Offense on a soggy Saturday

Tomorrow’s weather forecast for Athens, GA:

Screenshot_2019-11-22 Dark Sky - Saturday, Nov 23rd, 2019 - Arch St, Athens-Clarke County, GA

Screenshot_2019-11-22 Dark Sky - Saturday, Nov 23rd, 2019 - Arch St, Athens-Clarke County, GA(1)

Essentially, it’s a slightly milder version of Kentucky.  You remember Kentucky, right?  More importantly, you think Kirby remembers Kentucky, right?

Fortunately, the stats favor Kirby’s mindset.

Georgia’s offensive line vs. Texas A&M’s box: Georgia has had a tough time running the ball of late but it has also gone up against some really good defenses. Texas A&M has struggled against the run this season, especially in the conference. The Aggies are allowing almost five yards per carry to SEC teams and they’ve surrendered more than 150 yards four times in six games. They’ve allowed over 225 yards twice, to Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

We all know that UGA wants to run the football and this seems like an exploitable matchup. It’s going to be a familiar look for the Bulldogs because TAMU is going to pack the box and do everything it can to win on first and second down. The Bulldogs averaged 4.5 yards per carry against Auburn when the Tigers brought the extra man down into the box and it’ll need similar success this week.

On the other side of the ball, I don’t think it’s any big secret that Smart wants to duplicate what worked against Auburn — make TAMU’s offense one-dimensional and put the load on Kellen Mond’s shoulders on a rainy day.  In the games when Mond has thrown 30+ times, his passer ratings are 107.44, 134.17, 148.52 (against Arkansas, the only game in that group above his average PR), 125.65 and 126.86 and the Aggies have a losing record.

In conference play, here’s what the two teams yards per rush average on offense and defense are:

  • Georgia offense:  5.02 (5th)
  • Texas A&M offense:  4.69 (6th)
  • Georgia defense:  3.08 (1st)
  • Texas A&M defense:  4.95 (10th)

Auburn basically ditched its traditional run-oriented attack last week because Malzahn doubted his team could move the ball on the ground against the Dawgs defense.  (He was right about that, by the way.)  Does Jimbo take a similar tack in the rain?

Georgia stuck with the run against a formidable Auburn defensive front.  Against SEC opponents, the Tigers give up about a yard-and-a-half less per rush than do the Aggies, so I don’t see Smart being any less committed to the ground game than the week before, especially considering the weather conditions.

20 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics

20 responses to “Offense on a soggy Saturday

  1. hossdawg

    Hey Bluto, what weather app is that from?

    Like

  2. Uglydawg

    I suspect Jimbo will have a fast paced, quick throw (slants, flats, hooks) for a ton of short yardage, move the chains type of attack. In the rain, that can be challenging. But if he can get our backs playing up and close, he’ll feel like he can hit enough, and live off PI calls, to make drives.
    He’ll also be risking turnovers. When the ball is in the air, it’s anybody’s to claim.
    Mond will take advantage of a slippery field with his feet. Hard for heavy weights to change direction on pass rush when the field is wet.
    Kirby will run it up the gut with emphasis on squeezing the wet ball.
    That word “Toss” in “Toss Sweep” may be a risk Kirby won’t take.
    I look for another nail-biting, defensive struggle.

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    • Cojones

      Dooley had to prepare for FU play in a rainstorm. His plan included tennis shoes and everyone running towards their target in mincing steps. Rain was ponding on the J’ville field as runners made splashing steps and the slippin’ & slidin’ began.

      On offense, Kirby threw short passes (he was the worst passing QB in the SEC) that were easily handled by receivers, the FU D came sliding by and we would begin long runs from anywhere on the field. On defense, our players would get contact and leverage to stop them in their spinning tracks. I thought the score was around 55-0 (or close thereof) and it was our largest margin of victory, like forever. In the worst CFB rainstorm forever.

      You are correct about Mond being able to push the running envelope on us in this game.

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      • Gaskilldawg

        I got your Kirby Moore reference, but the rainy WLOCP in which we bear UF was 1968. Kirby Moore would have been in law school at that time. Mike Cavan was the 1968 starter and bless his heart he wasn’t much of a passer but he got good results through the air because of smart schemes and top notch talent around him.
        You are right, an excellent staff can coach around weather issues.

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        • Gurkha Dawg

          My favorite Dawg team of all time. Undefeated in the regular season. If they hadn’t got so drunk in the French Quarter they would have crushed Arkansas. Scott, Stanfill, etc. That was a great team.

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        • Russ

          What are you saying, that it’s possible to actually scheme a decent passing attack? And in the rain, to boot? What sorcery is this?

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  3. Macallanlover

    More worried about the loss of home field atmosphere than that amount of rain falling over that period of time. Hardly tropical storm levels, especially with the diminished wind and associated gusts. But it clearly brings factors into play that can “level the field” when you have one team with more talent than another. Riskier because of the weather conditions? Yes, team needs to be very focused; we were far more talented than SC, and dominated the game but saw the effort could not overcome a 4-0 turnover deficit. May be sloppy and ugly, but we should prevail. Get a W with no injuries and move on to Atlanta, too late for style points anyway.

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  4. TMCDAWG

    Come on Dawg fans don’t let a little wetness keep you from going. This is our biggest game to date we need you in the stands. Last home game of the year!!

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  5. TXBaller

    11 can’t throw the wet ball — Kirby knows it, 11 knows it & you know it. So what is the game plan armchair OC’s??? Saturday shaping up to be an ugly SC type game.

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  6. “Oh, you think you’re better than me”…”Manball, Manball, Manball”…(in the tradition of Mendelbaums)

    Liked by 1 person

    • Haha. Well done! Now every time I use the term manball, which is waaay too often, I will now say it with the Mandelbaum cadence. BTW, what a great episode. Lloyd was hilarious as Izzy M. “Time to take it up a notch”

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  7. WHB209

    Cojones: In 1966 I saw Kirby Moore and Steve Greer get in a fight, which took place in a 10×14 room at the old athletic dorm and they were both so quick that neither landed a punch. It looked like two cats running around the walls. Everyone was laughing, including Steve and Kirby. So maybe Kirby could not throw a ball and Steve, as a defensive lineman, weighted all of 210 lbs. They were both All-SEC players, this quickness allowed Kirby to not have to throw the ball.., Steve’s quickness help make the defense one of the best in college football that year. Sorry, this did not have anything to do with a passing game, It is just a great, true story that I do not have many opportunities to tell. This is one of those opportunities and I had to tell it… ( I guess you had to be there to see the humor and the great athleticism)….

    Liked by 1 person