Today, in fun with stats

Here’s one to enjoy.

Screenshot_2020-08-07 Matt Brown on Twitter Random stat that leans heavily toward one team Most instances of an unranked te[...](1)

War Eagle!

46 Comments

Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

46 responses to “Today, in fun with stats

  1. Geezus

    Yeah, but D’Antonio?!? Wow.

    Like

  2. Valdawgsta

    Off the top of my head I’m remembering two of those dawg wins over Auburn as 06 and 2016. Proud to say I was at both. What were the others?

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    • Gaskilldawg

      Off the top of my head I would say 1970 would be one.

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      • Biggus Rickus

        And ’86 would be the other, I think. I only have the AP ranking, but Georgia dropped out after the loss to Florida that year.

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      • BA Baracus

        2016, 2006, and the other 2 were ’86 (fire hose game) & ’96 (Bobo to Allen at the buzzer, 5-OT game) — and I’m happy to say I was there for both of those.

        Actually, I’m 3-0 in games attended at the barn (the other being ’92, when we laid down on the pile at the end & the clock ran out on them on the goal line), so… if anybody wants to sponsor any future trips, I’m game. 🙂

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  3. Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

    I dunno… doesn’t that just mean we were unranked a lot at the end of the year?

    Kinda feels like a self-own.

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    • The Truth

      Don’t most of these “ranked team” stats mean ranking at the time of the game? I would expect a win over the War Plainsgers would give us a bump in the polls.

      Also, doesn’t this suggest Michigan St has been one of the most overlooked teams? Also, wonder how many of those wins over UM, ND, and anOSU might have been in the same year — but if so, how did they stay unranked?

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      • Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

        I don’t know, re: MSU. They’re one of those NATS-like teams where their biggest rival has another team as a bigger rival, like with us and Floriduh. And unlike the NATS, they don’t even have privilege of saving that game until the final game, either. MSU is like a little brother squared.

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    • MGW

      The “versus top whatever teams” Or “as a top whatever” stat used for pretty much any purpose is…. not useless but about as fraught with problems a stat can get.

      For example if you use “at the time of the game” then you’ve got small sample size and ranking methodologies involved. The team will rarely finish ranked anywhere near where they were when you played, which essentially makes the stat a fiction based on the presumption that perception was reality at the time of the game.

      If you use “at the end of the season,” then the fact that you beat them devalues the achievement of actually beating them, especially on the higher end of the rankings where a single loss can cost a team several spots. On top of that you’ve got the issue of injuries, emerging/benched players, and general development of a team across the course of a season.

      Over ranking, under ranking, disparate schedules, bowl games matched per contract rather than parity, etc. the list of factors that cloud those stats goes on and on and on.

      There’s something credible to it for sure (for example look at Dantonio up there… funky stats or not that man clearly can “coach em up”). But generally those stats just have to be taken with a massive grain of salt and the context almost always provides an alternative explanation to what the bare stats show.

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      • Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

        Yeah, for me, a much better stat, especially for coaches, is a straight ahead, “versus ranked teams” which is almost always at the time of the game. I know there are instances where they might not be ranked by the end of the year or whatnot, but the fact is, those are still most likely pretty decent teams.

        When you look at Mark Richt’s record vs top-5, top-10, and top-25 teams his first 5 years, it’s very good. You then look at those stats in his last 10 years and it completely illustrates the problems with Richt’s final 10 years.

        Now take those three columns on a spreadsheet and apply them to Sideshow Dan the Clown’s career vs. Mark Dantonio or Bill Snyder’s career.

        Sideshow Dan has a mythical reputation in the media for developing 2 and 3-star players into Goliath beaters that just isn’t true when you look at his record vs. top-5, top-10, and top-25 teams.

        Dantonio and Snyder’s records there far surpass MuLLLen’s records.

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        • MGW

          Dantonio and Snyder do surpass Mullen’s achievement at State, but the only real difference to me is longevity when, you consider the competition they faced. More big wins for those guys, but Ohio State and Michigan were not the same (until Meyer came on board) as what Mississippi State was dealing with under Mullen, and neither was the Big 12.

          Richt… the highs were high, but normally destroyed by bad luck or by one of the lows (inexplicable early season losses). SOOOOO close, but this ain’t horseshoes or hand grenades.

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  4. Between the Hoses – 1986 in JHS … I was there.

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  5. HoleDiggingMutt

    Per a visual scan of last year’s media guide, y’all nailed the games and years, with the 1970 game just squeaking in under that 50 year limit….

    1970 – UGA 31, #8 Auburn 17 – @ Auburn
    1986 – UGA 20, #8 Auburn 16 – @ Auburn (Between the Hoses Game)
    2006 – UGA 37, #5 Auburn 15 – @ Auburn
    2016 – UGA 13, #9 Auburn 7 – @ Athens

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    • David H.

      Before I looked at the comments, I was guessing it was an every-ten-years thing: 1986, 1996, 2006, 2016. But Auburn must not have been top-10 in that wild 4-OT game in 1996 (we certainly weren’t ranked for that one). 1970 was a bit before my memory.

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  6. Scuba

    As long as Kirby is home I’m happy to enjoy those four knowing he’ll keep us away from being eligible to add to that list. I like songs about trucks and Auburn still suxs.

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  7. Dawg with no fleas

    That ‘06 game was so much fun. Tre battle with 3 interceptions and kregg lumpkin with “the stiff arm of the year”. Felt like the first game where Stafford started to “get it” and the offense rallied around him. First of three wins against ranked teams to finish the year.

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  8. Go Dawgs!

    This makes me really happy because F Auburn forever and ever.

    But look at Michigan State, out there just ruining lives! lol

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    • Go Dawgs!

      Also, i was on the sidelines at Jordan-Hare for that ’06 game covering it for a local TV station and at one point when we were up by three or four touchdowns I was shooting a crowd shot of the dejected barners sitting there like their lives were ruined and in the crowd of blue and orange there was one Georgia fan just standing there with a big ol’ cheese eatin’ grin just looking around happy. When he saw me filming him he just put up a hand and waved. He made the air that night!

      Liked by 3 people

    • Nashville West

      As a long time notre dame hater I’ve always had a soft spot for the Spartans.

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  9. Sanford222view

    It wasn’t a win so I realize it doesn’t count for this stat but, I was in the Auburn student section when Zeier and Juan Daniels ended Buster Brown and Auburn’s winning streak by tying with the Tigers in 1994.

    Daniels pointed to the Auburn student section after his long TD catch which I feel was him seeing my lone red UGA hat in the sea of orange and blue Auburn students. 😉 I had a lot of cups rain down on me after that play!

    Liked by 3 people

  10. 2016 Auburn really is like kirby in a nutshell. We didnt score an offensive TD. But 21 to 10 first downs. We simply played great defense and out physicality’d them. Eason was 20 if 31, no int, chubb with just over 100.

    It took that season to get there, but that was his goal. Grind and be meaner

    Liked by 1 person

  11. DawgStats

    Am I the only one that thinks that AU being T10 and UGA unranked should RARELY happen? UGA should never be unranked enough times to be on this list

    Liked by 1 person

    • Corch Irvin Meyers, New USC Corch (2021)

      Yeah, that was my point. This feels like a self-own. A list I don’t want any part of at any time.

      Liked by 1 person

  12. 80dawg

    That just tells me how OSU, MICH, & ND are over-rated way too much most years.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. Mayor

    UGA got the best draw it could have. Why are you guys bitching? FU drew ATM and will likely lose to them.

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