Shot.
![Screenshot_2020-07-17 NCAA on Twitter Although testing and contact tracing infrastructure have expanded considerably, the v[...]](https://blutarsky.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/screenshot_2020-07-17-ncaa-on-twitter-although-testing-and-contact-tracing-infrastructure-have-expanded-considerably-the-v....png?w=500)
Chaser.
![Screenshot_2020-07-17 Stewart Mandel on Twitter Just how bad does something have to be for the NCAA to say, wow, look at th[...]](https://blutarsky.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/screenshot_2020-07-17-stewart-mandel-on-twitter-just-how-bad-does-something-have-to-be-for-the-ncaa-to-say-wow-look-at-th....png?w=500)
How bad? This bad:
… There’s no better way to summarize Mark Emmert’s career than the silence on the other end of the phone when you ask an athletic administrator a simple question: “What is the most significant thing Mark Emmert has done in 10 years?”
It’s the same answer to what significant leadership he’s illustrated during the pandemic. And why his legacy on the president’s position will be that the only thing he managed to improve has been the job’s earning power.
Plus, we’ll always have some nifty graphics. And, more and more with each passing day, a pandemic that looks like it’s going to rob us of a college football season in some form or fashion.
Get The Picture 
Yeah, can’t effectively model human responses to pathogens or politics, much less a hybrid of the two.
The sun belt is just a Covid cluster-**** right now.
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Didn’t GA, FL, TX, and others open where the line starts a negative slope in April? According to the graph, it was until the first week or so of June that the slope went from negative to positive. Why blame the reopening of America on something that happens two months prior?
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Gov. Greg Abbott acknowledged in an interview with ABC-7 that he allowed bars in the state to reopen too soon.
“If I could go back and redo anything, it probably would have been to slow down the re-opening of bars,” the governor said, expressing regret over his decision and “now seeing in the aftermath of how quickly the coronavirus spread in the bar setting.”
The lesson Abbott said he learned is that “a bar setting, in reality, just doesn’t work with a pandemic.” He noted that patrons “go to bars to get close and to drink and to socialize, and that’s the kind of thing that stokes the spread of the coronavirus.”
https://www.newsday.com/news/health/coronavirus/transmission-of-virus-on-national-scale-1.46107838
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-dr-fauci-warns-reopening-too-early-risks-needless-suffering-and-death.html
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Common sense doesn’t fit the narrative….never mind we are testing many more people…
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By narrative you mean “the facts” right?
https://covidactnow.org/us/ga/?s=712117
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Interesting site. I wonder if they left off the most important stat, deaths, for any particular reason? It’s probably just an honest oversight that they don’t report that deaths continue to decline.
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https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2020/07/16/florida-hits-record-covid-19-death-toll-desantis-positivity-stabilization/5453554002/
https://thehill.com/homenews/coronavirus-report/507591-texas-reports-record-highs-for-daily-coronavirus-cases-deaths
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How is the number of tests relevant? If all the tests were negative, that would be great and I would want to know that. Help me understand; isn’t the point of testing to find out how big your problem is? And then, when you find out how big it is, you do something to address it. Why is not knowing what you have a good thing? Also, the green lines on that graph shows what happens when you test aggressively early, and address the problem instead of just denying it exists and hoping it will go away. I am not sure you know what common sense is.
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Math is a forbidden topic. But with broad brushstrokes, I’ll say that testing protocols have changed. Rates aren’t reported. Raw numbers are. One is useful. One is alarmist. That’s common sense.
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Rates are reported. Maybe not on Fox News or wherever you get your drivel, but they are available.
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Wow. Devastating argument. Derek would be proud.
However, if you actually followed the information, rather than headlines, you would know that increased testing certainly leads to increased positive cases, even rates. People are now able to get tested because of contact tracing. School kids are getting tested before going back. Non-essential, but at-risk populations are also getting tested now. So it’s not surprising. And it’s common sense.
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Positive test rate
GEORGIA
A relatively high percentage (15.6%) of COVID tests were positive, which indicates that testing in Georgia is limited and that most cases may go undetected. At these levels, it is hard to know how fast COVID is actually spreading, and there is risk of being surprised by a second wave of disease. Caution is warranted.
Contacts traced
GEORGIA
Per best available data, Georgia has 1,300 contact tracers. With an average of 3,421 new daily cases, we estimate Georgia needs 17,105 contact tracing staff to trace all new cases in 48 hours, before too many other people are infected. This means that Georgia is likely able to trace only 8% of new COVID infections in 48 hours. These low levels of tracing suggest there may be an active outbreak underway in Georgia, or that little tracing capacity exists. Strong caution warranted.
From: https://covidactnow.org/about
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This weekly report includes plenty of information about testing and cases, but I’m less focused on daily new cases at the state-wide level right now, because with expanded testing and contact tracing, we’re finding more cases in younger people and more asymptomatic cases.
Many of the cases we’re finding now are asymptomatic, whereas in March and early April, we were only testing the sickest of patients for COVID.
I also show the percent of cases that require hospitalization or ICU admission. These rates have been declining overall, though the hospitalization rate is up slightly this week. While cases are increasing, they seem to be milder cases requiring less intervention than earlier on in the pandemic.
Do us a favor Derek. Still to name calling. Context is just beyond you.
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ICU headroom used
GEORGIA
Georgia has about 2,833 ICU beds. Based on best available data, we estimate that 61% (1,728) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 1,105 ICU beds remaining, we estimate 954 are needed by COVID cases, or 86% of available beds. This suggests hospitals cannot absorb a wave of new COVID infections without substantial surge capacity. Aggressive action urgently needed
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Like hotels, hospitals need to fill beds in order to stay financially viable, and hospitals frequently run at 85% utilization or higher in their ICU’s especially, and they have surge capacity they can implement if needed.
Context, junior. Context.
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Playpen.
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ICU headroom used
CONNECTICUT
Connecticut has about 674 ICU beds. Based on best available data, we estimate that 44% (296) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 378 ICU beds remaining, we estimate 31 are needed by COVID cases, or 8% of available beds. This suggests there is likely enough capacity to absorb a wave of new COVID infections
Massachusetts has about 1,860 ICU beds. Based on best available data, we estimate that 26% (477) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 1,383 ICU beds remaining, 80 are needed by COVID cases, or 6% of available beds. This suggests there is likely enough capacity to absorb a wave of new COVID infections.
Maine has about 402 ICU beds. Based on best available data, we estimate that 43% (172) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 230 ICU beds remaining, 9 are needed by COVID cases, or 4% of available beds. This suggests there is likely enough capacity to absorb a wave of new COVID infections.
Vermont has about 94 ICU beds. Based on best available data, we estimate that 29% (27) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. Of the 67 ICU beds remaining, we estimate 6 are needed by COVID cases, or 9% of available beds. This suggests there is likely enough capacity to absorb a wave of new COVID infections.
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Playpen. COVID stats are always Playpen.
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Playpen.
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There is a much higher positivity rate. It is not just more testing. You don’t find more positives unless there are more sick people.
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Look folks, it’s not actually hot outside. We just have too many thermometers. They don’t have as many in the arctic circle and it’s cooler there. Facts.
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Thanks for the laugh.
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Uggggh …….
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Common sense. The April shutdown had suppressed infection rates and many/most people were still practicing social distancing and wearing PPE after reopening, it took awhile for the virus to establish a base. In my Florida town, you still saw lots of mask-wears in May, but Memorial Day marked the decline in PPE and social distancing. Predictions that the virus would “disappear” in the summer heat made many believe we were in the clear. Masks disappeared for awhile and the virus came roaring back. Our hospital ran out of ICU beds last week, they are converting regular rooms and are clearing out an entire floor to house just the Covid patients.
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Can’t speak for FL and TX but bars and dine-in restaurants didn’t open until later in GA.
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Maybe someone slipped a gummy into my morning coffee – but I don’t get it. What was the NCAA supposed to do to save the football season?
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The same as anyone else in position of authority:
Lead.
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our leader would rather advertise beans form the Oval Office.
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Playpen.
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My bad Sen.
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I don’t really have any idea what they have or haven’t done, but I’d guess that they could put out messages to the public advocating social distancing, face masks, and so on. Emmert could go on sports radio/TV shows and talk about the need to get this thing under control in order to have a college football season (and all the revenues that go along with it). They could also lobby state and federal government to enforce preventive measures, such as limiting gatherings and mandating face masks.
Maybe they’ve done all that and I just missed it, but I doubt it.
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There are quite a few things a competent organization could have done, but that has never really been the NCAA’s wheelhouse. Honestly I’m just relieved they aren’t counting COVID tests as impermissible benefits.
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Reporters asked Stacey Osborne to list Emmert’s accomplishments. At first, the silence was interpreted as a “no comment” until she muttered “I got nothing”.
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There was always going to be a spike when people returned to normal life. Hong Kong Disneyland was closed again because there was an uptick in new cases in China who has done all of the social distancing and prevention and testing that can be done. (There was no proof that HKDL had anything to do with the new cases, but it was closed just in case.) There will also be a spike of non-COVID related sickness as well when kids get back together because social distancing prevents the snot buckets from exposing each other to all manner of illnesses.
Option A is to wait it out in our caves until a vaccine is available. That would eliminate any possibility of a 2020 football season and 2021 could also be in jeopardy.
Option B is to allow those not in the vulnerable population to return to normal and weather the spike in cases until some level of herd immunity is established. Let the vulnerable continue to hide in their homes, socially distance, and shop on Amazon. That will also allow more treatments to be tested and better guidance can be developed on how different treatments respond. The sooner it runs through the population, the sooner it will die off and regular things can return like football. It’s probably already too late for the 2020 season at this point, but by 2021 it may be done.
Option C is to try and thread the needle by hoping cases stay low enough (while many people return to normal) that we don’t feel too guilty about encouraging players to play. This seems to be where most people land, and it makes the least amount of sense to me.
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Or we could have done what was done in the places represented by the green, blue and purple lines in the graph. Those represented by the red line were pretty obviously mislead.
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It’s interesting that Japan is included in that graph. We have the shaming part down, but the difference is you can’t shame the shameless. Also, Japan proved that you don’t have positive tests if you don’t test anyone.
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However they got there, they’re doing a helluva lot better than we are.
The nation of japan has the same number of deaths as Alabama. Alabama has a population that is 7.5 times smaller than the city of Tokyo.
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I’m sure that we’re all confident that you and the Insurance Industry will Snot Buckets…. “Guffaw”
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Odd that. harrumpf
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YOU CAN’T CALL OTHER PEOPLE’S KIDS “SNOT BUCKETS”.
JFC I can’t stop laughing. 🙂
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It ain’t the pandemic that’s robbing us of the season.
Lots of people would like to blame an impersonal virus, but we know who is pushing this end to the season, societal shutdown and panic porn.
We all know. Even those doing it.
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There are those willing to lose millions without even speaking the names of the guilty just so they can go along. That’s just how deep the conspiracy goes.
Espn, Disney, the SEC, CBS quietly will all lose money while, like you, lacking the courage state the names of the guilty who are doing this without cause or recourse.
Coward.
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When your sample is a constantly moving target of hypochondriacs going through carwash setups to get tested you will never get useful data, just more cases and no answers.
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Unless you live in the places represented by the green, blue and purple lines in the graph. There, they have answers.
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