Man, listening to the Alabama fan base whine, “but the advanced stats say” all offseason is gonna be awesome.
Man, listening to the Alabama fan base whine, “but the advanced stats say” all offseason is gonna be awesome.
Filed under Alabama
“And Georgia fans, don’t be turds. Enjoy this. Soak it up. It’s awesome. If you don’t win this year, it’s still not a failure. It’s a heck of a run. Back-to-back in the Playoff era hasn’t been done. So, to ask for a third I feel like it’s gluttonous. I feel like it’s not OK. But we’ll be in the mix.”-- David Pollack, On3.com, 5/9/23
Stats really ARE for losers!
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No, you have to say it like a Bama fan!
“Stats are for loosers! We just ain’t played no defence, Pawwwlll!”
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I looked at Roll Tide Roll last night. Several Tiders posted that the committee would rank Alabama over UGA if LSU wins because it beat South Carolina and we didn’t. Of course we beat Auburn and it didn’t but that didn’t matter
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The thought is that the Sugar might take Bama over Georgia, nothing to do with final rankings. More the turd Georgia laid last year in New Orleans might depress turnout/eyeballs.
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If we aren’t in the playoff, I would rather go to the Orange Bowl where we haven’t been since 1960 over the dump that is the Superdome and New Orleans.
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Drago’s for the win in NOLA…but it will be Oranges if we lose to LSU..
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Same. Give me the Orange. I don’t mind having to beat UVA twice in a row.
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They really want a OU + Hurts vs Bama matchup if they can get it. Only downside is that would mean playing UVA twice in a row (in the OB to end this season, and Atlanta to open next season.)
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Bama D is soft…..
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Charmin soft……
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Advanced stats don’t factor injuries. Two starting DL and a starting QB averaging a TD pass every 8 throws for a career might tilt those measures a tad.
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Finebaum was already hedging this outcome by saying Gus will still be on the hot seat if Barn beats Bama just because Bama didn’t have Tua
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But Bama did have Tua…they had Tua many people on the field LOL
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Bama tears are delicious. Whining about the refs as if officiating ineptitude didn’t hand them a natty in 2017 against us.
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^^^ this all day ^^^
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Well, if that’s the case, we really beat South Carolina, didn’t we? So we’re undefeated? So Bama would still be behind us… nice.
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If they’re going to play the postgame win expectancy game, they might want to reconsider their stance on that South Carolina game.
Advanced stats are great for understanding what happened and for prognosticating what will happen. They’re terrible for rating teams after the fact because FPI, success rate, etc aren’t the goal of the game. They’re just means to an end.
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FTMFs
I NEVER pull for the East Alabama Reform School at Auburn!
Having said that, I’m ecstatic that Alabama lost.
They shouldn’t have even sniffed a playoff spot with their schedule.
The Gumps need to pay a stiff price for their scheduling ineptitude!!
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Will be interested to see what kind of effort they have at the Sugar Bowl
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And how many draft eligible players sit out. If 3 WRs and Harris are getting ready for the NFL, I predict Mac Jones looks less good, even vs OU’s defense.
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It will definitely be interesting as a preview for our trip to T-town next fall.
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Oh Alabama wants to point to advanced statistics, You know who was solidly in the top 4 in S&P last year? Georgia. Pretty sure S&P would have expected us to win the seccg last year too considering we out gained Bama, got more first downs, and won turnover margin but the only stat that matters is the scoreboard.
Here’s the world’s smallest violin for the only program to get not one but two national championship chances despite not even winning their division.
Also while I’m taking shots from the peanut gallery maybe Billy C should back test his predictive model because where I sit it doesn’t really seem to predict any more accurately than say the spread. The Florida and Notre Dame games where advanced statistics predicted Georgia running the ball at will and Georgia failing to do so at all come quickly to mind.
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Predictive models aren’t intended to tell you what will happen. They’re intended to tell you what would most likely happen if a game was played over and over and over and over again. Sometimes the model would nail it, sometimes the model would be pretty far off. But there’s a cluster within the center of a normal distribution that is the most likely scenario. But given the small sample sizes, there is a lot of error in these things. Advanced statistics can be very meaningful, and have more predictive power than basic statistics like total yardage (hello, Paul Johnson!), but you can’t expect them to tell you which way an oblong ball is going to bounce. There is plenty of error both in the model (some variables in any model aren’t accounted for) and the game (injuries, out-of-character performance (good or bad), poor coaching decisions, etc.) that make it very possible the game will play out differently.
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The predictably unpredictable nature of college football is a feature, not a bug. Embrace the journey 🙂
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