“How many blue chips do you need?”

Ian Boyd suggests it’s not so much a matter of signing as many four- and five-star recruits as you can that leads to program success as it is to signing four- and five-star recruits in just the right places.

You following the formula?

It’s the space force positions where you either need to be very good in your evaluations and development or else recruit at a high level. Offensive tackle, wide receiver, defensive end, and cornerback. The dominant Boise State teams had NFL players at those positions to bolster the hard-working Idahoans and 2-3 star Californians around them.

Those space force positions are the spots where you can’t hide if you aren’t an athlete. As the game advances further into now “pro-style” spread passing tactics those positions become even more important.

He’s not saying you can recruit a bunch of stiffs at the other positions and get by.  He’s saying that at the other positions there are other things to factor in when evaluating recruiting success.

Every roster needs to replenish its ranks with players that fit their system and development model, and each roster needs to be able to find athletes at those key positions where you can’t hide a non-athlete. The easiest way to evaluate that is whether or not they signed blue chips at those positions, although that method method has obvious shortcomings…

The recruiting rankings will tell you which team has the best chance to produce the greatest number of professional-caliber football players. But if you want to get a sense of which teams are going to win college football games you need to look deeper, or at least double check what positions those blue chippers play. As a two-decade, close observer of the Texas Longhorn football program I can tell you that in reality, “filling up on bread” means nabbing blue chips that won’t take you where you wanna go…

It’s a comforting analysis.  After all, who doesn’t want to believe in a world where there’s a place for “hard-working Idahoans and 2-3 star Californians” to help a football program win championships?  And I’d probably be willing to buy into it more if I weren’t a four-decade observer of the Georgia Bulldogs football program who’s seen the conference’s most talented programs generally win the league championships.  Outside of kickers, the number of two-star players Nick Saban has recruited to Tuscaloosa and signed… well, I don’t think I’d need an entire hand of fingers to count.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t a place for the three-star kid a great talent evaluator like Saban or Smart believes will fit well into what they’re doing.  But those guys aren’t the rule.