It bears repeating that there’s something to the star rankings the recruiting services use. Here’s how last night’s first round of the NFL draft broke down, based on recruiting stars:
Before you go all “hey, there were more three-star players picked than five-star players!” on me, remember the odds.
The NCAA said in 2013 there were 310,000-some seniors playing football. Here’s how long their odds are to reach various recruiting ratings, using class of 2018 data from Rivals, if we settle on 300,000 football-playing seniors as a fair estimate.
- 30 five-stars, or 0.01 percent of the class
- 380 four-stars, or 0.13 percent of the class
- 1,328 three-stars, or 0.44 percent of the class
- 1,859 two-stars, or 0.62 percent of the class
- 296,403 unrated, or 98.88 percent of the class
There’s a reason we’re paying Kirby Smart the big bucks and it isn’t to extol five-star hearts.