“That means, 2020 is the year for Florida to retake the East.”

Hoo, boy, this one’s good.

As always, the Georgia game is in Jacksonville. Georgia may come into this game with two losses already, as they will face Alabama in Tuscaloosa in mid-September and then Auburn in early October. If Newman struggles like I think he may, Florida may be seeing Carson Beck in his first or second start of the year.

He manages to write an entire piece without mentioning Georgia’s defense, which is certainly one way to argue the gap’s been eliminated.  We’ll see how that works in real life.

(h/t)

*************************************************************************

UPDATE:  Here’s Jake Rowe’s projected 2020 depth chart for the offense.  The spots that make me most nervous are tight end, which has to be rebuilt from the ground up (yeah, I know, but work with me here) and left tackle, because of how good Thomas was.

*************************************************************************

UPDATE #2:  Evidently, this guy’s take on elite recruiting has changed dramatically since mid-season.

But the reality is that injuries are such a glaring issue precisely because there isn’t much depth.

This offseason, I looked at the likelihood that a player got drafted based on his recruiting ranking. The likelihood of a 5-star player getting drafted was way higher than even the best 4-star player, indicating a much higher level of production.

Florida’s roster contains one 5-star (Brenton Cox, not eligible), 38 4-stars and 35 3-stars. Georgia’s roster boasts 14 5-stars, 45 4-stars and 25 3-stars. It’s a talent mismatch.

The problem is you can’t use that as an excuse. When I wrote about recruiting extensively last offseason, the counter narrative was that Mullen had to “show it on the field” to get the elite recruits to come to Gainesville. He then had an excellent first season that was followed up with a recruiting class that ranked very similar to his first, particularly when you factor in non-qualifiers.

There is no doubt that recruiting is trending up compared to the McElwain regime. But it’s not really where it needs to be to compete with Georgia and Alabama on a regular basis.

The 2020 class is right where the 2019 class was last season: fighting for position somewhere between 7th and 12th. If you’re relying on on-field performance to provide a significant bump, this loss certainly doesn’t help.

A reminder – Florida is seventh in the 247Sports Composite.

74 Comments

Filed under Gators, Gators...

74 responses to ““That means, 2020 is the year for Florida to retake the East.”

    • Russ

      There was so much stupidity in that article I couldn’t finish it. So Florida has maybe, almost, well not really caught up on talent? Because Fields, Cox and Mays left? By my count we still have 14 five stars on roster with the 3 we have coming in. I see 2-3 on Florida’s roster. Yes, we will replace a lot of the offense, but at many places with players that played a lot (OL, WR, RB). QB is an unknown, which is why it was a great get for Kirby to sign Newman.

      And as inconsistent as our offense was this year, it can only get better next year. As for the defense, it will be a monster from the outset.

      #FTMF indeed.

      Liked by 3 people

      • CB

        Who are the 5 stars on Florida’s roster? The running joke over the past couple of years is that they don’t have any.

        Like

        • The Dawg abides

          They all come in through the portal after flaming out somewhere else, because Mullen certainly can’t land any as recruits.
          They got Brenton Cox from us and just landed Lorenzo Lingard, who couldn’t even crack the rotation in a putrid Miami offense.

          Like

    • RangerRuss

      Absolutely gotdam right!
      Fuck those motherfuckers.
      I have the Scotch.

      Liked by 3 people

    • Dawg1

      Please note:

      The scoreboard has the absolutely angelic, music to one’s ears, 100% wholesome, all-American, totally grammatically correct – Georgia vs Florida and not the incorrect, unethical, clearly immoral, nails on a chalk board- Florida vs. Georgia!

      Liked by 3 people

  1. Auburn at home in October? I see nothing to worry about there since they are losing the best player on each side of the ball. They couldn’t beat UGA last year at home with the JH voodoo, and UGA’s defense will be even better. It’s not like UGA’s offense carried the day in that game either. The East will come down to Jacksonville, as it should, and Florida hasn’t figured out that problem yet.

    Liked by 5 people

  2. Tronan

    This article’s title should be “What Is the Sound of One Hand Fapping?”.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. Biggus Rickus

    Do any of these Florida people note the losses off their roster they’ll be dealing with next year or the fact that they haven’t recruited at an especially high level? Georgia’s offense would be hard pressed to be any worse than it was down the stretch this season, so these kinds of pieces just seem like wishful thinking more than anything. “If everything breaks just right, Florida can have a special season.” They’re an 8-4 team, probably, with a schedule that may allow them to reach 10-2.

    Liked by 2 people

    • My favorite part of the whole thing is how he manages to argue that the transfer portal makes being an elite recruiter “irrelevant”, and then turns around and completely brushes off the Newman transfer.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Biggus Rickus

        And I have no idea if he’ll more than decent at Georgia, but comparing his production on a team with no talent against the best teams on their schedule doesn’t seem all that useful.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Russ

        I couldn’t follow his 5* math, either. By my count we’re at 14 (with maybe a 15th) and I see 2 on their roster (Cox and a RB from Miami, both via transfers). I guess he had a quota to meet for words or something.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Lutz Dawg

        Since 3rd and Grantham is going to be so great next year, who exactly will be stepping to make all the plays? they’re losing their best two pass rushers and best cover corner. the Gators had a very good defense last year and will take a huge step back next year. they haven’t recruited anyone that will make that big impact.

        Like

  4. Derek

    You know who I didn’t think if when I watched Trask play?

    Watson and Newton.

    I think I’ll stop there before it gets even dumber.

    Liked by 2 people

  5. The other Doug

    Mullen needs to find a running game. He has a solid QB, but Trask isn’t a runner like he wants. OL is average at best and their RBs are waiting for someone to step up.

    Like

    • Will (the other one)

      Going to be interested in seeing how solid Trask is without all his top WRs this season. As we saw with Fromm, that can make a bit of a difference.

      Like

      • The other Doug

        Also once teams have an entire off season to grand the tape on Trask. Mullen did a great job of adjusting the scheme but it’s very likely there aren’t more adjustments because it’s not the offense he wants to run.

        Like

  6. HirsuteDawg

    The primitive reptile brain just isn’t capable of comprehending what is going to happen to them in Jacksonville,

    Liked by 2 people

  7. Your Daily Gator is delusional.

    They truly do sound like we did in the 1990s.

    Liked by 2 people

  8. JD

    “That’s a big deal for a lot of reasons. But the biggest reason is that teams that haven’t recruited at a top-5 level have only been able to win titles one other way: elite QB play.
    Auburn did it with Cam Newton. Clemson did it with Deshaun Watson.
    Trask gives Florida a chance to do it too in 2020.”

    Dude thinks that Kyle Trask is in the same class as Cam & Deshaun!
    L.O.L.!

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Hogbody Spradlin

    Well, I clicked on it.

    Like

  10. ASEF

    Kirby just seems to know how to short-circuit Mullen’s offense. I think last year’s 17 was a career high for Dan against Kirby, both the DC and the HC.

    Florida fans will figure that out at some point.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Bright Idea

    It’s all about the QB position, Mullen’s genius and Georgia losing two before J’ville so the Gators can back in. I’m not sure they’ll beat Tennessee.

    Like

  12. Texas Dawg

    As of right now, FU is tied with UGA at the top of the SEC East for 2020 (along with every other team in the East). Let them enjoy their few months of fake parity before they get their asses handed to them in J’ville.

    Like

  13. Kirel13

    We can expect 8 months of different variations of this from rivals:
    1. Georgia’s bad offense is going to be worse because Fromm, Swift and the O-line are gone.
    2. Jamie Newman is over his head because stats.
    3. Kirby has missed his window.
    4. Florida is favorite to win the east due to Georgia roster turnover and easier schedule.

    How I feel as a Georgia fan:
    1. The offense was out of sync all 2019. I am hopeful that the coaches who have more invested in it than I do will get it back on track.
    2. Fromm is a DGD and went 3-0 against Florida. He chose to move on so next man up. If Newman is steady, Georgia treads water where we are. If rivals are correct about him, then I expect super conservative let the defense try to win it version 2.0. But if he is better than expected, watch out.
    3. Kirby is 44 years old. His window isn’t closing for a long time.
    4. Let Florida have the pressure of preseason expectations. Let them obsess over Jacksonville all off season. Been there done that (it doesn’t help.)

    Liked by 7 people

  14. gastr1

    If for nothing else, I thank Kirby Smart for reducing FU to asinine points of view like this. HAH.

    Liked by 4 people

  15. Doug

    Cognitive dissonance, he haz it. Jake Fromm was bad, but losing him will be huge. Dan Mullen may not be a great recruiter, but Kirby being a great recruiter doesn’t matter, because of the transfer portal. Except in the case of that Wake Forest kid, he sucks. And you can’t win the division with a bad QB, just look at Jake Fromm!…oh wait.

    I also love the commenter who thinks 2020 is going to be Grantham’s redemption year, because he’s actually a great DC…as long as your quarterback can’t read defenses. Cool cool. Guess we should hand Florida the East Division trophy, why even bother playing the games at this point?

    Liked by 6 people

  16. duronimo

    The Florida writer fails to understand that the game is not just between the players. Before the Dawgs take the field in Jacksonville, Kirby has already defeated Dan in recruiting, diminishing their prospects of winning.

    Liked by 1 person

  17. DawgByte

    It’s a brain dead article written by a jorts wearing chomper head. That doesn’t erase stats and I think Georgia fans in their exuberance to recruit a DT QB are over looking Newman’s last 5 games of the ’19 season, number of INT’s and how he performed against better competition. It’s also worth noting Jamie Newman was a 3* QB coming out of HS, so UGA fans should temper their dreams of a 2020 Natty. We have a lot of holes to fill on offense, so cautious optimism is the way to go.

    Liked by 1 person

    • W Cobb Dawg

      Newman being a 3-star is meaningless with Kirby. See David Marshall, Monty Rice, Jordan Davis, Kindley, Stokes, Grant, Herrien, etc. Kirby is excellent when evaluating talent. If he’s taking a shot on a 3-star you can be sure the kid has talent. I could also argue Kirby has had a lot of success with transfers: Nizialek, JR Reed, Cager, etc.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Gaskilldawg

      Dawg Byte, you miss ths point of our being pleased with getting Newman. No one is comparing Newman with Trevof Larence because Lawrence was not available in the transfer pool. The satisfaction comes from getting the best available graduate transfer QB. Are you arguing that some other graduate QB in the portal would have been better? If so, state your case.

      The other factor that pleases me and others is that Newman gives us reason to anticipate a baseline of performance for 2020. We have reason to anticipate that our QB play will not be below a certain level. Without him or some other transfer we have no reference for how well Bennett, of Mathus, or Beck or Priestly will be as the starter. All those guys may be better than Newman and will have a chance to prove it, but we know that QB will not be a liability for us next season. It may not be All SEC, but if won’t be at Vandy level, either.

      Liked by 3 people

    • Incredibly, on this Title Game broadcast it was revealed that Burrow was a 2* recruit. Something to consider…

      Like

  18. So – beating all the teams on your schedule that you should beat while losing to the teams that are more talented makes one an elite coach these days? Hoo boy – Gator fans really have become the same way we were over the last 10 years of the Richt era, haven’t they?

    Liked by 2 people

  19. Mayor

    Someone explain to me why we accommodated Auburn (again!) by moving them up in our schedule so they wouldn’t have to play UGA and Bama back to back. Now Georgia has to play Auburn and Bama almost back to back early. This could be a season killer. McGarity!!!?

    Liked by 1 person

    • Dawg1

      Didn’t help them at all actually. Instead of a bye before UGA lately, they play 5 straight. Then they get UMAss instead of UGA in November, with LSU the very week before Alabama instead of a cupcake. I’d say Auburn ended up on the short end of that whole deal, IMO. I say keep it that way.

      Liked by 1 person

  20. Bigshot

    All the fans thinking Newman is going to be the savior need to think again. There are even some who are delusional enough to think he will be better than Fromm.

    Like

  21. spottieottie

    For some reason I feel better about 2020 after looking at that depth chart. I feel confident in all three of our returning running backs, the receiving corps outside of Pickens doesn’t seem as thin as I initially thought, and there’s still some real good talent on that offensive line. Will it be some kind of unstoppable force? No, but it wasn’t that in 2019 and we still made an SEC title game behind an elite defense.

    Liked by 2 people

  22. Alan

    I can live with Florida always being the champions of the off-season.

    Liked by 1 person

  23. Whiskey Dawg

    Danny Boy the elite coach and poor old Georgia stuck with that Kirby Smart guy and a terrible transfer QB that only a bunch of other programs wanted. Now that is some fantasy football right there! Move over Tolkien, make room for Will Miles.

    Liked by 1 person

  24. I mean, the entire offense is really being rebuilt. 4 OL, QB, TE, RB and OL coach. I have no doubt that one offensive coach leaving and another staying caused a couple of those players to leave early.

    The defense carried 2019 because the offense had training wheels on it. Yeah, I’m slightly concerned about next season. Georgia is still easily the most talented program to

    Like

  25. LT definitely concerns me more than any position.

    Like

  26. Paul

    Can we really even list tight ends on our roster? As rarely as we throw to them shouldn’t we just put another offensive lineman out there and use the tackle eligible set every now and then?

    Like

    • Biggus Rickus

      TEs caught about 20% of the completions in 2016 and 18% in 2018. LSU’s TEs caught about 14% of their completions this year. Even at Florida, whose leading receiver was a tight end, it was only 19%. 2017 still saw 12% of completions go to tight ends, and Nauta was arguably underutilized, though the offense was effective. Last year the tight ends stunk, and their percentage fell accordingly, to 9%. In the grand scheme of things, Georgia throws to tight ends about as often as any other team. They just tend to throw fewer passes overall. If there was one thing I could change about the Georgia fanbase, it would be that they shut the fuck up about tight ends.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Paul

        We’ve had a number of talented tight ends, Nauta included, who were criminally underutilized in my opinion. But hey, don’t sugar coat it, tell me how you really feel. Trix are for kids. Blogs are for espousing opinions. It’s why we’re all here.

        Like

    • I’m REALLY hoping that our offensive staff saw the KC tight end putting in work last night.

      Like

  27. DAwg

    Tre McKitty from FSU will most likely be a dawg and that gives us a 50 catch TE to add to the roster. This should help.

    Liked by 1 person

  28. Godawg

    ” The spots that make me most nervous are tight end,…”
    I know he’ll just be a freshman and they say he’s raw, but what a get in 5-star Darnell Washington. 6’8″, 261 with an 87″ wingspan (Labron is 80″). Now that’s a serious manchild.

    Liked by 1 person

  29. I have a question. Last year they lost a lot of players from their signing day. When will that talent gap show up? Would it not happen this year or next?

    Like

  30. I feel dumber for just having read that article.

    Liked by 3 people

  31. siskey

    Every August from about 1992 until 2011, I would come up with all the ways that this year would be different than the year(s) before and the Dawgs would finally get over the Florida hump. During this time I placed my optimism on the previous year’s result (97, 2004, 2007) or on a returning QB (Quincy in 99-00), Greene (2002-04), or Murray (11). If that were not enough I would take into account results that Florida had prior to the Cocktail party. My hopes and wishes seldom panned out as I would have liked as Georgia only won 3 times during this time. This guy is doing much of the same except that I think that Florida (minus the Spurrier vs. Goff era) is in a worse position than we were during my 20 years on angst. FTMF and Go Dawgs!

    Liked by 2 people

  32. Texas Dawg

    I would expect our offense to be different from last year but as effective if not better. Defense? They were Hell on Wheels last year and only expect them to be better than last year. With a NC level defense and even a status quo to marginally improved offense, the ‘turds should leave Jacksonville feeling just like they have for the last 3 year.

    Like

  33. practicaldawg

    Doesn’t UF lose Greenard, Zuniga, and every big name on defense. And didn’t like half of Mullen’s 2019 4* class never show up on campus?

    Other than a soft schedule, I don’t see the basis for the 2020 UF outside of the “Mullen is always coach of the year” media circus tent.

    Liked by 1 person

  34. RC

    I can’t for the life of me understand why those clowns not only welcome the preseason hype, pressure, and expectations- misplaced though they may be- but invite them. They can have them. That, IMO, is the best and most refreshing thing this team has going for it heading into 2020- it will go in with the lowest expectations since 2017, and I love that.

    The tone-deafness, myopia, and smugness are truly going cheap in gator land. October 31st can’t get here soon enough. FTMF indeed.

    Like

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