“Both of these teams have their flaws and both teams play hard.”

Georgia and LSU played three common opponents down the stretch — Florida, Auburn and Texas A&M.  Secstatcat breaks down the stats from those three games.  It’s not as pretty as we’d like, to put it mildly.

Looking at the defenses first, LSU’s mostly outperformed Georgia’s in these three games. But the Dawgs have the edge in perhaps the two most important stats – albeit barely. UGA allowed a lower TD Rate and surrendered less explosive plays. Again, explosive plays consist of runs of 10+ yards and passes of 20+. Scoring and preventing points, winning the turnover battle, and outperforming your opponent in explosive plays are the big three areas that often determine the outcome of ballgames. Despite the fact LSU was better down-to-down, generating Havoc plays, and forcing three-and-outs, Georgia had the preferable numbers against those three opponents. Still when everything is taken into account, it’s hard not to give LSU the hat tip. Though UGA was better at curbing scoring and big plays than the Tigers, their edges are slim.

Offensively, it’s no contest. LSU was far an away the better offensive team against Florida, Auburn, and TAMU. Both Throwing and Rushing, the Bayou Bengals outdid the Bulldogs down-to-down, were more potent scoring, had less negative plays, a drastically smaller Three-and-Out Rate, and were considerably more explosive. Even though the Havoc Rates were similar, LSU still had a better clip than UGA’s. Remember, all three of these defenses finished within the conference’s top 6 units against SEC offenses. Georgia was clearly affectedly negatively and LSU appeared to not bat an eye.

Will this play out based on conventional wisdom presented or will the old adage come to fruition? Offenses win games, but defenses win championships.

He makes a good point in his conclusion about turnovers — the way this game turns into a rout is if the Dawgs go minus-2 in turnover margin.  Jake needs to keep that interception streak intact, big time.

29 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

29 responses to ““Both of these teams have their flaws and both teams play hard.”

  1. Derek

    What did common opponent STATS! say about last year’s matchup?

    Meaningless navel gazing.

    The crazy thing about this game? Literally anything could happen.

    We could get run.

    We could run through them.

    We could see overtime.

    This game is going to be about personnel matchups and no one knows who will win those until we kick off.

    If Swift is full go, I like our chances. If not….

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    • It’s a fucking blog, man. Of course there’s navel gazing. Comes with the territory.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Greg

      Concur, this game comes down to matchups, scheme and philosophy. Again, it comes down to what is in the trenches imo. We are stronger on both sides of the ball.

      Throw in the home crowd and a must win for us…@ a not so much win for LSU. I really like our chances to come out on top….provided no turnovers & players stay healthy.

      Stats don’t mean shat about shat in this one…..but ALWAYS a good talking point.

      GO DAWGS!!

      Liked by 1 person

  2. 69Dawg

    I think the SC game has caused Jake to become too cautious. He simply holds the ball too long. He needs to play looser and quicker.

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  3. ASEF

    Especially the AM comparison, which really tempts recency bias. I cannot unsee Jimbo stubbornly trying to RTDB and then Mond moving chains once he just started throwing every down.

    But games like this all come down to match ups, and Georgia has some bullets in that respect. Enough to craft a W.

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  4. Biggen

    It’s all tea leave reading at this point. Who knows. Baker was supposed to wipe the floor with us two years ago and we remember how that went.

    D travels. I like our chances.

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  5. Dawgflan

    I believe we can ugly up the game enough to keep it within 2 TDs. I also believe we need turnovers and favorable bounces to get it closer or win.

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  6. TN Dawg

    We have better athletes. We are deeper. We have more skill. We are stronger. We have better ST.

    This one is entirely about coaching.

    If CKS does his job making sure the team is ready from the opening kick, plays disciplined assignment football, and has prepped the defense and added a few wrinkles on offense, we win by two scores and manball out the final 5 minutes taking a knee at their 10 yard line as time expires.

    FTMeauxtherfeauxckers.

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    • Macallanlover

      I would dispute the “we have better athletes” but it is subjective, so who knows? I don’t accept HS rankings as the gospel, prefer to see what they do on the field against comparable athletes in college. I do think we might be deeper, but I feel LSU has as many, or more, quality athletes as UGA in their starting 22. And the only thing that matter is how you use them; LSU has done a much better job of letting their guys play.

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  7. willypmd

    I know the A&M game counts for LSU, but I’d still be interested in the comparison without that game.

    I’m hoping that was a revenge game and A&M was flat after losing to us, I know it could also signify LSU rounding into form.

    I guess we’ll have an answer in a few hours

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    • Muttley

      A&M was also traveling to play at #2 a week after a long trip to play a very physical, bruising game at #4, at night, in the rain.

      Not taking anything at all from LSU, who’s the clear favorite today, and rightly so, but that A&M team was not a control element across those two Saturdays.

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      • Dawg1

        Right, and the other 2 comparables they played at home and UGA was no the road/neutral field. Big Differences in those scenarios, likely 7 pts for and against difference. You think Auburn would have manged those 2 scoring drives without their rabid fan base?

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  8. Scorpio Jones, III

    In a moment of undoubted self-delusion…..

    #NEXTYEARINJERUSALEMBABY

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  9. FlyingPeakDawg

    I think I’d like for us to win this game. Yes…that would be nice.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. D as in Dawg

    I like Ed. That will make losing easier. However, let’s not lose. Then I’ll like everybody except iDawg. Lol! JK. I’d like him, too. Go Dawgs!!

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  11. Redhotchilidawg

    Please God can we just glue Simmons on the bench for the rest of his career. Give him his degree but my God he cannot keep screwing us.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. D as in Dawg

    Just not good enough. Dropped passes. Bad throws. Its the same. I believe we are close. But there are some missing links we do not have to be next level this year. Receivers and Fromm, for whatever reason, are not good enough this year.

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  13. D as in Dawg

    Burrow and the receivers are greater than ours. That simple. We all knew that coming in. Kind of other worldly how good they are. First downs for us feel like it takes everything we have. For them, its like tying their shoes. Goal now is to try and keep this from becoming an embarrassment. I’m a reality monkey. Fromm cant do it unless we can run the ball. And it looks like that ain’t happening today.

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  14. D as in Dawg

    Burrow and the receivers are greater than our equivalents. Much greater. Period. Game. Set. Match. Another year of coming up short. Reality Monkey here. Just keep running that ball up the middle, Kirby. Let me know how that goes.

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  15. Ole Dawg

    I’m probably grasping at straws but are we wearing the wrong freakin’ shoes. Our guys seem to be slipping and sliding all over the place and lsu doesn’t seem to be having the same problem. I’m not asking as an excuse, we’re still getting our a$$e$ kicked, but the slipping and sliding is puzzling.

    They should probably have a running clock in the fourth 1/4.

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  16. Tlkdawg

    Well that was pretty dreadful to watch. That is a huge step backwards for the program. My hope is that Kirby has realized all season that the offense is a sh#tshow and has just been trying to be positive publicly. If he truly believes this style will win a championship, we will never see one here under his leadership.

    Like