Daily Archives: December 7, 2019
In the face of a debacle like that, gallows humor is all I got.
Okay, it’s on now.
I’m still convinced the SECCG comes down to the play on the line of scrimmage. If Georgia’s o-line can create space for its backs to run and the d-line can hold its own without requiring additional help, we’ll have ourselves a game. If not…
Put it this way: if the score stays in the twenties, I like Georgia’s chances, but if it climbs into the thirties, definitely not so much.
I think the intangibles favor Georgia, to an extent. Having your back against the wall can be an excellent motivator, but if the game starts slipping away, it won’t help. Same thing with the crowd, which by most accounts I’ve seen should be favoring the local boys. But this is a battle tested LSU squad that’s already gone in to Baton Rouge and scored a big win, so I’m not sure all that counts for too much.
The one intangible I do like is that this team has been in this position before and played well. The one I don’t like is the tendency to fade in the fourth quarter. Smart needs to get over that hump today.
One other big deal — Georgia simply cannot turn the ball over against LSU. It’s going to be hard enough keeping up with that dynamic offense; giving away a couple of possessions will be deadly for its chances. There’s nothing more I’d like to be able to say after today that in games when Fromm didn’t throw a pick, Georgia went 12 for 12.
Have at it in the comments. See y’all on the other side.
Georgia and LSU played three common opponents down the stretch — Florida, Auburn and Texas A&M. Secstatcat breaks down the stats from those three games. It’s not as pretty as we’d like, to put it mildly.
Looking at the defenses first, LSU’s mostly outperformed Georgia’s in these three games. But the Dawgs have the edge in perhaps the two most important stats – albeit barely. UGA allowed a lower TD Rate and surrendered less explosive plays. Again, explosive plays consist of runs of 10+ yards and passes of 20+. Scoring and preventing points, winning the turnover battle, and outperforming your opponent in explosive plays are the big three areas that often determine the outcome of ballgames. Despite the fact LSU was better down-to-down, generating Havoc plays, and forcing three-and-outs, Georgia had the preferable numbers against those three opponents. Still when everything is taken into account, it’s hard not to give LSU the hat tip. Though UGA was better at curbing scoring and big plays than the Tigers, their edges are slim.
Offensively, it’s no contest. LSU was far an away the better offensive team against Florida, Auburn, and TAMU. Both Throwing and Rushing, the Bayou Bengals outdid the Bulldogs down-to-down, were more potent scoring, had less negative plays, a drastically smaller Three-and-Out Rate, and were considerably more explosive. Even though the Havoc Rates were similar, LSU still had a better clip than UGA’s. Remember, all three of these defenses finished within the conference’s top 6 units against SEC offenses. Georgia was clearly affectedly negatively and LSU appeared to not bat an eye.
Will this play out based on conventional wisdom presented or will the old adage come to fruition? Offenses win games, but defenses win championships.
He makes a good point in his conclusion about turnovers — the way this game turns into a rout is if the Dawgs go minus-2 in turnover margin. Jake needs to keep that interception streak intact, big time.
Briefly contemplated this after I saw the results from last night…
… but, nah, that’s not gonna happen. Baylor would be a one-loss conference champ. There ain’t enough SEC bias in the world for the selection committee to take a two-loss Georgia over that.
Brooks Tilley says that one of the keys to a Georgia win today would be for Georgia to take the ball to start the game if it wins the toss.
Limit LSU to 10 possessions– this starts with taking the ball to start the game in hopes that you minimize first half possessions.
I’m gonna have to respectfully disagree on that one. If I have my druthers, I want my best unit on the field to start. Georgia hasn’t allowed an opponent to score on its opening series all season (Auburn came the closest, with a missed FG) and I’d rather take my chances with that.
Also, one less possession in the first half means one more possession in the second with George Pickens.
You know what my biggest fear is today? It’s not that the Dawgs get blown out this afternoon (not saying that’s not within the realm of possibility, just that I don’t worry it’s likely).
Nah, it’s that the Georgia we want to see shows up today for three quarters, takes a 10-point lead into the last fifteen minutes, only to do its patented fourth quarter disappearing act and gets beat on a late Burrow touchdown pass, say, 31-27.
This would be a really good time for Kirby to up his late game management approach.