I know you guys are tired of hearing this, but…
The adjusted stats don’t love Florida or their chances in this game. Georgia has been plodding but effective on offense and their defense is back to their 2018 standard. The key has been the experience of inside linebackers Monty Rice and Tae Crowder, who are leading the team in tackles. The Bulldogs have been effective at playing big and stout up front and running to the football with a very fast defense that closes and tackles well and fast.
I know, I know. South Carolina. Kentucky.
Look, if the Dawgs go minus-4 in turnover margin, they’ll lose. If we get a monsoon in Jax today, Fromm and the offense will likely be less than efficient.
But if things are relatively normal on both of those fronts, UGA should be fine. If Florida can’t stop the run, it’s going to be a tough game for the Gators to win. (Note that Brian Fremeau’s FEI says Dawgs by 12.)