Have run, will trust.

Man, talk about your deep dives.  Here’s several thousand words detailing tendencies for both Georgia and Florida up to this point.  The funny thing is that once you wade through it all, you wind up with conclusions that are certainly recognizable.

I think Florida wins if….

They minimize Georgia’s run game and make Jake Fromm beat them. There’s no doubt the Dawgs will want to come out and establish the run, get a quick score, and let their old-school mentality dictate the flow of the game. While Florida has been shaky against the pass in SEC play, they also have yet to be full strength in quite some time. That being said, Florida has the 5th best Rush Defense Success Rate in the conference with only Missouri and Auburn being more stout on 1st Downs. If they can constantly get UGA to play behind the chains, they might be able to take advantage of Fromm pressing. After all, Florida is 6th nationally in takeaways and Fromm ranks 10th out of 16 SEC passers with at least 20 2nd and 3rd Down attempts with at least 6 yards to gain in Depth Adjusted Accuracy.

Curbing the SEC’s best rushing offense will be no easy task. Florida is already an aggressive-minded defense; no no doubt they will be playing downhill aiming to hit Georgia’s backs head on. Luckily for them, Georgia is play action adverse despite being so successful on the ground. Fromm has the 3rd lowest Play Action Rate among SEC starters entering Week 10. So it might be “what ya see is what ya get” kind of day that could invite a heavier box and manning up on the backend. South Carolina followed a great defensive blueprint in their upset a few weeks ago. They picked their battles against Fromm, and eventually won the day by setting it up for him to take them out, which of course he failed to do.

I think Georgia wins if….

They do what they do best and win on first downs. I talked about how a number of Georgia’s offensive concepts see their best numbers when they’re run to start series. No SEC offense has a better Early Down Conversion Rate than Georgia, and Florida is currently in the bottom 3 in Early Down Conversions Allowed against conference foes. If it gets to 3rd Down, things become much more of a tossup for UGA as they are 7th in Success Rate on these downs compared to being 1st on early downs. Florida has the 4th best Three-and-Out Rate against SEC offenses yet Georgia has the lowest such rate on the offensive side. In the Dawgs’ case, its direct result of their ability to get splash plays and neutralize fronts.

If they can maintain manageable situations, they’ll be far less likely to force Jake Fromm to be superman or allow Florida’s front to pin their ears back. Georgia’s OLine has done an exceptional job limiting sacks, negative runs and other Havoc elements from derailing drives so far this season. They’ll be just fine so long the Gators don’t make them abandon the run.

Just do it, Dawgs.

9 Comments

Filed under Gators, Gators..., Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics

9 responses to “Have run, will trust.

  1. FlyingPeakDawg

    I trust our D but we can’t leave them in a hole all day. The entire universe knows Grantham’s playbook. I hope we see an offensive game plan that embarrasses him instead of playing into his hand. Hoping instead of knowing is what is bothering me the most.

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  2. I agree with most of that. We’re probably gonna have to be balanced and we’ll need to be able to run to be able to pass. Protect the ball. Play defense. I’ve been hard on the offense but that is the formula nearly everyone goes for, even if there are different ways to get there.

    All of this would help the D out, too. Go Dawgs!

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  3. RangerRuss

    Win the turnover battle. Win the game. Cut loose. Get After That Ass.
    GO DAWGS!!!
    Fuck those motherfuckers.

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  4. TN Dawg

    It’s almost weird to read, “If Florida Wins….they put the game in Jake Fromm’s hands”.

    JF’s confidence may be unwavering, but it appears the rest of the world around him has their doubts.

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    • Macallanlover

      Fortunately, he is a confident young man; people who have been winning all their lives seem to be like that. I will agree, we need to have success in the run game to make our offense roll. But Jake can also draw from the success he had against them last season when we got to 3rd time many times and he found someone. Glad to have Cager back though, they seem to have a solid chemistry.

      It is a shame to see so many Dawg fans questioning him, seems like he has done enough over the past 2 1/2 years to earn that trust/respect. I don’t care about the outsiders that don’t see him every week, it is the UGA fans I have an issue with on this subject. He has really only had 2 off days that I can recall, and some of that was not all on him. Think he will be fine, need the OL to do their job in run and pass blocking. They seem to be getting healthier, and they have heard their share of doubters the past few weeks.

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  5. Tronan

    This analysis has aged as well as chicken salad in the August sun.

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