A factoid, and an analysis

Just throwing a couple of things out here…

Returning experience on the offensive line doesn’t have nearly the statistical impact that we expect. But with more data in the bank — and a new set of tweaks to S&P+ that I’ve been unveiling at Football Study Hall — we can see there’s a little correlation.

The higher the number, the more likely returning production in these areas is to coincide with strong offense:

  • Receiving yards correlation: 0.324
  • Passing yards correlation: 0.234
  • Rushing yards correlation: 0.168
  • Offensive line starts correlation: 0.153

With more data, the offensive line correlations have begun to grow stronger, which makes sense, but the conclusion remains: continuity in the passing game matters a hell of a lot, and continuity in the run game doesn’t have as strong an impact.

No, in and of itself, I don’t think Pickens’ return marks a return to greatness for Georgia’s passing game.  But it sure as hell beats where they were going into last season.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

9 responses to “A factoid, and an analysis

  1. Former Fan

    Makes that 2013 season all the more remarkable given all the injuries. Also, how amazing was it in the Goff years when UGA’s best wideout played QB.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. MGW

    Certainly can’t hurt breaking in a new QB. No figuring out which of 3-5 roughly comparable receivers will be your go to guy all offseason. Just, “this is your #1. Either you’re going to him, or you can count on the D paying close attention to him so it’ll be easier to throw elsewhere.” Gotta be easier to focus on just learning the O that way.


    • Gaskilldawg

      Also can tell Newman. “Target Pickens because his catches can get you to the NFL. Target that other guy and he won’t get open or he will drop the pass and you won’t be drafted.” Really clear instruction.


  3. reality check here

    The biggest surprise and disappointment to me in the receiving corps has been Demetrius Robertson. He thrived in the Cal offense his freshman year which to me validated his recruiting ranking. Obviously SEC defenses are better but not enough to explain a dropoff of that magnitude.

    I have hope that he will reassert himself with a system that may play better to his strengths

    Liked by 1 person

    • Dawgflan

      Agree. He was my Exhibit A of why there was something fundamentally flawed about our past scheme. It gave me great pleasure to type the word “past” just now.


  4. McNease

    Question: does a transfer count as returning or not? Jamie Newman isn’t a new starter, so he’s returning to play QB. Just not for UGA. I could argue this both ways.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Will (the other one)

      I’d say if he winds up the starter, it at least lessens the hit. OU had slightly less passing yds after Murray, but still great offensive numbers overall (and an obvious potential #1 WR coming back.)


  5. Shawn R

    But…tbis is ONLY because of Lawrence Cagers injury…or it would be Wash-Rinse-Repeat 😒