… to the dreaded vote of confidence.
Boom will have plenty of time to express his appreciation, since his team isn’t going bowling this season.
Daily Archives: November 15, 2019
Take or defer?
I enjoy Brooks Tilley’s weekly previews and, honestly, this Auburn take feels right…
We have to start fast. I’m normally a strict defer guy when it comes to the coin toss. This game might be different. If you give Auburn the ball first and somehow they manage a few big plays as our defense settles into the first drive, that could be a big early disadvantage. The thing you have to prepare for in these high profile away games is the snowball effect. Most of Georgia’s true road losses under Kirby Smart (LSU 18, Auburn 17, hell even Ole Miss 16) have been snowball type games where the opposing teams grabs an early lead or early momentum and from there on out, nothing can go right for the Dawgs. I think our quality depth significantly outweighs Auburn’s so if it’s a 4 quarter fight, I like the Dawgs. But I think we need to start with the ball and bang out a few perimeter runs or deep routes over the middle to cool the crowd and get things started.
… but weirdly enough, in the four games Smart’s coached against Auburn, the team that scored first only won one of those (last year’s Georgia win), and even in that instance, Auburn took the lead away and held it for much of the second quarter.
So, assuming Georgia wins the coin toss, what would you do?
Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football
About the schedule skewing stats
For what it’s worth,
Auburn’s played four such opponents.
Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
The other quarterback
One other thing of note from Matt Hinton:
The stat: 82.5 points
That’s the difference between Bo Nix’s pass efficiency rating vs. losing teams (175.4) and his rating vs. winning teams (95.9), easily the widest gap among SEC quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts in both columns. Put another way: As ahead of the curve as he has looked at times, the freshman has struggled against the top half of the schedule.
… In the losses in Gainesville and Baton Rouge, especially, Auburn failed to establish any kind of rhythm on the ground, forcing its fledgling QB to pick up too much of the slack. Even more telling than Nix’s 4 interceptions in those games (only one of which led to points for the other side) were the offense’s dozen 3-and-outs.
In the same vein, it’s impossible to separate the chasm in Nix’s home/road splits with the fact that he’s yet to face an above-average defense at home. That will change in a big way vs. Georgia, an elite unit that comes in as the SEC’s best in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense, pass efficiency defense, 3rd down defense, red zone defense, yards per play allowed, 1st downs allowed, explosive plays allowed and Defensive SP+.
Can Georgia make the Gus Bus one-dimensional? If so, you gotta like the Dawgs’ chances tomorrow.
Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
Raised stakes
Matt Hinton makes an interesting point.
No self-respecting SEC fan needs an excuse to tune into Auburn-Georgia, no matter how good the teams happen to be in a given year. But these are fat times for the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. Saturday’s edition will be the 5th consecutive in which one or both teams (in this case Georgia) comes in with legitimate Playoff aspirations, and the 3rd in as many years in which both teams are ranked in the top 15 in the AP poll. Before 2017 that had only happened twice in the previous 30 years.
[Insert “it just means more” crack here.]
Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football
Edgy
Jake Rowe compares the position groups for tomorrow’s game. His score: Georgia 7, Auburn 2, Push 1. As a surface look, that’s fine, but Nathan digs a little deeper.
So, when UGA’s offense is on the field, in the 25 statistics I track, they are “tied” with Auburn’s defense at 12 – 12 – 1 in terms of which team is higher ranked in each category. That seems pretty even, but a deeper examination tips things slightly in the Tiger’s favor. In categories in which UGA outranks Auburn, they are, average, 13 ranks above the Plainsmen. In categories where Auburn has the advantage, the Dawgs average 22 ranks lower than their opponent. To put that in a more concise way: the advantages the Auburn D has are bigger than the advantages the UGA offense has.
When Auburn is holding the ball, this exercise yields a much different result. The Dawg’s defense has consistently outperformed the Tiger’s D: they outrank the Tigers in 24 of 25 statistical categories. The average ranking differential between these two units is also stark. The only statistical advantage the orange and blue have on offense is their ability to prevent havoc, where they are ranked 24 in the nation, far outstripping the Dawgs 74th ranked havoc rate. However, in the other 24 categories, UGA’s defense is out-performing the Auburn offense by an average of 44 ranks. The biggest statistical advantage to UGA here is in defending the explosive pass, where UGA is ranked 4th in the nation, and is facing the 114th most explosive passing attack in the country. It’s not just that UGA’s D has done a better job this year than Auburn’s O; it’s that, statistically, these two units aren’t even in the same zip-code.
Barring a rash of turnovers, I’ll be surprised if either team cracks 21 points tomorrow.
Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football
TFW manball does the job
Why does Georgia run the ball up the middle into stacked fronts?
Because, more often than not, it works.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
More than average
Never thought I’d type something like this, but Jake Fromm needs to up his game down the stretch. Check out his seasonal breakdown:
Like it or not, his performance has been in steady decline over the course of this year. His completion percentage has dropped each month. His yards per attempt are down significantly. All of that is reflected in his passer rating, which was subpar in October and is just slightly above water this month. Interestingly enough, the one thing that’s up are his passing attempts.
I don’t know what’s fair to chalk that up to — playcalling and inexperience in the receiving corps come to mind, but Fromm’s also been a little inconsistent with his throws at times, too.
I also don’t want to make overly much of this. Yes, he played a significant role in the South Carolina loss, but he’s made his share of big time throws in October and November, too.
It just feels like his team’s gonna need more from him, especially in the next two games.
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
Where has all the play action gone?
Currently, Georgia’s run/pass ratio on offense is roughly 57/43. That’s not particularly surprising. This is, though.
If running is the bread, play action used to be the butter of Georgia’s offense. Now, what is? The read option where Fromm never keeps the ball?
Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics
Efficiency
This tracks something I posted earlier this week. It puts in chart form Brian Fremeau’s FEI metric, which tracks the efficiency of teams by drive.
Auburn’s numbers are good, but Georgia’s are better — a half point greater on offense and a half point lower on defense.
Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!
Get The Picture 
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