TFW manball does the job

Why does Georgia run the ball up the middle into stacked fronts?

Because, more often than not, it works.

37 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

37 responses to “TFW manball does the job

  1. Uglydawg

    Zamir White has thirty carries between the tackles? Wow..I would have bet it was much under that.
    And we tend to see him later in the game when defenses are ‘softened up”. Maybe CKS should run Z and Herrien early so things will be more open for Swift and his great cutting.

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  2. Something is missing here. Like those old word problems in math class when the answer is: D) Not enough information given.

    What on earth counts as “success” here? Anything less than 3 yards on downs 1 & 2 and anything less than converting a 3rd down to 1st is NOT success in my book.

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    • Uglydawg

      I ‘spect he took all of the RB’s with more than 30 inside runs and ranked them according to their average yards per carry. It’s the word “Rate” that makes it weird.

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      • This website defines as:

        Success Rate (running backs):
        “A measure of running back consistency based on the percentage of carries where the player gains 40% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, or 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down…..”
        https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary

        Not sure if this is the same definition SEC Stats website is using…..

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        • And I’m looking at the website and the numbers I’m pulling don’t quite match up with their tweet:

          The SEC most successful rushers on “inside runs” per Success Rate -min 30 att:

          1) N. Harris: 63.95%
          2) C. Edwards-Helaire: 53.33%
          3) I. Spiller: 52.86%
          4) B. Herrien: 51.85%
          5) G. Shrader: 47.46%
          6) R. Boyd: 47.00%
          7) D. Swift: 46.60%
          8) K. Hill: 46.51%
          9) T. Feaster: 44.87%
          10) S. Phillips: 41.59%

          I think the tweet is wrong….. since, as already alluded to be another commenter, it seems HIGHLY unlikely that Z. White has had 30 such carries.

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          • Although it lists White as having 42 such carries. Hmmmm.

            BTW…. only one RB in SEC has had 30+ such runs in the red zone: Edwards-Helaire….. and his success percentage is 55.58% on those carries. Good gravy.

            Can you tell I’m loving this website? ha.

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    • Anonymous

      “Success” is generally defined as 4+ yards on 1st down, half the needed yardage on 2nd, and converting on 3rd.

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  3. Ginny

    Don’t come at us with these stats and logic, Senator. 😉

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    • Yeah, I know. When you’re a true pessimist, reality doesn’t matter.

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      • Gaskilldawg

        Yeah, Munson would worry that William and Mary had a great placekick holder.

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        • Gaskilldawg

          Actually, I think Munson privately wasn’t a pessimist. Munson was a master at creating drama for the broadcast. I mean that as a compliment to his skills. He wanted his audience to be emotionally involved in the game. Creating fear of the opponent and fear of our chances was a dramatic technique, in my opinion.

          Liked by 2 people

          • Derek

            Very true. And to me the best part of his engaging us into the drama that he, not created, but enhanced significantly, is that you knew the outcome meant as much to him as it did us.

            He will always be missed.

            Would have loved to hear him call the Rose Bowl.

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            • Gaskilldawg

              Don’t you know it! the Rose Bowl would have been his finest work.

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            • Uglydawg

              This is so true. And yeah..Larry’s call of the Rose Bowl would have been wonderful.
              His pre kickoff description..”Now Get the Picture”…of the scene would have sent chills up our spines.
              BTW…I can still remember Keith Jackson’s call as the Georgia team ran onto the field in the ’80 Sugar. He was second only to Larry. These guys made us love CF and it hurts that they’re gone…I know people that were superficial GT fans (that means they only thought they were) that Larry won over to Georgia with his magic.

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              • Macallanlover

                I fear they may have been forced to bring Larry back in a box after that Rose Bowl, even if he were just in his 30s or 40s.

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            • California dawg

              Give it a few years and an AI-powered Munson will be calling games again. Won’t be the same, but it’ll be better than Scott Howard.

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          • PTC DAWG

            He was awesome..no doubt.

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  4. MDDawg

    What about the success rate on “outside runs”? I don’t think anyone’s suggested that we totally abandon inside runs, rather we should mix it up more with the outside stuff.

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      • chopdawg

        Uh-oh, guess who’s coming to Athens next weekend.

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      • MDDawg

        So we should be running Swift on the outside more? I’m only half-serious. I don’t think you can just look at these two stats in a vacuum, but Swift being 15 percentage points more successful on outside runs can’t be ignored either.

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  5. ApalachDawg

    Run the ball
    Stop the Run
    Play solid D

    formula for winning in football since the stone age.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Derek

      Running along side for all that time?

      Idiot bleacher coordinators bitching about things they don’t have any clue about incessantly.

      The only tweak I’d give to that formula is that there is a difference between a championship season, in which those three elements are essential, and winning a particular game.

      Sometimes your match ups won’t allow you to win a single game like that so you have to be able to execute an alternative plan. Btw: South Carolina is NOT that game.

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  6. So, I had not looked at that SEC Stats website before. So cool!

    The thing that jumps out at me? It doesn’t matter how you slice the data, by any metric, under any situation, coming out of any formation…..

    LSU’s Edwards-Helaire is a baaaaaaad man.

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    • Random SEC Stats observation:

      QBs ranked by # of 3rd-down pass attempts
      (# of Attemps | Comp % | Total yds):

      Hilinski (SCar): 94att | 57% | 512yds
      Fromm (UGA): 72att | 61% | 561yds
      Nix (Auburn): 71att | 52% | 427yds
      Bryant (Mizzou): 55att | 58% | 479yds
      Mond (aTm): 54att | 48% | 358yds
      Burrow (LSU): 50att | 68% | 408yds

      I was surprised to see Fromm second on this list. Is this symptom of UGA being in a lot of 3rd-and-long situations?

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      • Will (the other one)

        I think there’s at least a bit of correlation. What I remember was statistically odd, in the Florida game Fromm was Heisman-like on third downs, but out-and-out terrible as you could be without throwing a pick on any other passing downs.

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        • Macallanlover

          That 3rd down performance against FU was the mirror of what was done in last season’s game as well. The single largest takeaway from those two games, imo, other than the Ws of course.

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  7. Huntindawg

    ”Because, more often than not, it works.”

    I’m not a stats guru, and I don’t mean this in a sarcastic or caustic way, but doesn’t a success rate of 46% mean that more often than not it Does Not work? Whereas outside runs more often than not Do work?

    If I’m reading that right, it kinda correlates with my gut reaction about our consistent up the middle runs being generally less than effective.

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  8. PTC DAWG

    Run the damn ball.

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  9. Senator, your comment “more often than not it works” is pointless when the question is “does it work better than running OUTSIDE”? And the answer is (surprise) it doesn’t.

    I’ve decided to look at SEC opponents only (+ND) to include some sort of measure for “quality” games using the same (amazing) SEC Stats website:

    Georgia RBs in SEC games (plus ND), Success Rate % running up the middle (and # of carries):

    1) B. Herrien: 51.06% (47)
    2) Z. White: 48.39% (31)
    3) D. Swift: 43.62% (94)
    4) J. Fromm: 20.00% (15)

    WHEREAS:

    Georgia RBs in SEC games (plus ND), Success Rate % running OUTSIDE (and # of carries):

    1) D. Robertson: 100.00% (3)
    2) Z. White: 100.00% (1)
    3) D. Swift: 65.79% (38)
    4) J. Fromm: 60.00% (5)
    5) B. Herrien: 57.14% (14)
    6) T. Simmons: 50.00% (6)
    7) J. Cook: 20.00% (10)

    http://secstatcat.com/team/georgia/rusher-stats
    I’m using the search tool at the bottom.

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    • To be clear, I’m not trying to say that I think the answer to all our problems is simply “call more outside run plays.” I’m trying to point out why the average fan doesn’t understand that the game is about taking what the defense gives you.

      I actually trust the coaching staff (overall) to know when it’s best to execute an inside run versus outside run depending on what defensive scheme they’re facing on any given down.

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      • BUT! That being said, if you want to see something REALLY depressing, look at stats from SCar loss:

        Georgia RBs Success Rate % running INSIDE (and # of carries)
        1) D. Swift: 59.09% (22)
        2) Z. White: 33.33% (12)
        3) J. Cook: 0.00% (1)
        4) J. Fromm: 0.00% (4)

        Georgia RBs Success Rate % running OUTSIDE (and # of carries)
        1) J. Fromm: 100.00% (2)
        2) D. Swift: 100.00% (1)
        3) J. Cook: 100.00%(1)

        OOF. We only ran a RB outside twice in that game? Versus 35 INSIDE? LOL

        Liked by 1 person