First, a refresher on what came out last night:
The folks at ESPN have been busy revising the stats in the wake of that. Here’s how FPI now ranks SEC teams’ strength of schedule:
- Arkansas: 1
- Mississippi State: 3
- South Carolina: 5
- Ole Miss: 6
- Tennessee: 7
- Missouri: 8
- Auburn: 9
- Kentucky: 10
- Texas A&M: 12
- Alabama: 14
- Vanderbilt: 16
- LSU: 20
- Georgia: 22
- Florida: 23
SEC StatCat ran the schools through the last set of Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings and came up with this:
The SEC said it would add the two games with strength of schedule in mind and while these two statistical approaches don’t completely see eye to eye, they do indicate that was what happened, at least to the extent of making sure the conference powerhouses weren’t seeing their schedules overloaded. While that had the obvious effect of making Arkansas’ life miserable, it did mean that the chances of schools like Alabama, Florida, Georgia and LSU making the CFP field weren’t diminished. (You could argue that the SEC doesn’t see much of a bowl future for the 2020 season, too.)
Selfishly speaking, Georgia made out like a bandit with the changes. Both statistical models show there to be almost no difference in the schedule strength for the Dawgs and Gators now. One of Mullen’s real advantages over Smart for 2020 just disappeared.
That all being said, there are two unknowns remain before we can fully assess how this plays out. One is under the conference’s control, that being the schedule order. For example, what kind of November will Tennessee wind up with?
The other is the coronavirus itself. Sure, that’s one daunting gauntlet that Arkansas is looking to run, but what happens if there’s a week when a healthy Hog team faces off against a squad that’s lost, say, 15 or 20 players that have tested positive?
Any thoughts, y’all?