David Ching points out that, at least in one aspect, this has been an unusual season.
Since the CFP launched in 2014, the selection committee’s weekly rankings have been known for two things: their volatility and their remarkably unreliable projection of the eventual playoff participants.
In 26 sets of weekly rankings released between the 2014 and 2018 seasons, only once did the committee’s top four include each of the teams that would participate in that season’s playoffs. Late in the 2016 season, the committee listed Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Washington – the eventual semifinalists – as its top four in both the second-to-last set of rankings and on Selection Sunday.
But that’s it. That’s the only time.
Otherwise, the top of the rankings changed in some way nearly every week. Just six times in 26 opportunities between 2014 and 2018 did the top four remain exactly the same from one week to the next. And just eight times did the same top four teams carry over from any one week to the next, regardless of their order.
In addition, the committee never had the same top four for more than two consecutive weeks in any previous season. So when the identical four teams – Ohio State, LSU, Clemson and Georgia – comprised the committee’s top four for the last month straight, we entered into uncharted territory.
That means Georgia wins tomorrow, amirite? I mean, if the 2019 CFP race is all about lack of drama, there’s no team exemplifying that better than the Dawgs.