Here’s a good thought exercise for you guys. Check out what an eight-team college football playoff field, based on a combination of automatic bids and at large offers, would have looked like over the past four seasons…
I don't think this is true at all.
I think the list of non-deserving becomes quite clear with 8.
Here's the last 4 playoffs and what they look like: https://t.co/U9t0s8J1eW pic.twitter.com/8ZsRyDJ1xg
— Jacob Major (@JakeMajor25) May 19, 2020
… and tell me what’s improved by expansion. ‘Cause I’m not seeing it.
Filed under BCS/Playoffs
“... Shoot, why does anybody who’s ever won something do it again? Because it’s cool. So, let’s go do it again. Let’s see if we’ve got what it takes.” -- Stetson Bennett, The Athletic, 3/22/22
Get The Picture
I’d rather go back to the poll system of the old days, so I don’t believe I’d have much to add to this topic.
But I do think we should point out that whatever formula he’s using put Alabama at the 8 seed in 2017. I believe he’s right, generally, but don’t put a lot of stock in his projections of how things would’ve shaken out.
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And Alabama wasn’t in his 2019 field at all.
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I’ll take “What are TV profits?” for 200, Alex….
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Daily Double ….
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I have a problem with this person’s formula. The wild cards were automatically placed at the #7 and #8 seeds even when it was an undefeated Notre Dame in 2018. No way should a Group of 5 champion get a spot above a team that was likely a loser in a P5 championship game.
On the topic of 8 vs. 4, all that matters is whether Mickey is willing to stroke the check that will make the conferences say yes.
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Yes, with the massive financial hit the schools took from losing a share of the approximately $600,000,000 shortfall in NCAA men’s basketball tournament revenue the schools and conferences will be in a mood to expand the CFB playoff. Thd only question is price. The conferences will want the same broadcast revenues for the 1 vs 8, 2 vs 7, 3 vs 6, and 4 vs 5 games as they get for the semifinals. In other words, current payouts times 2.
Mickey knows that the projected ratings and ad revenue value for 1 vs 8, 2 vs 7, 3 vs 6 and 4 vs 5 is lower than the ratings and ad value for the current set up. That is the negotiating sticking point, not, concerns about interfering with exams or player health or anything else.
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As the chart shows, once those 2-3 teams are weeded out that are “non deserving” teams, you are back at 4 (yes, 5 is the correct answer)..having seen the game results from 17 – 18 – 19 seasons, the only gain is ca$h…getting exposed on national tv (trust me, the lsu ass whipping still visually hurts) does the universities/conferences no good…ucf, washington, memphis even nd, against 1 or 2 seed in those seasons…not a good look
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I’ve been saying the following for years now:
Any 8-team playoff system would necessarily mean that, in many years, a 3-loss team would be in the playoff.
That seals it for me. No 8-team playoff, please. Thanks.
And, no, it doesn’t matter to me that the 8-team system outlined above would have mean that UGA would have been in the mix each of the last two years. I wouldn’t have wanted to see them there. They didn’t deserve to be “competing for a national championship” in my mind.
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Makes no sense at all, cannot recall when a three loss team would be in an 8 team playoff. Typical scare tactic by those closing their mind to fit the opinion they already had. It is OK to just say I like no playoff, a two team playoff, or a 4 team playoff, no need to distort the discussion with BS.
I don’t know a person who would oppose an exclusion of any 3 loss team, or to excluding anyone outside the Top 12 in the final ranking before the playoff pairings for an 8 team playoff are announced. And those exclusions might mean a conference champion or the top rated Group of 5 team would lose their spot some years. Simply replace teams with the highest rated team, not otherwise qualified.
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Man, my reference to 3-loss teams being in a hypothetical CFP Top 8 are based on ACTUAL final CFP rankings. If the CFP simply took it’s top 8 and put them in a playoff these are the 3-loss teams which would have been included historically:
2019:
#8 Wisconsin (10-3)
2018:
none
2017:
#7 Auburn (10-3)
2016:
#8 Wisconsin (10-3)
2015:
none
2014:
none
Looks like 3 out of 6 years had a three-loss team in the top eight to me.
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So Georgia would have had:
the Justin fields bowl in 2019
aN immediate rematch against Alabama in 2018
to play ucf in 2017
No thanks to any of those.
8 teams will be awful, will further devalue the non playoff bowl games and will result in more lopsided playoff games that prove teams don’t belong
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The non playoff bowl games are worthless now. The expansion to 8 will kill the bowl system. Can you imagine how unmotivated a their and its fan base that lost its quarterfinal game is going to be for a truly meaningless NY6 bowl game?
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IMO, an 8-team playoff would include all the New Year Six bowl games. Some of them wouldn’t be played on New Year’s Day, tho.
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There’s no way people are going to travel for 3 weeks in a row. You aren’t going to have people from Georgia go to Glendale, Arizona one week and then to Pasadena the next. All of the scenarios I’ve seen for 8 teams will have the quarterfinal games on campus the week after the conference championship games.
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eethomaswfine, BINGO. Hell, the 2018 game in San Jose didn’t even have a full stadium. Who in the hell can pay for all these? In 2017 I opted for the Rose Bowl over the title game but couldn’t have afforded both. Made right choice. Can you imagine Miami….Pasadena….Indianapolis for anything other than the top donors?
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He then proceeds to list two alternative teams to the 7th and 8th seeds for last year.
Aside from the fact that his “system” auto-seeds teams, puts a loss threshold on group of 5 and indies, auto-bids champs without said loss limit, and limits conferences to two teams, I’ll say he did okay for a Dell engineer. In the real world where money changes hands, it’ll be the top 8 selected by a committee.
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Sorry, i love the 8 idea. 5 Power 5 champs. 1 from Group of 5. 2 wildcards.
Villanova (and David) occasionally win against Georgetown (and Goliath).
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I love the 8 idea also. But I think it should only include the best 8 teams, as determined by the selection committee.
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So a 3 loss conference champion get an automatic berth?
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Power 5 would in my book, one caveat, you have to be ranked in the Top 12 or so.
How many 3 loss champs have their been in the playoff years?
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I like it too, although I’m not for the Group of Five guarantee..first round on home stadiums would be a blast and a boom to the towns economy. Win/ Win.
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Should have been 8 from the get go.
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What’s improved by expansion?
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Mo playoff games…
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Basically with 8 teams in a money showdown what we would witness is a Steve Harvey beauty pageant where there would be no interest in most first round games expect for “dire strait” fans. You see what I did there.
The less TV I watch there is nothing live cause of the DVR cache. It’s appears though it’s more about the commercials than subject of content. A 30 minute show runs about 12-15 minutes and 4-15 minute quarters of NCCA football last 4-4-1/2 hours. At least at home in quarantine I can get up and leave, pause or turn it off.
The return of a NCCA football this fall is not what I have envisioned. The powers that be better keep a eye out on MLB cause if they don’t figure it out and still have a player/owner dispute about $$$. They are both gonna lose.
The virus is gonna be enough to keep throngs away but Mickey isn’t exactly sitting on a golden throne with it WWL of no live sports. Unless your a South Korea fan or have a bitch for sex dolls.
The traffic, no place to tailgate unless you pay, awful concessions, horrid restroom facilities that were made in the 60’s with corridors to deal with the same fan traffic. Seems like B-M should have figured this out before plans for the 600 level. The home schedule is pathetic and I could go on but I’ll cease.
Enough ranting for one day. 4 teams or 4+1 with 1 getting a bye.
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How would a five team playoff with the #1 seed getting a bye work?
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FCS has a 24 team playoff.
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That’s right and the regular season means nothing.
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What people want are more games between the best teams. If that means expanding the playoff, then great. If it is better schedules in season, great. If it means figuring out how to make bowl games compelling for both teams, great.
Just give me more games with stakes.
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I’m usually on your side, but I don’t have any issue with any of that outside of the guarantee for the G5 team. If I was the one seed and had to play anyone other than the G5 entry I’d be pretty upset.
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If someone can take a look at the current playoff history https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2019/5/22/history.aspx and tell me that going to 8 won’t have a huge number of blowouts in the 1 v 8, 2 v 7, 3 v6, then maybe I might consider an 8 team playoff.
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