Daily Archives: November 22, 2019

Why we manball

Let Matt Hinton lay it out for you.

The stat: 6.6 yards per attempt

That’s the average gain of a Jake Fromm pass vs. SEC opponents this season, a steep decline from the past 2 years — down from 9.2 yards per attempt in 2017 and 8.8 per attempt in 2018. The current number ranks 8th among regular SEC starters, nearly 5 full yards per attempts behind the league leader, Tua Tagovailoa (11.3), and almost 4 yards behind Joe Burrow (10.4).

It’s also one of many, many ways to point to the recurring theme of Georgia’s offense in 2019: Namely, the Bulldogs’ mystifying lack of explosiveness

In general, Fromm has been good for roughly 1 successful downfield shot per game — his only 25+ yard completions in the wins over Notre Dame, Florida, and Auburn were touchdowns covering 36, 52, and 51 yards, respectively — amid a steady diet of dinking and dunking. Despite their enviable depth at wide receiver, the Bulldogs’ average yards per catch in SEC games (11.0) ranks 10th out of 14 teams.

As long as the defense is holding up its end of the bargain the risk-averse approach makes sense: Georgia is tied for the national lead in scoring D vs. FBS opponents and remains the only team that has held every opponent to 17 points or less in regulation…

I don’t see either Texas A&M or Georgia Tech threatening that recipe.  The question is what Kirby does to counter a vibrant offense, but that’s a decision for three weeks down the road.  In the meantime, if it ain’t broke…

73 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics

TFW you’re concerned Alabama’s not getting enough love

Gee, I wonder what happened.

26 Comments

Filed under Alabama, BCS/Playoffs, PAWWWLLL!!!

Everybody talks about the weather…

While I’m on the subject of tomorrow’s conditions, it’s worth considering two things that are usually magnified in a wet grinder of a game:  field position and turnovers.

With regard to the latter, against FBS opponents, turnover margin is pretty much a wash — +3 for Georgia, +1 for TAMU — but there is a difference in overall numbers, in that the Aggies both turn the ball over and force turnovers at a rate about twice that of the Dawgs.

As far as field position and rain, the good news is that Camarda had one of his best games of the season against Kentucky.  The bad news is that Texas A&M’s punter may be better.

Georgia has been pretty good one special teams this season but, the way we see it, A&M is right there. Jake Camarda is having a really good year and was probably the Bulldogs’ MVP against Auburn, but Braden Mann is probably the best in the league. He’s averaging over 48 yards per boot. The Aggies are third in the SEC in punt returns while Georgia is ranked 10th. Neither team has done much on kickoff returns. Both have looked a little vulnerable when it comes to covering punts with A&M really struggling at times, allowing over 15 yards per return. Rodrigo Blankenship has been really good for in his final season, hitting 19 of 22 attempts. The Aggies’ Seth Small has missed five times in 20 tries.

A perhaps overlooked part of the field position game is third down conversion success.  Against FBS opposition, that’s pretty much a wash for these two.  Georgia’s offense is not quite as good as TAMU’s in that regard, while defensively, it’s the opposite story.

All in all, I wouldn’t expect a lot in the way of style points tomorrow.

4 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

Offense on a soggy Saturday

Tomorrow’s weather forecast for Athens, GA:

Screenshot_2019-11-22 Dark Sky - Saturday, Nov 23rd, 2019 - Arch St, Athens-Clarke County, GA

Screenshot_2019-11-22 Dark Sky - Saturday, Nov 23rd, 2019 - Arch St, Athens-Clarke County, GA(1)

Essentially, it’s a slightly milder version of Kentucky.  You remember Kentucky, right?  More importantly, you think Kirby remembers Kentucky, right?

Fortunately, the stats favor Kirby’s mindset.

Georgia’s offensive line vs. Texas A&M’s box: Georgia has had a tough time running the ball of late but it has also gone up against some really good defenses. Texas A&M has struggled against the run this season, especially in the conference. The Aggies are allowing almost five yards per carry to SEC teams and they’ve surrendered more than 150 yards four times in six games. They’ve allowed over 225 yards twice, to Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

We all know that UGA wants to run the football and this seems like an exploitable matchup. It’s going to be a familiar look for the Bulldogs because TAMU is going to pack the box and do everything it can to win on first and second down. The Bulldogs averaged 4.5 yards per carry against Auburn when the Tigers brought the extra man down into the box and it’ll need similar success this week.

On the other side of the ball, I don’t think it’s any big secret that Smart wants to duplicate what worked against Auburn — make TAMU’s offense one-dimensional and put the load on Kellen Mond’s shoulders on a rainy day.  In the games when Mond has thrown 30+ times, his passer ratings are 107.44, 134.17, 148.52 (against Arkansas, the only game in that group above his average PR), 125.65 and 126.86 and the Aggies have a losing record.

In conference play, here’s what the two teams yards per rush average on offense and defense are:

  • Georgia offense:  5.02 (5th)
  • Texas A&M offense:  4.69 (6th)
  • Georgia defense:  3.08 (1st)
  • Texas A&M defense:  4.95 (10th)

Auburn basically ditched its traditional run-oriented attack last week because Malzahn doubted his team could move the ball on the ground against the Dawgs defense.  (He was right about that, by the way.)  Does Jimbo take a similar tack in the rain?

Georgia stuck with the run against a formidable Auburn defensive front.  Against SEC opponents, the Tigers give up about a yard-and-a-half less per rush than do the Aggies, so I don’t see Smart being any less committed to the ground game than the week before, especially considering the weather conditions.

20 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics

#BoycottGameDay?

Man, first I thought people were getting worked over what’s been a mediocre, tired show, something I haven’t bothered to watch for years, and decided to stick it to Mickey.  Good show!

Then I found out it’s just some whiny Ohio State fans.

At his first-ever headgear pick on College GameDay, Coach Lee Corso pulled on Brutus the Buckeye’s mascot head and correctly picked the Ohio State Buckeyes to beat the Penn State Nittany Lions. That was 1996, and since then, Ohio State University has hosted ESPN’s pregame show 18 times. On November 23, 2019, OSU hosts for the 19th time, which is the most all-time and five more than Alabama.

With that resume, you’d think Buckeye fans would be excited for Rece Davis, OSU alum Kirk Herbstreit and the gang to set up shop in Columbus, right? Apparently, a lot of fans hate the idea of ESPN and the network’s “SEC bias” coming to their town, and some are planning a full-on boycott of the upcoming show.

Get a life, snowflakes.

28 Comments

Filed under ESPN Is The Devil, General Idiocy

The art of the narrative

Shot.

Chaser.

Screenshot_2019-11-22 cfbstats com - 2019 Texas A M Aggies Rushing Offense Split Stats(1)

Those last four games PAWWWLLL!!! cites were against teams with a collective 16-26 record.  The Aggies close against two teams that are 19-1, combined.

Probably won’t matter, though, amirite?

4 Comments

Filed under SEC Football