The always astute Allen Kinney reiterates a point I blogged about earlier.
The spread really started to take root as a way for outmatched teams to overcome physical disadvantages in the trenches. The scarcest prospects in football are elite defensive linemen, specifically defensive tackles, and they tend to congregate at powerhouses.
Playing stacked teams on their terms with traditional personnel groupings and formations didn’t make sense for middle- and lower-tier programs. Spacing out players, leveraging advantageous one-on-one matchups and moving the action outside the tackle box helped level the playing field, metaphorically speaking.
Those days are over. The upper crust is now playing the same game as spread teams. The knock-on effects beyond offensive style are significant.
Instead of building their programs around the idea that they will see a “pro-style” offense every week, the Alabamas and Ohio States are organizing as though the spread is the norm. They are recruiting spread personnel and scheming to both run their own offense and to stop it. Consequently, a Texas Tech or a Northwestern no longer benefit from playing style the elites eschew.
The playing field has been leveled, just not in the way that the spread pioneers intended.
So, where do things go from here? In the absence of rules changes (hello, RPOs!), Allen suggests a little contrarianism might be in store for some programs.
More likely, teams on the lower rungs will look to revert back to manball-ish styles of play. A consensus is forming around the idea that the best path to defending the spread is flooding the field with hybrid defenders along the lines of the 3-3-3 scheme dreamed up by Iowa State defensive coordinator Jim Heacock. The trade-off: taking some size off the field.
That may create openings for underdogs to push around opponents using heavier personnel and downhill rushing attacks. At the very least, opposing defenses may be forced to abandon their base schemes and lineups to handle sets with two and three tight ends. For example, consider what Kansas State is doing now under Chris Klieman and how that played out versus OU in 2019.
Throwback styles won’t generate eye-popping statistics and impressive headlines. For overmatched teams that can’t afford to play sexy and hope to win, though, they may still be the way forward.
To which I can only say: eh, maybe. Allen is suggesting that for overmatched teams, not elite ones. With regard to the latter, I don’t think a slugging style of offense is going to succeed in this day and age without being coupled to a top-flight defense capable of slowing down spread offensive attacks. And even saying that, isn’t that what we had in Georgia last season? How well did that work out at crunch time?
You can tell me all you like that last season’s LSU offense was generationally exceptional. The problem with that take is that the Tigers didn’t finish first in yards per play last season. That would have been Oklahoma. And Alabama was tied with LSU in that metric.
You can also tell me that Georgia’s problem at the SECCG was an offense that saw it ypp production drop a full yard from 2018. Except Georgia dropped that SECCG, as well, to another dynamic Alabama offense.
I know I’m singing a different tune than the one I used to warble. The main reasons for that are alluded to in Allen’s post.
Everything about the football landscape is pushing college coaches toward the spread. It’s proliferating at the high school level, and 7-on-7 passing leagues are booming in the offseason. Prep quarterbacks are training year-round with passing gurus. Rules have tilted dramatically in favor of offenses. As such, the “blocking and tackling” of football are now spread skills and concepts.
Equally importantly on the college level: The rules are undeniably hospitable towards RPOs.
The undertow at this point is too strong, I believe, for a traditional ground and pound offense to maintain its footing. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think so.
I’d love to hear Kirby discuss this. Maybe we’ll hear more once we see how Georgia’s offense looks in 2020.