Your first Cocktail Party stat of the week

Georgia opened as a six-point favorite over Florida and the line quickly dropped to 3.5.  I get it — the South Carolina loss left a mark and Tennessee’s asswhipping of the ‘Cocks didn’t help that perception.  (Although why it didn’t affect the perception of Florida, which struggled to a win in Columbia, I have no idea.)

Anyway, let me start with a stat that should make you sit up and pay attention:  net yards per play.  Against FBS competition, the Dawgs lead the SEC on the defensive side, at 4.26 ypp.  Florida is sixth and comfortably behind, at 5.51 ypp.  At 6.71 ypp, Georgia ranks third in the conference in offensive yards per play and Florida’s 5.95 is next.

Here’s how that looks from a net perspective:

  • Georgia:  1.45 2.45
  • Florida:  .44

That’s right, Georgia’s net is triple better than five times the size of Florida’s.  That’s… kind of big.

Yeah, I’m worried about turnover margin and just general showing up, but if the Dawgs get to play their game like they can (and should), that has all the flavor of last year’s meeting, when Florida kept it close until the dam broke in the fourth quarter.

25 Comments

Filed under Gators, Gators..., Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

25 responses to “Your first Cocktail Party stat of the week

  1. We win turnover margin … we win the game.

    Like

    • The other Doug

      That’s why I think we’re in for a lot of man ball.

      UF has a great secondary, so we won’t risk much against them. We’re going to pound it and pound it waiting for UF to make a mistake or Grantham to blitz at the wrong time.

      Like

      • The FU-Barn game showed we can’t just play manball against them and hope for a 3&G breakdown. You have to get their defense on their heels with balance. You absolutely must make them pay on the back end when Towel Boy decides to attack.

        Like

        • SpellDawg

          Agreed ee. DL & CB are their strengths, man ball alone is a faulty plan. If we don’t keep them honest, the game will be a coin toss.

          Like

  2. Biggen

    Man if we didn’t get the turnover demon worked out is us during the SC game then we are cursed! Hard to imagine we get a replay of that game anytime soon.

    Like

    • dawgtired

      The SC game was weird. Fromm wasn’t himself and he wasn’t the only one. Not predicting an easy win but, I think the loss at SC and the two weeks to think about it, will have the Dawgs focused play. I feel it will be one of those ‘chopping wood for 60 min’ games.

      Like

      • Paul

        dawgtired let’s hope. We haven’t turned in a ‘chopping wood for 60 minutes game’ yet this season. It would be nice to see. Problem is, when you’re seven games into the season and you haven’t done it yet the chances that you actually will do not appear good. I hope I’m wrong about that. There’s been a lot of talk about how we might be ‘holding back’ this season. That’s wishful thinking at best in my opinion. Something isn’t quite right with this team so far this year. Given our level of individual talent we’re under performing as a team. Let’s hope we’ve made good use of the extra week. Otherwise, we could easily lose to both Florida and Auburn. That would suck. The east is ours for the taking. We’re about to find out how badly this team wants it.

        Like

        • Joe Schmoe

          Not sure about your seven-games-in comment. I can recall many a UGA team that didn’t really gel until November and turned out to be really good. This is especially true when you have young players playing key roles like we do at WR. It is definitely possible that the offense could gel toward the end of the year as the WR get experience and more of a relationship with Fromm. At least I hope that is true.

          On Auburn, that offense with Nix looks pretty bad. If we can score over 24 points, we should win that one as I don’t see them having a ton of success against our defense.

          Like

          • Russ

            “If we can score over 24 points”

            That’s a huge IF against their defense if we keep trying to Manball it.

            Like

            • Macallanlover

              That would be insanely stupid to manball it against that team. I see us passing to open up the run, even if by throwing it to backs on a “passing-run” play using Cook/Swift/Herrien combo. Even Smart will instruct Coley to go that way, LSU didn’t gain much via the run until they passed it open.

              Like

  3. chopdawg

    Two worries: O-line and receivers.

    Like

  4. Salty Dawg

    I wish I were more secure about playing the Gayturds, but I’m not. Sorry, Dawgs, but you really shit the bed with the chickens and that left an indelible mark on my pea-brain. I don’t have much trust in which Dawg team is going to show up, which is sad. GO DAWGS!

    Like

  5. If can’t “show up” for the Cocktail Party this team has other worries besides a bad play caller.

    Liked by 1 person

    • D as in Dawg

      This. If the Dawgs can’t show up in this game, why play the game at all.

      Like

    • Charlottedawg

      This, they’ve had people telling them (accurately I might add) for 3 weeks that they suck and their offense couldn’t score in a whore house with a two Auburn paper bags of Benjamins. On top of that they face the very real possibility of losing the division and all of their preseason goals to a rival without a single 5 star recruit who has been talking shit since last year’s moral victory goal line stand.

      Motivation shouldn’t be an issue. If we lose we just suck. That being said I fully expect coley to have a hold my beer type game and give Willie Mart, Ramsey and schotenheimer a run for the title of most incompetent Georgia coordinator.

      Like

      • Macallanlover

        We have not sucked for three weeks. Didn’t suck in the bye week (but they did read that they sucked here, and everywhere), and we didn’t suck against Kentucky. The only thing that caused that perception was the SC game, otherwise a 21-0 win over KY where our defense played great and the offense did exactly what they should have done to protect the W by not turning it over. Yeah, the 1st half was visually bad but that was driven by the worst field position I have ever seen for an entire half, and the torrential rain. Everyone wanted to see us prove we could pass it well after SC, but it wasn’t the game to try and prove we could. Block out the SC game, and you would not have heard a word about conservative play to win by 3 TDs in that slop.

        Like

  6. This game has me extremely worried. I figured it would be tough before our offense was exposed. They played us closer last year than the score indicated with a idiot at QB. Many of you guys made fun of Mullen all summer and as it turns out, the guy can friggin coach. We have to put up points early or it will be a long day. If Grantham gets a 10 pount lead he will run blitz every damn play.

    Like

  7. DaveinAZ

    We have a clear talent and depth advantage over UF. Motivation can not be a real concern sine everything is on the line. So while this game may not be a referendum on Kirby, if Mullen beat us with less talent everywhere and a backup QB ( a backup to Filipe Franks!) I think it is clear who is the better HC. Remember laughing about that claim from some UF fans pre-season?

    Please win Dawgs – I hate all things Gator

    Like

  8. Field position is huge (see SCU and UK games). With the way we don’t flip the field with any punt returns and playing “manball” we could find ourselves in another SC type game and we all know how that turned out. He said, channeling Larry. Grantham will dial up run blitzes until we have to pass then he’ll hope his great DB’s can cover our ? WR’s. Living down here the spread dropped because the Florida faithful really believe they are going to beat us and are putting their money on it.

    Like

  9. Macallanlover

    Like almost all SEC, and Cocktail Party games, this game will be won or lost by the guys in the trenches. Our OL is the key factor, and that is who I am expecting to step up this Saturday. Most of the ink has been all about the passing game, but hidden in a lot of those scathing write-ups is our inability to run and open up the defenses. We have juggled the positions there due to injuries some, but Trey Hill and Cade Mays have fallen on their faces this season and it has jumbled up the run game. Mays has whiffed on run and pass blocks, and Hill has had snap issues and been driven back into our backfield on plays. I expect there was some “man enough” discussions during the bye week.

    We know these same OL players have gotten the job done before, I believe we will see Thomas and Cleveland lead this group back to success on Saturday. If not, I doubt we see the offensive success we all want regardless of what Coley and the staff dial up. I have to believe a motivated group of talented men will respond to having their manhood challenged for the past month. If we do, barring unusual turnovers, that should provide enough offense to win against this FU offense. Everyone is expecting a low scoring game which may mean a 34-21 type game. Go Dawgs!

    Like

  10. Have a Cigar

    Wouldn’t those numbers make our net 2.45? Which is an even bigger disparity. Maybe I’m missing something as would’ve thought somebody would have caught that by now.

    Like