Your Cocktail Party game day post

Shoot me, if you like, but I think today’s game is for the taking if the Dawgs control the run on both sides of the ball, run some up-tempo stuff on offense and don’t turn the ball over.  All that happens, and Georgia covers.

That’s really all I got at this point.  Bitch, moan, scream, praise and anything else in the comments.  See y’all on the other side.

Have run, will trust.

Man, talk about your deep dives.  Here’s several thousand words detailing tendencies for both Georgia and Florida up to this point.  The funny thing is that once you wade through it all, you wind up with conclusions that are certainly recognizable.

I think Florida wins if….

They minimize Georgia’s run game and make Jake Fromm beat them. There’s no doubt the Dawgs will want to come out and establish the run, get a quick score, and let their old-school mentality dictate the flow of the game. While Florida has been shaky against the pass in SEC play, they also have yet to be full strength in quite some time. That being said, Florida has the 5th best Rush Defense Success Rate in the conference with only Missouri and Auburn being more stout on 1st Downs. If they can constantly get UGA to play behind the chains, they might be able to take advantage of Fromm pressing. After all, Florida is 6th nationally in takeaways and Fromm ranks 10th out of 16 SEC passers with at least 20 2nd and 3rd Down attempts with at least 6 yards to gain in Depth Adjusted Accuracy.

Curbing the SEC’s best rushing offense will be no easy task. Florida is already an aggressive-minded defense; no no doubt they will be playing downhill aiming to hit Georgia’s backs head on. Luckily for them, Georgia is play action adverse despite being so successful on the ground. Fromm has the 3rd lowest Play Action Rate among SEC starters entering Week 10. So it might be “what ya see is what ya get” kind of day that could invite a heavier box and manning up on the backend. South Carolina followed a great defensive blueprint in their upset a few weeks ago. They picked their battles against Fromm, and eventually won the day by setting it up for him to take them out, which of course he failed to do.

I think Georgia wins if….

They do what they do best and win on first downs. I talked about how a number of Georgia’s offensive concepts see their best numbers when they’re run to start series. No SEC offense has a better Early Down Conversion Rate than Georgia, and Florida is currently in the bottom 3 in Early Down Conversions Allowed against conference foes. If it gets to 3rd Down, things become much more of a tossup for UGA as they are 7th in Success Rate on these downs compared to being 1st on early downs. Florida has the 4th best Three-and-Out Rate against SEC offenses yet Georgia has the lowest such rate on the offensive side. In the Dawgs’ case, its direct result of their ability to get splash plays and neutralize fronts.

If they can maintain manageable situations, they’ll be far less likely to force Jake Fromm to be superman or allow Florida’s front to pin their ears back. Georgia’s OLine has done an exceptional job limiting sacks, negative runs and other Havoc elements from derailing drives so far this season. They’ll be just fine so long the Gators don’t make them abandon the run.

Just do it, Dawgs.

“And then South Carolina happened.”

I’ve noticed this week that a surprising amount of the national media thinks Florida wins today.  And it is a little weird to see the lower ranked team as an underdog on a neutral field.

A slight variation on that theme is that Georgia, because of preseason expectations, faces much more pressure to win today than do the Gators.

But if the stakes are similar, the pressure points are not.

Florida’s success in Dan Mullen’s second season has fueled optimism in a wary fan base that has years of reason for caution. There’s no real sense Florida has arrived as a power – or even, necessarily, that it would arrive with a win Saturday – but things seem headed in the right direction. A win would be great. And yet, in the overall picture of a program’s progress, a loss would not be debilitating.

By contrast, 2019 was supposed to be the year Georgia emerged fully as a national power, as the SEC’s preeminent power. The rival that Smart and the Bulldogs are trying to supplant is not on the schedule, at least not during the regular season.

All that may or may not be true — I’m not buying that a loss for Florida is something Mullen will easily shrug off — but it sure as hell ought to make for Georgia being as focused for a game as it’s been all season.

Tell those advanced stats to shut up.

I know you guys are tired of hearing this, but…

The adjusted stats don’t love Florida or their chances in this game. Georgia has been plodding but effective on offense and their defense is back to their 2018 standard. The key has been the experience of inside linebackers Monty Rice and Tae Crowder, who are leading the team in tackles. The Bulldogs have been effective at playing big and stout up front and running to the football with a very fast defense that closes and tackles well and fast.

I know, I know.  South Carolina.  Kentucky.

Look, if the Dawgs go minus-4 in turnover margin, they’ll lose.  If we get a monsoon in Jax today, Fromm and the offense will likely be less than efficient.

But if things are relatively normal on both of those fronts, UGA should be fine.  If Florida can’t stop the run, it’s going to be a tough game for the Gators to win.  (Note that Brian Fremeau’s FEI says Dawgs by 12.)

Of all the tweaks in the world available to James Coley…

… this should be at the top of the list today, bar none.

Uptempo– personally, I think Georgia’s biggest offensive issue is pace. We have one of the slowest offensive seconds per play in the country. This allows the defense to get set and gives them more time to respond to your look and personnel. A lot of complaints surround around our offense being predictable. A better pace allows you to keep the defense off balance even if you are running the same damn play over and over again. Fromm will run this offense more efficiently with better pace. Against an offense like LSU or Alabama, maybe you try to slow the pace and hold on to the ball to limit their offensive possessions. Florida’s offense does not scare me in that way and therefore I’m hoping we made huge strides in our offensive speed in between plays for this weekend.

This is such a no-brainer as far as I’m concerned, especially when you consider who Coley is matching wits with.  The benefits are obvious and it doesn’t stop Georgia from RTDB, either.

Don’t overthink this, guys.