“Florida is the biggest boom or bust team heading into the season.”

Let’s take a deeper dive to see why.

KYLE TRASK IS THE PRIME EXAMPLE OF WHY YOU SHOULD NEVER TRUST THE BOX SCORE

It’s pretty easy to fall in love with Florida quarterback Kyle Trask’s box score from his 2019 campaign — he was 13th in the FBS in completion percentage at 66.8%, 23rd in yards per attempt (8.3) and had a solid touchdown to interception ratio of 25 to seven. Yet he ranked 73rd of 103 qualifying FBS quarterbacks in PFF passing grade at 66.4 — this was also not even in the top half of the SEC. Trask posted a PFF grade above 70.0 in only two of his 10 starts this past year.

First off, I will say Trask displayed tremendous accuracy in his first real taste of collegiate action as a redshirt junior. As a matter of fact, he was up there as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the country. He finished the year tied for 11th in percentage of total passes being deemed accurate according to PFF’s ball-charting process and had one of the five lowest rates of passes that resulted in a quarterback-fault incompletion (i.e. overthrows, underthrows, ball behind receiver, etc.). Accuracy is king — it’s the most vital trait for a quarterback to lead a successful passing attack.

As good as Trask’s accuracy is, there is one thing that looms over his 2019 performance that doesn’t show up in the box score and gives us huge cause for concern for 2020. Trask was notably bad when it came to two important metrics PFF tracks: big-time throws (PFF’s highest-graded throws) and turnover-worthy plays (PFF’s lowest-graded throws and fumbles). Trask was one of only three quarterbacks to rank in the bottom 10 in both big-time throw and turnover-worthy play rate (along with Adrian Martinez of Nebraska and Quinten Dormady of Central Michigan).

The differential between his number of big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays is quite alarming…

Depends on your perspective, I guess.  Personally, I’m not too alarmed.

4 Comments

Filed under Gators, Gators..., Stats Geek!

4 responses to ““Florida is the biggest boom or bust team heading into the season.”

  1. willypmd

    Add in the turnover in UF’s receiving corps and I would worry about a potential regression season.

    I guess the optimistic gator fan would point to more of a running game, but after seeing what turnover in WR’s did to us last year, I’m betting on a tough offensive season for the gators

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  2. J-Dawg

    To all the Football Gods: Please let Nolan Smith be in his face on all passing downs.

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  3. CosimoMedici

    Trask is ok but the existential conundrum of any coach or player for Gators is that Kirby Smart bleeds Red and Black and was humiliated as a player by Spurrier and has not and will never forget it and will spend the rest of his natural life trying to kick the ever-loving crap out of them – it’s personal for our coach and it’s not going to stop…

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  4. HightowerDawg

    Especially when he’s running for his life.

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