The cream rises.

It bears repeating that there’s something to the star rankings the recruiting services use.  Here’s how last night’s first round of the NFL draft broke down, based on recruiting stars:

Before you go all “hey, there were more three-star players picked than five-star players!” on me, remember the odds.

The NCAA said in 2013 there were 310,000-some seniors playing football. Here’s how long their odds are to reach various recruiting ratings, using class of 2018 data from Rivals, if we settle on 300,000 football-playing seniors as a fair estimate.

  • 30 five-stars, or 0.01 percent of the class
  • 380 four-stars, or 0.13 percent of the class
  • 1,328 three-stars, or 0.44 percent of the class
  • 1,859 two-stars, or 0.62 percent of the class
  • 296,403 unrated, or 98.88 percent of the class

There’s a reason we’re paying Kirby Smart the big bucks and it isn’t to extol five-star hearts.


Filed under Recruiting, The NFL Is Your Friend.

4 responses to “The cream rises.

  1. RangerRuss

    It’s just anecdotal evidence based on a small sample but it seems that a state of GEORGIA 4 star performs vastly better than a left coast or yankee 5 star at the university level. Limited example is Fromm vs Eason, Thomas vs Wilson and Chubb vs Swift. I won’t deny my bias and it’s good that I’m not a potential talent evaluator for the Dawgs.


  2. Sojourning in Bama

    .8% of the ranked class are 5 stars. 10.5% are 4 stars. 4 stars outperformed their overall percentile by five times. 5 stars outperformed it 24x.


  3. Mayor

    Just curious…..who was the 2 star drafted in the first round?