Imagine a disgruntled five-star freshman dissatisfied with his dorm accommodations leaving after a season for a softer bed. Imagine two of the biggest dates on the college football calendar becoming the end of spring practice and end of fall camp. That’s when a potential glut of quarterbacks (or wide receivers or running backs or defensive backs) would hit the market after losing position battles.
Basically, imagine the transfer portal times 10.
It’s all on the table. It’s also a potential mess. The Big Ten originally proposed one-time transfer legislation last fall. On Monday, the ACC publicly supported the concept. Momentum seems to be pushing the issue toward adoption. The three remaining Power Five conferences (Big 12, SEC, Pac-12) were expected to discuss the proposal at their respective spring meetings.
“That’s going to happen, man,” a former member of the NCAA Council, who did not want to be identified, said. “I’ve been hearing murmurs. It seems unstoppable now.”
Imagine being so devoid of courage that you feel you have to offer a quote like that anonymously. But I digress.
Fearmongering. It’s what those in charge like to do every time a vested interest appears threatened.
Hell, P5 schools are making more money than ever.
Anyway, back to the one-time transfer rule. Obviously, it’s a threat to coaches’ control over players, and, to be fair, Dodd is right to note there are related issues concerning things like APR and roster management for schools who face a sudden drain of their numbers that will have to be addressed.
That all being said, given the numbers generated by the transfer portal, the fears Dodd cites are likely overblown. Per Max Olson ($$),
The transfer portal database for 2019-20 lists 170 scholarship players who have matriculated to their new schools. The actual number is greater than that — some compliance staffers haven’t logged all their new enrollees yet — but the 170-player sample is still useful for showing where players are ending up:
- 43 players (25 percent) enrolled at Power 5 programs
- 31 players (18 percent) enrolled at Group of 5 programs
- 21 players (12 percent) enrolled at FBS schools as walk-ons
- 75 players (44 percent) enrolled at FCS or Division II programs
Based on those initial numbers, you’re seeing one in four transfers fortunate enough to end up at Power 5 schools. More importantly: There are nearly the same number of players ending up on scholarship with FBS teams (74) as there are players going down to FCS or lower levels (75).
You know what’ll happen when the one-time transfer rule goes into effect? There will be even more players out there looking for the same number of slots. The reality is there are only so many primo spots out there in a given year and the one-time transfer isn’t gong to fundamentally alter that math.
Nobody likes being inconvenienced, true. But inconvenience isn’t the end of the world.