Today, in stats don’t lie

If you watched Georgia football last season, I don’t think this chart (h/t DawgStats) will come as any big surprise to you.

Screenshot_2020-03-12 Seth Walder on Twitter QBR vs zone coverage (x) by QBR vs man coverage (y) in college football last s[...](1)

The underlying reasons for that differential, of course, are what really matter.  Was Fromm simply that uncomfortable throwing into man coverage?  Were Georgia’s receivers having that much trouble with man to man?  Was Coley simply unable to dial up schemes and routes against man coverage to give his players a better chance?

Probably a combination of all three, but the bigger issue now is what Todd Monken does about that — at least the part that involves the last two questions.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!, Strategery And Mechanics

9 responses to “Today, in stats don’t lie

  1. The answer to your questions is yes.

    On Fromm, I can’t imagine that teams were playing pure zone the first half of the season. Something happened after the Tennessee game that changed Fromm’s performance. If he can’t throw efficiently against man coverage, he won’t ever throw a meaningful pass in the NFL.

    On the receivers, I certainly would have liked to have seen how this would have changed with a healthy Cager and an non-knucklehead JJ Holloman. Those guys with a maturing Pickens and Blaylock would have been hell on wheels.

    On the scheme, I certainly have not seen the playbook, but it certainly seemed we didn’t do much slant or dig kind of stuff behind linebackers and in front of safeties. Definitely the tight ends seemed to disappear for games at a time.


    • By the way, look at those numbers for Fech.


    • Macallanlover

      Strong point about what opportunities Cager and Holloman could have created on the field at the same time, damned shame. We might really have been close to being a legit threat last season given how well the defense played.

      The answer to the Senator’s questions are what he suggested, a combination, especially the middle question about our ability to get receivers open. But there is no concern about Monken dealing with the last question. Coley is gone, and he should have virtually total control over dealing with how to open up the offense. I just don’t believe Kirby is dumb enough to die on the sword of stubborn thinking. I accept that he prefers an offense operating on the conservative side of center but he has surely learned his lesson after Bama 1, and last year’s disaster of a constipated offense. I think we see Monken given the reigns, within reason, to let the talent on offense roll. Otherwise, why push Coley out the door? The problem is how quickly can the new parts come together, especially with the chances spring practice will be limited/cancelled?


  2. Can’t help but notice the future Heisman from Gatorville was pretty decent in man but very mediocre against zone. Since he seemed to have been getting a lot of help from his receivers, how do we project Florida’s offense if much of that production at that position has graduated/gone pro?


  3. Uglydawg

    I guess the reason for JF’s low numbers is multi-faceted.
    But mostly, I think Jake just lost his mojo.
    Somehow and for whatever reason, his confidence waned. If I had to point to a time and place, I’d venture to say it happened in the South Carolina game.
    He was missing that someone or something that kept him on track and full of confidence. If so, I hope he regains that mojo and goes on to have a great NFL career.
    A DGD that deserves our love!

    Liked by 1 person

  4. rchris

    Could anyone tell me where Wake is on this chart? I have old eyeballs.