The other quarterback

One other thing of note from Matt Hinton:

The stat: 82.5 points

That’s the difference between Bo Nix’s pass efficiency rating vs. losing teams (175.4) and his rating vs. winning teams (95.9), easily the widest gap among SEC quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts in both columns. Put another way: As ahead of the curve as he has looked at times, the freshman has struggled against the top half of the schedule.

… In the losses in Gainesville and Baton Rouge, especially, Auburn failed to establish any kind of rhythm on the ground, forcing its fledgling QB to pick up too much of the slack. Even more telling than Nix’s 4 interceptions in those games (only one of which led to points for the other side) were the offense’s dozen 3-and-outs.

In the same vein, it’s impossible to separate the chasm in Nix’s home/road splits with the fact that he’s yet to face an above-average defense at home. That will change in a big way vs. Georgia, an elite unit that comes in as the SEC’s best in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense, pass efficiency defense, 3rd down defense, red zone defense, yards per play allowed, 1st downs allowed, explosive plays allowed and Defensive SP+.

Can Georgia make the Gus Bus one-dimensional?  If so, you gotta like the Dawgs’ chances tomorrow.

14 Comments

Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

14 responses to “The other quarterback

  1. This is the type of game Kirby was hired to win. If we lose this game , especially considering Kirby’s lack of a SEC West road win, in many ways it will actually be more concerning to me than the SCar loss.

    Like

  2. Muttley

    It’s Auburn Eve, folks. An annual day of hatred, reflection, and togetherness as we are reminded that evil endures, and it’s orange and blue. It’s a malignant, cornered toomer that goes by more names than Beelzebub.

    Let’s make ’em reserve their TP for home use and get the hoses out again.

    Like

  3. jhorne2000

    Seems like the stats slightly favor UGA overall on this one. Seems like that was the case 2 years ago also. I think we all had more confidence going in two years ago than we do today though.

    What’s the stats for “showing up” , “coming out flat”, and “physicality” ?

    Liked by 1 person

    • illinidawg

      Speak for yourself.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Muttley

      That’s kind of the way I see it. In a rivalry game, a lot of wild cards are in play. Of the mental edges, Jordan-Hare goes their way. Two years ago I said with way too much confidence that playing over their hadn’t ever bothered us much.

      But what’s on the table, series momentum, almost everything intangible else tilts to the red and black, not to mention overall talent and an experienced QB. I don’t know if the Birmingham Boys dare to intervene much with the yellow flags, either. If both teams play their A game- or if both teams play their B game- it’s Georgia.

      But it’s a rivalry game.

      Like

  4. Joe Schmoe

    I think the fact that Gus doesn’t really have the dynamic RB or experienced QB means UGA really shuts down Auburn’s offense. I think we force Nix to make a mistake or two and those turnovers end up being the difference. UGA 19 – Auburn 10

    Liked by 1 person

  5. 79Dawg

    Looking at the LSU game in a little more detail now, it’s pretty obvious Nix struggled mightily. Their TDs came off a fumbled punt by LSU at the 20 or so, and a TD at the end of the game when they started in plus territory. That said, LSU did intercept a pass at the goalline to end the half, and Auburn had an explosive 70 yard play to start the second half (ended up with a FG). Other than that, not much in the way of sustained drives – just one long slog for a FG.
    Sounds like we will be playing a low-risk, field position game…. First team to 21 wins maybe?

    Like

  6. William H.

    The thing that worried me about a slog of a game is, Kirby’s approach requires perfect execution at all times to be effective. If a few things go wrong, and Gus’ rabbit foot makes an appearance, we are up schitt creek. Unless they uncork some plays that really shake that Auburn D line loose, I will be on edge the whole game I’m afraid. this may be a place to actually bring out some of the “butter” play action stuff, as everyone knows we want to run the damn ball.

    Like

    • Seems like we need to get to more of that butter play action. For some reason that no one here knows, we run run option play where Jake fools absolutely no one when pretending to keep it.

      Like

  7. I think this game will be about the QBs. Running the ball is obviously important but it’ll take success throwing to open up the run. Whichever QB does this the best will be the winning QB.

    This is why I like our chances. We may not have their DTs but I think our D is better overall. We also have a better QB. Obviously, our OL will have to take care of him.

    Like

  8. RangerRuss

    Tomorrow would be a great time for a couple defensive TD’s.
    Fuck those cheating assholes.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Got Cowdog

      I’m invoking the aubrun clause to the FTMF rule.
      #fuckthemotherfuckers

      BTW RR I responded to your playpen post. I was out in the field all day yesterday (literally)

      Like

  9. dawgtired

    I’m sure we’ll get their best shot.
    This is my Birthday game. I hope my wishes come true…
    Things I like…
    -quick pitches to the RBs
    -wheel routes
    -passes to the TEs & RBs on the seam
    -back-shoulder passes to Cager & Pickens
    -crossing routes with WRs
    -inside stunts by DL
    -an occasional run blitz

    Liked by 1 person