The lucrative bigotry of low expectations

Looking at Mark Stoops’ situation at Kentucky, Andy Staples ($$) makes an interesting comparison with a coach we know.

… Let’s put it this way: Stoops could probably coach at Kentucky 15 more years, never win the SEC East and still could retire as a beloved steward of the program.

Meanwhile, Kirby Smart — a coach Aidan referenced as being secure — has won the past three SEC East titles, won the SEC in 2017 and came within a miracle pass of winning the national title that same season and people keep wondering if he can get it done in Athens. By the standard being applied to Stoops, Smart has gotten it done several times over.

But Smart is still trying to live up to expectations. Stoops has exceeded expectations despite winning 11 fewer games than Smart over the past three seasons. Yes, Smart makes more money. Stoops is scheduled to make $5 million this season, while Smart is scheduled to make $6.8 million. But who has the better job?

I know who has the easier one.  Nice work, if you can get it.


Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football

19 responses to “The lucrative bigotry of low expectations

  1. CB

    Which is easier? Kentucky might have lower expectations but it’s also harder to meet low expectations in Lexington. I guess you could argue that Stoops is safe as long as he keeps football decent and basketball is signing one and dones to keep the fans distracted.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. If Kentucky goes to bowl games every year, Stoops will have a statue in Lexington like Crean would have in Athens if he got us to the tournament consistently.

    Stoops has the easier job by a mile because of expectations.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

    We already know the relative expectations for Stoops to become a “better” coach than Kirby, as per the idiot punditry.

    He just needs to take UK to bowls in 8-straight years. That’s what Sideshow Dan the Clown did, and that’s the reason why Athlon and SDS and other morons use for why he’s the “better” coach than Kirby.

    So there you go.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Jim

    There aren’t but a very small handful of coaches that deserve the level of compensation even a middle of the road mediocre power 5 coach can expect.


  5. W Cobb Dawg

    “But Smart is still trying to live up to expectations.”

    With a 44-12 record, 3 division titles, one sec title, and a playoff appearance, Kirby has surpassed the expectations I had when he took the job. Did people really expect a first time HC to do more than that?? His best years are almost certainly ahead of him.

    Moving the goalposts, then saying he’s not meeting expectations, is pure bush league by Staples.

    Liked by 1 person

    • PTC DAWG

      I’m with you on this…

      Liked by 1 person

    • I certainly didn’t have these expectations of Kirby in 2016 especially after the Vandy debacle and absolutely blowing the Fech game in Athens. He has exceeded every expectation I’ve had since that day in November … still glad I wasn’t there and was at Disneyland with my family that Thanksgiving.

      I may not have made it out of Sanford that afternoon or probably would have run into a bridge support on the way home after hearing Dantzler’s infamous “throwaway season” remark.


    • SlobberKnocker

      Yeah, expectations can be a weird thing. I think most of our fan base was ready to move beyond the 10 wins a year, we’re always “pretty good” to being consistently very good, winning the division regularly, and winning the SEC somewhat regularly. These things then put you in contention for the MNC.

      I think Kirby has achieved that and it’s not fair to say winning the MNC is an expectation. Too many variables in my mind.


      • Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

        For What It’s Worth:

        The Mark Richt “wins 10 games a year” trope isn’t true. It was true for his first five years in which he won a couple of SEC Titles and three division titles. He averaged 10.4 wins per season in those first five seasons.

        In his last 10 years, he averaged 9.4 wins per season. He dropped a full game from his win average. If you want to know why he was fired, there it is. He couldn’t sustain the success of his first five years (and we all know the many reasons why, no need to rehash). He was the victim of the expectations he created in those five years.

        His average wins per season at Georgia for his entire career is under 10. For his career at UGA he had 146 wins, good for 9.7 wins per season, and that includes bowl wins and losses.


        • Macallanlover

          Weak sauce, he was a 10 wins a year guy to everyone but nitpickers who would round down at 9.7+. I can agree that Mark lost some of his spark after Katherine’s cancer, but you are the only person i have seen dumb enough to say he didn’t lead us to 10 wins a game over his career (not that there aren’t others who hate to give him his due for getting UGA in the position KS found. A sorry lot you are too!)


          • Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

            The only person dumb here is you, Macallanlover. You can’t call me dumb, while you’ve just proven that applies more to you and not expect a response. You have no idea how math works, do you?

            If someone averages 9.7 wins per season in a career, you do not round up to 10 wins per season because by averaging those 9.7 wins per season, it means they AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 WINS A SEASON.

            Rounding-up doesn’t apply in a statistical situation like this. He averaged what he averaged, and it’s not 10 wins per season. Even if he averaged 9.99 wins per season, that’s not 10 wins per season. You don’t round up. What are you, a child?

            I showed you where during his first five years he averaged 10.4 wins a season. I then showed you he dropped an entire win per season down to 9.4 over his final 10 seasons. So for 2/3’s of his time as coach at UGA, the majority of those years, he averaged a little better than 9 wins per season. That is was dropped him below the 10-win plateau.

            It’s not “not giving him his due.” I’m giving him exactly his due. He averaged 9.7 wins a year, which is certainly not 10 wins a year.

            FFS dude, your feelings don’t change what is.


            • Watchman

              The thing about Richt’s drop off in wins (whatever the reason) is this: His first five years, the more successful part of his tenure, the NCAA was still playing the eleven game seasons. Starting in 2006 with the twelve game schedule, winning as much or almost as much meant losing at least one more game per year on average. If you look at the win percentage by season, the divide become much more apparent.


              • Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

                It can be said that unlike Corch Meyers and Saban who used that extra game every year to win an extra game every year, Richt did not. He lost his fastball, especially when you consider that extra game almost always went to a G5 or FCS team.


              • Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

                Also, not to be contradictory guy, but we did play 12 regular season games in 2002 and 2003, fwiw.


  6. Dylan Dreyer's Booty

    Kirby has the better job, because he has a realistic chance of true success where he is. Good for Bob and what he has done at KY, but he will never have a chance to grab the ring.


    • Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

      That’s not the argument. Look, I was the one who started this with a thread I sent to Andy Staples on twitter back in February.

      The basic idea is, is it better to be the best coach at a program with lower expectations, like Cutcliffe, Brohm, or Stoops, or leave for a football program in a big conference that has insane expectations relative to their history, like Michigan State or South Carolina? If you win 8-9 games a year at Duke, Kentucky, and Perdue, you’re the best coach they ever had. If you win 8-9 games at a place like Michigan State and South Carolina, they’re going to fire you because the fans and administrations there have insane expectations. Programs like Alabama, Ohio State, even Georgia SHOULD expect to win conference titles and national titles. Yes, even us. But South Carolina winning a conference title? It’s insane, but the relative success they had under Spurrier gave them expectations that don’t match their historical performance.

      This was when Luke Fickell was decided to stay at Cincinnati or go to Michigan State. My argument was, stay at Cincinnati. Right now, he’s King Shit of Awesome Mountain at Cincinnati. If he leaves that to go to a second tier Big-10 team that is always slotted behind tOSU and PSU and usually Michigan all in the same division, it’s going to be worse for him because he can never get that program to where the fans and administration believe they can get to in their poor misguided hearts.

      When you’re a successful G5 school, wait until a tier-1 P5 school opens. Or if not then, weigh it against what division you’ll be in. PJ Fleck did that and went to Minnesota, a big state school in the far easier division of the Big-10. He can compete for division titles there. If he had gone to Indiana or Michigan State, it would’ve been the wrong choice regardless of the money.

      Same with South Carolina in the SEC. If you’re in a great situation in the G5 or at a tier-3 P5 school where you exceed expectations, why would you beat your head against the wall having to compete against not only Georgia and FU, but Clemson, too? The fans will never appreciate your 8-9 wins a year even though that would be far better than their .512 historical winning percentage.

      So the idea is, it’s better to do well in the G5 or exceed expectations at a tier-3 P5 program than go coach at a tier-2 program. Wait for your opportunity to get a tier-1 program. Unless the divisions are unbalanced, as they are in the Big-10 or ACC. If you can take any job in the division opposite Clemson and FSU, do it. You’ll always be able to compete for divisions.

      Seriously, that’s why, and I know I’ll get grumbling here, but it’s why the NATS is secretly on the down low a pretty good job. The expectations are low, the fans deal more in making excuses than in having high expectations, you can sell the city of Atlanta to recruits and a good education to their parents (God knows you can’t sell good looking co-eds, heh), clean up on the 3-star and errant 4-stars in Georgia that Georgia, Bama, Clemson, Florida, and tOSU can’t sign, and you should be able to compete year in and year out for a spot in the ACC Title Game to get mauled by Clemson or FSU. Really, there is no reason other than Fish Fry’s stubbornness why the NATS shouldn’t have been winning 9 games every year, not just every couple of years. Chan almost got there. They have a good shoe deal, they have a great city, yeah they have to overcome the shit alumni base that doesn’t donate, but they get good money from the ACC and that shoe deal with Adidas.

      Put it another way, if I had the choice between little brother jobs, whether to take Auburn, NATS, or South Carolina, I’m taking the NATS job. The chances for relative success (division titles and possible NY6 spots) is better and the expectations are far more reasonable. And I can live in Buckhead or Vinings or somewhere else that’s nice and not shitass Columbia or Auburn. Therefore, the NATS job is better than the Auburn and South Carolina job.


  7. I just need UK to beat UF. I’ll send them a check.


  8. Muttley

    Kentucky football can be summed up forever by this gem from their post-game radio host, during the jubilation after our 2006 debacle up there:

    “We’re way past Shreveport and Papa John’s- I’m talkin’ MUSIC CITY, BABY!”

    That’s burned into my ears for all of time.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. FlyingPeakDawg

    Kirby AND UGA admin should win SEC East 3 of 4 years, SECCG 1 in 4 years, MNC 1 in 10 years. Clock’s ticking.