Check, or checkmate?

Those of you who don’t want to hear about stats — hayull, man, college football is all about which team wants it more, amirite? — can skip this post.  The rest of you ought to take a look at Max Olson’s latest on stop rate ($$).

Particularly as it relates to a couple of teams you care about this week:

One point we’ve mentioned in this space before that feels worth reiterating: LSU is definitely not playing bad defense. Do not be fooled by the yards it allows (35th in FBS in total defense), and don’t even fret too much about the number of explosive plays it’s given up (57th in 20-plus yard plays allowed). Because the truth is, Dave Aranda has this talented group playing efficiently. The Tigers rank 17th in stop rate at 74.8 percent, and they’re getting off the field in three plays or less on more than 40 percent of drives.

The more fascinating matchup to watch in Atlanta, though, will be Georgia’s defense trying to stop the unstoppable LSU offense. The Bulldogs haven’t given up more than 20 points in a game this season. They haven’t allowed 300 passing yards or three passing TDs in any game, either. They’ve forced the fourth-most punts in the FBS. Kirby Smart is going to have answers for LSU, and it’s going to make for one heck of a chess match.

For comparison’s sake, at 85.6%, Georgia is second in stop rate and, at around the same percentage as LSU, 14th in three-and-out rate.  It is going to make for one helluva chess match Saturday.


Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

15 responses to “Check, or checkmate?

  1. Dawg1

    With Pickens and Cager, we had a chance to keep the chains moving. If Coley can use Cook effectively downfield on LBs, not just swing passes my wife sees coming, then it comes down to Robertson and/ or Blaylock being a threat early to get that other guy out of the box.

    Robertson is the key Saturday imo.


  2. UGA '97

    …and still our D has only given up 1 Rushing TD all year to a non RB. The even bigger chess match will be Red Zone D. Both Offenses can get into the red zone, but scoring TDs on us from inside the 20 should be much tougher for LSU. One other item- LSU punt return coverage is ranked 128th out of 130. Seems like Blaylock (minus the fumble of course) has continued to break longer Punt returns lately so hopefully we should see better field position there.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. 1) Extend a couple more drives and give the defense a break. Eat some clock.
    3) Play defense just like we have all season.

    We do these we’ll be fine.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. bcdawg97

    Is it too early to start throwing up? I was convinced yesterday we had a chance. Reading today’s posts, it might take a miracle. Thanks Senator 😉

    Those of you that believe, good on ya. Send some of that good juju my way.


  5. Biggus Rickus

    Don’t fret too much about the areas where LSU falls short on defense, because they’re really good, you guys! Georgia’s offense is also really great if you ignore the areas where they aren’t.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. 2675miller

    Wonder if Gus would let Kirby borrow his rabbit’s foot?


  7. Bigshit

    We suck! We’ll never win anything!

    Liked by 1 person


    We must stop their running back #22. That guy scares the hell out of me.


  9. Gurkha Dawg

    LSU is going to struggle to score 20 on Saturday. I don’t need stats to tell me that our D is going to frustrate the hell out of Burrow. 24-17 Dogs.