Your 12.4.19 Playpen

Here’s the trailer for Daniel Craig’s last hurrah as James Bond.

Seems like a good time to rank your Bonds, your Bond girls and your Bond movies.  Also, whom would you like to see as the next Bond?

Have at it in the comments.

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Listen to the man

If you think Georgia’s offense is about to drop a whole bunch of “who saw that coming?” on LSU Saturday, maybe you should hear what Kirby Smart’s saying first.

“You can’t change who you are completely in a week,” Smart said on Tuesday night. “Certainly we’ve got different groupings, different packages, different use of guys.”

Georgia’s personnel dictates its philosophy.

“We’ve got a lot of big guys,” Smart said. “We’ve got tight ends, backs, receivers, just not as many as we’ve normally had, but I don’t think there’s going to be a major wholesale change in a week.”

The No. 4-ranked Bulldogs (11-1) have been winning with a formula that largely consists of dominant defense and an efficient offense that most often refuses to beat itself.

“The No. 1 thing that indicates success is, don’t turn the ball over, and (two,) get explosive plays,” Smart said. “We’ve been good at one and we’ve been just okay at the other.”

Jake Fromm’s Job One is the same thing it’s been since the South Carolina game:  don’t turn the freakin’ ball over.  If the explosive plays come, they’ll come.

Just don’t expect Coley to reinvent the wheel this week.  Schematically, what we’ve seen is what we’re gonna get.

Cold shower time

My Gawd, Bill Connelly’s advanced box score for the Georgia-Georgia Tech game is sexually arousing.

Outside of turnover margin, the game was a complete wasteland for the Jackets.  Just about every conceivable break went Tech’s way in the second quarter, and it still finished with a 28% success rate.  And a 0% success rate in the first quarter!

Hubba hubba.

The trouble with ‘Bama

So, as I’ve already mentioned, the selection committee served up a whole bunch of “oh, crap” to Nick Saban last night, dropping the Tide seven spots in the rankings after its loss to Auburn.

Here’s the committee’s rationale:

The playoff committee’s thinking on dropping Alabama to No. 12. pic.twitter.com/fEFuTwjp6u

— Michael Casagrande (@ByCasagrande) December 4, 2019

I get that, even if I’m not completely sold on it.  I also suspect that Tua’s season ending injury played into the drop as well.  Still, behind teams like Florida and Wisconsin?  Eh, doubtful either of those two would take ‘Bama.  Not that it matters; the really big deal here is that the selection committee has likely locked Alabama out of a NY6 bowl.  Tell me you saw that coming.

I’m not saying that because I care.  But a weakened Alabama team is playing havoc with everyone (and their computers) who ranks college football teams.  Check out the Massey Composite to get a sense of what I’m talking about.  Alabama is ranked anywhere from third to twenty fifth.  That’s a helluva range.

The consequences of this intrigue me, even if I’m someone not close to ready to buy into the “dynasty is over” talk.  For one thing, consider what it took for ‘Bama to find itself in its current state.

It’s amazing to think of what it took for Bama to finally miss the CFP.

* Run of front7 injuries
* LSU suddenly has amazing O
* worst 2 min of Saban tenure
* Tua breaks hip
* 3-5 unlikely FG events
* 100yd pick six off player’s back
* hilarious/deadly ill. participation penalty

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) December 1, 2019

Not sure you can count on something like that replicating itself annually.

On the other hand, in the world of college football, the first thing that has to happen for a powerhouse program to slide is a perception that the program is not quite the same anymore.  It’s a subjective sport and doubt is a powerful tool.  I’m not certain we’re quite there yet, but I’m also not certain we’re not seeing the first cracks in the Saban wall, either.

Next year, especially if Tua takes off, is going to be the most interesting year of Saban’s Alabama tenure, in my humble opinion.  I don’t have a clue from here how it’s gonna play out, but I’ll be watching.

In the meantime, it’s shaping up to be a real winter of discontent for Tahd Nation.

Musical palate cleanser, a pox upon the media edition

Came across this historical note on Twitter…

I think it’s important to remember that @DebbieGibson did a cover of The Soft Boys “I Wanna Destroy You” with the Circle Jerks. I don’t want this lost to history. This was awesome and it’s why I’m here on Twitter. To remind you things like this happened. pic.twitter.com/w9uK4F8jHx

— Jake Fogelnest (@jakefogelnest) December 3, 2019

That is… something.  It inspired me to post the original, which is simply great.  Robyn Hitchcock, man.

Check, or checkmate?

Those of you who don’t want to hear about stats — hayull, man, college football is all about which team wants it more, amirite? — can skip this post.  The rest of you ought to take a look at Max Olson’s latest on stop rate ($$).

Particularly as it relates to a couple of teams you care about this week:

One point we’ve mentioned in this space before that feels worth reiterating: LSU is definitely not playing bad defense. Do not be fooled by the yards it allows (35th in FBS in total defense), and don’t even fret too much about the number of explosive plays it’s given up (57th in 20-plus yard plays allowed). Because the truth is, Dave Aranda has this talented group playing efficiently. The Tigers rank 17th in stop rate at 74.8 percent, and they’re getting off the field in three plays or less on more than 40 percent of drives.

The more fascinating matchup to watch in Atlanta, though, will be Georgia’s defense trying to stop the unstoppable LSU offense. The Bulldogs haven’t given up more than 20 points in a game this season. They haven’t allowed 300 passing yards or three passing TDs in any game, either. They’ve forced the fourth-most punts in the FBS. Kirby Smart is going to have answers for LSU, and it’s going to make for one heck of a chess match.

For comparison’s sake, at 85.6%, Georgia is second in stop rate and, at around the same percentage as LSU, 14th in three-and-out rate.  It is going to make for one helluva chess match Saturday.

I’m Nick Saban, and I approved this message.

Tua, pondering his immediate future, tells Herbstreit, “You’ve got to change and be thinking as a businessman. You’ve got to make business decisions.”

At least he doesn’t have to make a business decision about missing the bowl game.

Offense? So easy, even Georgia can do it.

Gawd bless Jake Fromm, who just can’t quit his “oh, so close” narrative.

“We go against our defense when we go good-on-good periods,” Fromm continued. “Our defense is one of the best, I believe the best in the nation. They probably won’t like this, but we kind of give it to them sometimes.”

That might be the most perplexing part of the season’s output so far. The Bulldogs have shown they can move the ball during the week against the best defense in the SEC.

That’s what Fromm continues to look toward that breakthrough Saturday.

“So it’s like, if we can do it against them, we can do it against anybody,” Fromm said. “So I think it’s just a matter of us showing up and just doing it on Saturday and doing it repetitively and going out and straining for all four quarters.”

If that’s such a breeze, you’d think they’d have already done it.  Either that, or we’re about to witness the greatest sandbagging in SEC history.

“The guy just can’t keep his trap shut.”

If we refer to the Florida-Tennessee match as a meteor game, what should we call the Finebaum-Swinney dust up?

SECCG motivation

Any of you who think LSU is coming to Atlanta comfortable in the knowledge that, win or lose, the Tigers are a lock for the CFP and thus maybe play a little relaxed, need to disabuse yourself of that notion.  Sure, LSU will be in no matter what, but there is still something pretty significant left for it to play for.

In some years, the top spot may not matter — in fact, it may be worth avoiding since the No. 1 seed has yet to win the title in the five playoffs since the current format began. But this season, the spot may well carry a significant advantage — avoiding the defending champion, Clemson, which has won 27 consecutive games, in the semifinals on Dec. 28.

Could mopping up the selection committee’s number four team Saturday — a team that has yet to give up more than 20 points in a game all season — propel LSU past Ohio State into the top spot, thus avoiding Clemson in the semi-finals?  If you’re LSU, you’d at least like for the committee to be in the position of having to consider that.

Georgia is going to get the Tigers’ best shot.