Gatoring, 2020 style


While the defense is Florida’s backbone, the consensus is they won’t be anywhere near the title discussion if their offense takes a step back. The SP+ is confident enough in UF’s offense to have them ranked 12th ahead of this fall. If Kyle Trask can keep Florida’s offense humming, they have nothing to worry about. However, losing a decent amount of receivers paired with a style of play that’s reliant on yards after the catch screams he’s due to regress in 2020. And if the Gators’ ground game remains terrible, that might be all she wrote. While Florida may have gotten a pass defensively, half of their opponents are ranked top 20 with three others being good enough to be top 40. Only Vanderbilt and Arkansas fall outside of that range at this point in time. Florida might be a trendy pick to represent the East with the league’s easiest schedule, but their success hinges on their offense picking up where it left off.

It’s Mullen’s side of the ball, then, that’s the key.  Interesting.


Georgia @ Florida: Projected Margin Georgia by 2.5

Like you would except from a rivalry game of this magnitude feature the East’s top 2 teams, the SP+ figures the Florida-Georgia game will be highly contested. It truly could go either way; but as of today, the Dawgs are projected to win by about a field goal. Florida enters as the more well-rounded team. Both its offense and defense rank top 12 in the initial SP+. Georgia, of course, is led by is dominant defense. Like last year, passing should present Florida its best path to victory. Even if the Gators fix their ground game, Georgia’s formidable front stands to be the best against the run in the conference. On a down-to-down basis in SEC play last year, the Dawgs were average versus the pass. Kyle Trask has to rise to this occasion if he wants the honor to be the SEC’s QB1. On the other side of the ball, Todd Grantham’s prudence with blitzes might allow Georgia to take advantage of Florida’s defense on early downs. With the 2nd-worst Pressure Rate, Florida’s opponents were allowed to be more surgical though the air. The Gators finished with a bottom 6 Defensive Passing Success Rate in league play. Still, Florida stands to win if their offense shows up bests Kirby Smart’s bunch.

In last year’s meeting, Georgia made Florida one-dimensional on offense and rode that to a win behind what I hope was a worse offense than Grantham will seek to control this year.  I do think his last sentence is accurate.  It’s just that I don’t see that happening.


Filed under Gators, Gators..., Stats Geek!

8 responses to “Gatoring, 2020 style

  1. Kyle Tras[h] seems get a LOT more love from the talking heads who have a narrative to push (Florida’s back, baby. Did you see that win against Virginia?) than from the statistical guys.

    I saw a Handbag offense that wasn’t effective at all until Kirby decided to give yardage in exchange for clock.

    With a reasonably functioning offense, we would have put up 30+ on them. If I were a betting man, I would be loading up on -2.5.

    Liked by 5 people

  2. NotMyCrossToBear

    If, and it’s a very big if, we play UF full strength against full strength I expect a comfortable win. I believe we have better coaches and players. I’ve been thinking that all year and that says a lot for a guy who went to UGA from 90-94.


  3. Previously Paul

    I just hope we actually get to play this game. I have a feeling the season will be shut down before we get to Jacksonville. I know North Carolina kept their athletes on campus after sending their students home. I don’t think that’s going to happen on a large scale. Once COVID heats back up and the flu starts too, I think most everyone goes back online. At that point ‘but we need the money’ isn’t really going to get traction. Not to mention, the athletes themselves will likely see that juncture as another opportunity to get together and make some demands. Which I’m okay with.


  4. FlyingPeakDawg

    Newman will have a Newton like performance against an overly aggressive gator D that will fail to keep containment. The RPO for both Newman and our RBs will work and receivers will sit down in open areas on 3rd & Grantham. Trask’s uni is gonna be dirty. Dawgs by 10 at least.


  5. practicaldawg

    Why is UF the more well rounded team? It’s that saying they are more average on both sides of the ball?


  6. Down Island Way

    Only if you prefer reality, to say…. trendy pick does slim margin for error/regression mean anything on the field of play….too many if and or maybes to convince even me that FU is going to be the defensive juggernaut while the offense scores 28 a game..with no cupcakes on the schedule, reality is a bitch….#FTMF


  7. theotherdoug

    Here is Florida’s best, likely, and worst case scenarios:

    Florida either needs Trask to turn into Joe Burrows or the running game to take a big leap. Both of those could happen, but they’re not likely.

    Most likely is Mullen schemes and the offense is just like last year. There aren’t any big changes to personnel or the coaching staff.

    Florida’s worst case scenario is what happened to UGA and Fromm last year: What if teams figure out how to make the game manager QB struggle?


  8. W Cobb Dawg

    secstatcat said one thing that was accurate in the whole piece: “…Florida is a team due for some regression.” The rest of the piece (article?) was made up and flatulent.

    Liked by 1 person