive minded coach and needs less input on the defense.) His oldest mentor, Nick Saban, may have shared Kirby’s offensive philosophy for most of the years KS spent on his staff, but surely he has noticed the change in Alabama’s offensive in the past 5-6 years. And he certainly has heard all the talk about how even Ed Orgeron picked up on the new trends and sought out, and hired a certain offensive pass coordinator from the New Orleans Saints to radically overhaul the Geaux Tigers long suffering, and outdated, philosophy. Smart may have even heard how, in one off season, LSU has jumped to the very top of the NCAA offensive rankings. How hard would it have been to attract a young, bright mind to come to Athens to work with our star-studded lineup of athletes on the big stage? We all know it would have been difficult to work through all the candidates standing in that long line.
Everyone trusted Kirby on this, even when we saw what looked to be a flawed product in the early games. We excused the tired, boring product that looked to the same as what we had under Chaney, assuming there was more to come when it was needed. We now know, it was all a terrible mistake in judgement; there is no shiny new car being held back. That team which couldn’t score an offensive TD for almost the last 3 quarters against Vandy, was really what we planned on winning the SEC title with, then competing with the best of the rest in the Final 4. The joke is on us. On any given Saturday, there are dozens of teams who can play with us, maybe not win, but keep it respectable. When the bright lights go on, there are several who could stomp us on our best day. We aren’t a Top 10 team, I have had that feeling for the past 3 weeks. I see a minimum of 2 more losses, and two more that look closer to being tossups. While true that mathematically “all our goals are in front of us”, my gut says 9-3, possibly 8-4. Four games that look to push us, or worse, are Auburn, FU, Mizzou, and A&M. The dye was cast 10 months ago, what are the chances we make no changes to address this mistake before next season?
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To this point, we ran 90+ plays yesterday and wore down no one. USCe is hardly elite or deep and their D was on the field much of the game. Unfortunately, this is pretty strong evidence that the basis for our O scheme is flawed.
We are 5-3 the last eight….ugh
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I think your comment here is very well stated, thanks. I also agree, upcoming opponents are drooling right now, we are going to lose a few more this year.
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And why did he promote Coley?
Not to play dime store psychologist but Coley is a) a friend and b) beholden to Smart to get this sort of gig. You’ve articulated the other side of the coin on the offense front. Smart had 100% confidence that Coley would be 100% on board with Smart’s strategic vision. And maybe now Smart is realizing he needs someone to voice other perspectives on how to approach that side of the ball:
Because we are wasting talent.
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He promoted Coley because if he didn’t, Jimbo Fisher was going to hire him at TAMU.
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Really? For OC? First I’ve heard that.
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It must be our shared like for a certain Scotch but you were reading my mind in your entire comments. I believe it’s a simple flaw of egotism. Smart can’t conceive that anyone could outplan/outscheme him…he’s the bright new HC, the Lombardi in residence. Either he changes (doubtful) or every eventuality you mentioned will come true. It’s up to him…and with all that talent sitting there, oy veh!
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After yesterday, my only thought is that Dawg’s offense is broken. There’s a gulf a mile wide between what they can actually do and what they perceive can be done. How much of this fiasco falls on the players and how much on the coaches? Can this be fixed in time to salvage the season? Will the players have any confidence in what we’re doing moving forward? I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a season with the potential go down the tubes if this thing isn’t turned around, pronto.
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Almost everyone is pointing to the same problem (or perceived problem…real or not..but something’s sure wrong). The short term solution may be to have the offense go out there an run HUNH for the first few drives…and come back with it again and again.
I’m afraid that what’s keeping that from happening is the conditioning of the giants on the offensive line. HUNH tires not just the defense. But running it while incrementally/each week installing some new stuff would help, would it not?
Run the HUNH and start evolving into a bit of what LSU does. Just a little bit would have made the difference against SC.
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5 wide, empty backfield with Swift in the slot means Swift will shift and run. Every. Damn. Time.
Cleveland as 6th OL and no lead blocker. What in the hell is that?? 6 slow blockers vs a defense with LBs and safeties already coming down hill. If Swift even thought about coming back next year, I imagine that’s over now. Smdh! With a FB, fine but having off to a single back to run off guard? That 6th OL at TE is useless and a huge tipoff.
My gosh! SC defense was already cheating up before the snap of the ball! Every time!
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The problem with this chart is the sample size of one TB and two TE’s(12)…..This chart would make me conclude that we should follow the chart and get more condensed and conservative (because of a high success rate on the 12 formation) but that is not what I think we needed. We just needed a few intermediate slants and not be afraid to run wide once and awhile with Cook or have Fromm keep the read option and run it wide. Figures don’t lie but in this case I don’t think they tell the whole story because of sample size . Six plays is not a large enough sample size for me to conclude these results would be replicated over 30 plays.
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