When you’ve lost Mr. Conventional Wisdom…

Oh, boy.

Back in late May I did a radio interview and was asked about my confidence level on whether or not we would have a 2020 college football season.

I said, in effect, that we would definitely play college football this Fall but we just didn’t know what it would look like. The only variable was whether or not there would be fans in the seats. Based on the folks I had talked to at the time, I was extremely confident that the 2020 season would start on time and play its entire schedule.

On June 26 in this space I wrote that I was starting to get a little nervous over the number positive tests among players who had returned to campus. But I still thought we were going to play.

Today, for the first time, I’m genuinely concerned that we’re not going to be able to play college football in 2020.

Sure hope I’m wrong.

But when you talk to college officials you can hear the frustration in their voices. They’ve been working daily since mid-March, participating in countless ZOOM calls, trying to put together a workable plan that would allow the games to be played safely. With enough work and enough planning, it could be a win-win for the players and the fans.

Their hope and belief was that as the summer moved along the numbers would get better and there would be positive momentum to play, even if there were no fans in the seats.

I’m not mocking here.  When all you’ve got for a plan is hope and belief in the face of a pandemic, you ain’t got much.  And that’s still all they’ve got.

**–We’re running out of time. A decision of some kind is coming late July or early August. The decision to go or not go with the season needs to be made a minimum of four weeks out from the first game. I expect the commissioners who run the Power 5 will wait as long as possible in order to get the best data possible.

**–If a conference like the SEC decides that the season will not start on time, it could cancel the season or leave it open ended to see if a window of opportunity appears.

Worth noting: There are five Saturdays in October and four in November if the SEC wanted to play a reduced schedule.

They’re going to hang on to the possibility of playing in 2020, stunted format or otherwise, as long as they can, so I expect postponement rather than outright cancellation in the short term.  They’ll hope as long as they can.

33 Comments

Filed under Mr. Conventional Wisdom

33 responses to “When you’ve lost Mr. Conventional Wisdom…

  1. MGW

    Man I love football but do you know what I REEEEALLY LOVE?!?! My right to not wear a mask!

    Liked by 1 person

  2. PTC DAWG

    Doesn’t matter…we’ll all be dead in two weeks. Although that rate continues to plummet.

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  3. ASEF

    How would you send a team to the Houston area right now? Shortages of hospital beds and healthcare workers. Steep rise in EMT calls arriving to people already dead or dead on their way to help.

    Covid response nationally has been beset by a total shit show of obstinate denial. And that’s creating a background level tsunami of virus that is going to swamp CFB. When the hope was that summer would dampen the spread.

    Maybe these Red State summer Covid hot spots will help get enough people on the same page to save CFB. But it’s hard to see that happening.

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    • Texas’ death count rise is alarming. I, like everyone, hope it’s a blip. But coupled with reports of over-whelmed hospitals it seems like they’re in the early stages of a wave.

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      • PTC DAWG

        I would like to see a chart like I posted above for Texas..or the whole country…

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      • junkyardawg41

        I can’t see a path for this year — regardless of hot spot. I feel that way after the report came out of the UK yesterday that said 78 percent of people who tested positive for COVID-19 showed no symptoms when they got swabbed. Either the tests are bad (which prevents playing in the Fall) or the non-symptom people spreading it can’t be controlled. I guess a 3rd option would be “it’s not that bad if those numbers are right” camp. That’s when hospitalizations and death rates come back.

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      • Napoleon BonerFart

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  4. Connor

    If the SEC goes to a truncated schedule that involves only conference teams for flexibility (as the big 10 is rumored to be considering), won’t that dramatically change the schedule strength calculus? Won’t the teams that currently have tough cross divisional opponents inevitably get a lighter set of opponents, and those that had an easy cross division draw see their schedule get tougher?

    We probably aren’t playing at all but it’s interesting to think about; if we all dropped our non-conference games and UGA added Arkansas and Ole Miss and Florida added Alabama and A&M fore example, who’s the overwhelming favorite in the east now?

    Liked by 1 person

  5. I don’t expect anything other than a continued rise in cases when we reach the early August deadline. I expect a monster spike mid-August if K-12 districts open up, and that alone I think will keep numbers high enough that any semblance of a normal season is out of the question. Soooo…. how do we feel about a diminished product?
    For me, I’m really excited to see what Monken will do with all the weapons. I want to see if Newman is as good as advertised. The defense? Oh hell yeah. If we have to shorten and delay the season I’d love to see them go to a 9 game schedule starting the first weekend in October. Conference only with the tech game at the end of the season.(Or maybe the opener?). If Georgia is as good as advertised I can see them taking all the marbles. If they play only conference opponents and one traditional rival an MNC with an asterisk won’t be quite as jaded.
    Just my .02.

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  6. McNease

    I’m guessing the “window of opportunity” won’t be open until November 4th.

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  7. I gave up hope for a football season weeks ago and have been planning accordingly. Seems like a good year to finally take up deer hunting.

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  8. Bigshot

    Like I’ve said all along. There will be no football this year and who knows if there ever will be football?

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  9. practicaldawg

    It’s almost August and Tony’s here to let us know we’re running out of time

    Like