Stars in their eyes

Josh Hancher sent up a flare my way about his post today on recruiting ratings.  It’s something of a variation on what Bud Elliott does with his blue-chip ratio metric.

The first thing to notice is that, once again, ratings matter.

So, I went back and scraped off the rankings for the top-1,100 recruits through the 2015 class and had got the rankings for this upcoming NFL Draft Class. The top 30, no surprise, is loaded. 11 of the 30 were 5-stars and Bryce Hall, CB from UVA, was the only 2-star in the top 30.

In fact, using the CBStop-150 NFL Draft Rankings, 110 out of 150 were ranked in the Top-1,100 coming out of high school. Those 110 players had an average 247 Composite Rating of .917 (4-Star). 73 of the top-150 had a rating of greater than .88 (high 3-Star) and 19 were .98 or higher (5-Star).

You can marvel all you want at the number of two-stars and three-stars who make NFL rosters and start, but they come out of a much larger pot than do the four- and five-stars who succeed.  As a college coach, your odds for success are simply much better with a highly ranked recruit, which is a big reason why they pay Kirby Smart the big bucks.

Second, while a program having a high average rating isn’t a guarantee it’ll play for a national title, a program without a high average rating isn’t making the show in the first place.

So, where does Georgia fit in all that?  Glad you asked.

Screenshot_2020-02-02 DawgStats National Signing Day… before – Bulldawg Illustrated

None too shabby.  In other words, the Jimmies and Joes are already there.  The Xs and Os are in need of a little tweaking.  Better that than the opposite, methinks.

19 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Recruiting

19 responses to “Stars in their eyes

  1. josh hancher

    Working on attrition after graduation and NFL draftees. What is interesting is, that taking the 15 rated players off the UGA roster – the average actually increases (.003).

    I’ll add the incoming players and look at career stats that will need to be replaced.

    Like for example

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  2. SlobberKnocker

    Surprising to see UT that high, and that close to FU.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Greg

      not here, they’ve been building for a while. A good QB and who knows how they will end up. Always a threat to UGA, seen too many through the years.

      But FTMF!!

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  3. McTyre

    Agreed. One area in which Kirby is underrated by many is his ability to spot diamonds in the rough. Not only do these 2-3-stars typically require less courting throughout the recruitment process, but they often are less entitled than their elite counterparts. Chemistry matters and identifying leadership potential – either vocal or Chubb-like by-example varieties – has been huge. While some elite recruits with personality issues may be worth the risk, Kirby thankfully has the program in a place where we don’t have to take on that risk. Kirby can opt for the 4-5-star valedictorian. Win-win.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Castleberry

    Average is nice, but look at that # of players rated, too. So, the Gators have a nice average but only 60 rated? What does that mean for the rest of their roster??

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    • Russ

      Well, I read something from one of their fans saying that they were replacing 4 star players with 4.5 star players. So OBVIOUSLY they are catching up to Kirby’s house of cards. It’s just that the rating system is too stupid to account for it.

      #FTMF

      Liked by 1 person

  5. duronimo

    This pretty well establishes the validity of the star system. Kirby is very skilled at appraising athletes on the hoof. That’s why he picks the right 4 & 5 stars. When he offers a 3, it based on that ability. He simply knows the player is better than the system says. But looking at these statistics, they don’t miss much.

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  6. practicaldawg

    Completely agree on how it’s better to have the Jimmies and Joes in place. I think that is far harder than finding a good schemer and play caller. Kirby has shown an ability to load the roster every year. Only 1-2 other programs in the nation have come close. If we are all but guaranteed annual top 2 recruiting classes, we’re always just a coaching tweak away from winning it all. Few teams are built to compete in the post season like we are.

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  7. Anonymous

    I would like to remind everyone that the recruiting services don’t actually rate the recruits based on an actual evaluation of their skills. The star ratings follow the offers from college coaches. If you have dozens of offers including all of the “blue-bloods” across the country, you get 5 stars. If you have dozens of offers from most of the “blue-bloods” in your region, you get 4 stars. If you have offers from several P5 programs in your region, you get 3 stars. The recruit ranking services work by proxy because college coaches are good at evaluating talent.

    Liked by 1 person

    • ASEF

      Recruiting services will go back and evaluate someone if the player’s offer list seems out of whack with the rating. And ratings are somewhat in flux all the way through all-star games, given the limited data points on some of these guys.

      But the star system is not categorized by # of offers or quality of offers. At all.

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      • Anonymous

        But the star system is not categorized by # of offers or quality of offers. At all.

        Oh, it isn’t categorized that way, but go review recruits and their ranking. Watch Todd Gurley’s Senior year film and then look at his offer list. He wasn’t a well known recruit as he didn’t go to a lot of camps. That explains why a lot of major colleges didn’t offer him. Now tell me how no recruiting service ranked him as a 5-star if they were actually ranking players based on their ability to evaluate talent. The reason is that if the “analysts” actually had any talent evaluating recruits, they would make a good living working for college programs. They don’t. They rank the recruits based off of their offers and their “buzz”. It just isn’t formally categorized that way.

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  8. Russ….allow me counter your proposal
    #FTMF#FTMF#FTMF

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Mayor

    I’d like to know how other national powers are doing—Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma, etc.—not just the SEC.

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  10. junkyardawg41

    A highly decorated chef at a Michelin rated restaurant said it best. If you have the highest quality ingredients, you can cook exceptional meals. It is also possible to turn the high quality ingredients into a disaster. That said, skill can make fair ingredients good but it can never make it exceptional.
    I think you have to have high quality ingredients aka players to start with. I think Coley overcooked the Waygu. I think Monken’s skill is going to make the Veal taste delicious.

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  11. Yeah, Kirby definitely gets it but what has impressed me the most about him is his ability to get a couple transfers who have had big impacts each season. That and turning some 3 stars into stars.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. And I really like the offensive recruiting this year, especially at WR. Several different body types and abilities. I expect we’ll see a couple of these faster guys be the NFL version of Mecole Hardman- lined up all over. Weapons.

    Liked by 1 person