Saturday’s chicken or egg question

It’s about Auburn’s starting quarterback ($$).

In the first nine games of his college career, Auburn quarterback Bo Nix averaged fewer than six yards per attempt five times. He completed less than 60 percent of his pass attempts four times. He threw at least one interception three times.

The three games that fit into all three categories were Auburn’s 27-21 win against Oregon, its 23-14 loss at Florida and its 23-20 loss at LSU.

That trio of games have two things in common. They all were away from home for Auburn, and they all were against teams that are currently ranked inside the top 11 of the latest College Football Playoff rankings.

This Saturday, a fourth member of that top six, No. 4 Georgia, will play Auburn. Two weeks later, the Tigers will face No. 5 Alabama.

In those games, a crucial question about Nix, Gus Malzahn and Auburn’s 2019 offense as a whole will be answered — were the Tigers’ struggles in those games due to tough environments or tough opponents?

There’s a case to be made for a little of both — Nix says it’s easier to communicate at home and that seems like a safe bet.

But speaking of easier, Nix’ three best performances as measured by passer rating have come against Kent State, Mississippi State and Arkansas.  (The rest of his season falls between 75.85 and 133.09, which ranges from poor to average.)  Nationally, defensive passer ratings for those three teams rank 99th, 94th and 114th, respectively.  Powerhouses they’re not, in other words.

Georgia’s defensive passer rating coming in to the game is 107.94.  That’s ninth-best in the country.  But Nix is playing at home.


Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

26 responses to “Saturday’s chicken or egg question

  1. FlyingPeakDawg

    The answer is Wounded Duck…as in what that kid throws. Time to create havoc and get some turnovers!

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Charlottedawg

    Jake Fromm’s passer rating will determine the outcome of this game, not Bo nix’s.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Russ

      Agreed. We control the narrative and our own fate.

      Though I’ll say the number above that stuck out the most to me was “23”, as in what LSU was able to score against Auburn in Baton Rouge. Yikes!

      Liked by 1 person

    • TXBaller

      Disagree. Our secondary has had little to no turnovers. Nix has not seen a secondary like the Dawgs (Delpit/Fulton overrated and exposed last week for the frauds they are). Nix was a pathetic 15-35, 157 yards with a TD & INT v LSU. Gonna be uglier v The Dawgs. Pressure & turnovers in bunches is what will be the difference for a UGA victory.


  3. stoopnagle

    I woke up today feeling not good about this game.

    Auburn was off last week to plan and get healthy
    Auburn is at home with a very good defense
    Auburn has a history of spoiling good years for us (& vice versa)
    Kirby’s Georgia has yet to show up for an away SEC west game
    Georgia’s offense still feels shackled & we’re 12 weeks into 2019
    Bama needs Auburn to win (granted this is super-voo-doo-ie)

    This isn’t to say there aren’t points to make in Georgia’s favor. This is just where I’m at right now.


    • MDDawg

      I often wonder what the difference is between the team “not showing up” as opposed to getting out-coached and/or out-played?


      • 79Dawg

        The difference is whether the applicable person making the comment wants to throw the coaches or the players under the bus…

        Liked by 1 person

      • Macallanlover

        And I wonder what is so different about “the West” teams from other non-home games. It makes for a measurable statistical grouping, but is different from other high environment/pressure games (SECCGs, Rose Bowl, SC, TN, South Bend, Gator Bowl, etc.). Damned good Auburn team in 2017, good LSU team last year, and a total mismatch in Oxford. Small sample with other variables, versus larger sample and some good, to very good teams away from Sanford. Not much better than the worthless 0 for 30 pass attempts for Jake Fromm that got blown up earlier this month. Yes, JH and Death Valley are tough to play in. Old MIss would have beat the pants off our 2016 team in Sanford that year. Meh, it will be tough this Saturday but it isn’t the location being in “the West”, imo. Would be just as tough had the SEC moved Auburn to the East last year.

        Liked by 1 person

      • stoopnagle

        I think it depends if you’re an irrational Georgia fan or an impartial spectator. I tripped over my Munson this morning, so I’m all doom and gloom. Optimism typically returns late on Friday once the third beer opens.

        Liked by 1 person

  4. Mick Jagger

    But we have the greatest offensive line EVAH


  5. Time for Gus to receive his giant buy-out.

    Dawgs roll 42-20.

    Y’all worry too much. Georgia (Vegas aside) is the underdog with the chip on its shoulder in this game. We’re the ones going into a hostile environment. We’re the ones who EVERYONE in the universe agrees is wildly over-rated.

    Talking heads like Rick Neuheisel proclaim Auburn is “without question” the best defense in the country….

    Opponents points per game (national rank):
    Georgia: 9.2ppg (2nd)
    Auburn: 17.4ppg (11th)

    Opponents yards per game (national rank):
    Georgia: 257.8 (4th)
    Auburn: 334.1 (25th)

    Oh yeah, I forgot, Auburn’s played a tougher schedule (blah blah blah). They gave up 23 to Mississippi State at home.

    Kirby and company dials up some special sauce when it comes to play calling, and our players show up playing to their full potential (as a unit) for the first time this season.

    I can dream can’t I?

    Liked by 6 people

  6. mwo

    Rest assured, UGA will get his best shot! Also, fuck Auburn!


  7. Russ

    I like driving my truck.


  8. William H.

    I’d say more important than Nix is how does the Aub. running game perform? If they get traction, Nix will have a much easier time. I don’t see them taking deep shots with a frosh QB. So then, how do you get production if your ground game can’t get going? They will come out with some crazy screen packages, and or some reverses. Just my opinion.


  9. This game comes down to turnovers and 3rd down. Whoever wins those 2 areas wins the game because that team is going to win the field position battle.

    If Jake from State Fromm plays well, Dawgs win.

    Liked by 1 person


    Probably gonna be a grind for both teams. Ever who protects the ball best wins. I’m betting DAWGS! 21- 17


  11. ApalachDawg

    The smoke signals coming from Seminole country in the panhandle say… Dawgs win by 2 TDs.
    Kirbys war machine takes another scalp.


  12. ATL Dawg

    This is way off topic but I found it interesting and didn’t know where else to put it…

    Notre Dame’s home sellout streak will end this weekend against #23 Navy (7-1). They’ve sold out 273 straight games, starting with the first home game of the 1974 season. That’s 45+ seasons (almost 46) of selling out every single game. They don’t expect to sell out next Saturday’s home finale against Boston College either.

    They have/had the second longest streak in the country. Nebraska is first with 373 straight sellouts.


  13. Ho hum…
    Sick of hearing about the awesome defense at AU.
    A DOMINANT defensive line? They must lead the league in rushing defense, right? And certainly they have to be the league leader in sacks as well, right?
    A Malzahn led Auburn has beaten UGa 3 times out of 10 this decade.
    Ho. Hum.