David Wunderlich has an interesting take:
If the SEC has an underwhelming quarterback season in 2020, it’s not going to be due to a sharp decline in quality. It’s going to be because it was like 2019 but without the two headliners.
If you want to see what a sudden fall in SEC quarterbacking looks like, you’ll need to look at 2014.
Overall, quarterback play in the conference wasn’t any better in 2019 than it had been. It was just that the SEC’s two best quarterbacks were otherworldly. They’re both gone, so unless somebody steps us and shocks the hell out of the world (admittedly, like Burrow did), we’re due for some regression to the mean.
After all, this is what we’ve got to work with:
Besides, 2020 may not end up so bad. Trask has room to grow. Bama’s Mac Jones played very well against Auburn outside his two picks and absolutely lit up Michigan in the bowl. He’s no Tua, but he still has a couple of first round receivers to throw to. Costello has a high floor and will probably end up fine.
Some of the freshmen who, well, played like freshmen in 2019 will probably improve a fair bit. Bo Nix, Ryan Hilinski, John Rhys-Plumlee, and Matt Corral all qualify here. Newman has started for a year and won’t be a deer in the headlights. Guarantano and Mond, as seniors, will probably get at least a little better. And don’t forget about Kentucky’s Terry Wilson, who has real dual threat skills if he can get back to pre-injury form.
Will 2020 be 2013 all over again? Will the SEC’s passing attacks make you forget about the Big 12? Certainly not. But it won’t be 2014 again in terms of being a long fall from the prior year. Myles Brennan will be a downgrade from Burrow. Jones will be from Tua, though perhaps not as much.
I’m starting to lean towards Costello being the conference’s top quarterback this season — Leach has a good track record with quarterbacks coming in for one shot — but honestly, it looks like a crap shoot. Who you got?