Tell those advanced stats to shut up.

I know you guys are tired of hearing this, but…

The adjusted stats don’t love Florida or their chances in this game. Georgia has been plodding but effective on offense and their defense is back to their 2018 standard. The key has been the experience of inside linebackers Monty Rice and Tae Crowder, who are leading the team in tackles. The Bulldogs have been effective at playing big and stout up front and running to the football with a very fast defense that closes and tackles well and fast.

I know, I know.  South Carolina.  Kentucky.

Look, if the Dawgs go minus-4 in turnover margin, they’ll lose.  If we get a monsoon in Jax today, Fromm and the offense will likely be less than efficient.

But if things are relatively normal on both of those fronts, UGA should be fine.  If Florida can’t stop the run, it’s going to be a tough game for the Gators to win.  (Note that Brian Fremeau’s FEI says Dawgs by 12.)


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

7 responses to “Tell those advanced stats to shut up.

  1. Bright Idea

    Just don’t play and coach uptight like you don’t belong on this big stage. Forget the banter and let it loose.


  2. practicaldawg

    It feels a lot like the game last year when everything favored the dawgs, but you had a lot of vocal media homers like Palmer and Tebow who seemed to just try to will the gators to win.

    I like the fact that the gator fan base thinks a win would be gravy and a loss would be ok. I’m fine with them being resigned to finishing behind the dawgs most years.


  3. Salty Dawg

    Yeah, sorry. Stats don’t heal my insecurity. We are still dealing with young adults who may or may not mentally show up for this game. Plus, how stubborn is Kirby going to be as far as adjustments? Coley seems to either no mind of his own or he isn’t savvy enough to be OC. Stats don’t replace emotions and who gets punched in the mouth first! GO DAWGS!


    • junkyardawg41

      I am with you. We may win this game from a shear physicality standpoint but I kind of get Marcus Spears’ point about this UGA offensive team looking like the offensive teams at LSU the last few years of Les Miles’ tenure. And that causes me insecurity. (****NOTE: I will be happy to jump up and say I was a chicken little if the offensive explodes.)


      • Macallanlover

        His observation seems a fair one until you look at UGA’s production on offense relative to what LSU did. True, we are 2 of the most significant holdouts on running a pro-style offense but we have ranked highly with that scheme while they relied on defense. I hope we open up in the future while not going all-out spread, but this year isn’t going to change much. Just need to get back to executing while hoping our staff puts us in a better position to use our skill guys. The SC game caused a lot of overreaction, almost all because of 4 TOs, all on us. We aren’t broken on offense but do require a few tweaks. We had enough time to do that over the past 2-3 weeks.


  4. Macallanlover

    Sounds about right, I think we win between 10-17 in a hard fought game decided in the trenches. If both teams are getting their injured payed back, with all due respect to their 2 DL guys, that favors UGA. Dawgs 27-16


  5. BuffaloSpringfield

    Brian Freeman was wrong #FTMF